Tlou Energy Share Discussion Threads

[donkey40] 15/12/2018 14:36

Just listened to this. Possibilities and opportunities....

One thought - the mini LNG he says doesn’t cost much; ammonia and fertiliser are real opportunities. Why not accelerate these opportunities then? Why do they have to keep waiting for Govt power to be their first to market project? I am confident shareholders would like to see progress rather than constant reference to opportunities. Why can’t TG clear up Why they have to keep waiting for Govt - there is a disconnect here between the spoken word and the management actions....

[donkey40] 15/12/2018 10:35

Andrew, let’s tey break that down a bit. This time last year, everyone was excited to hear seismic and RFP outcomes. Seismic result was good; RFP delay has meant broadly a year has been wasted. More shares issued and much of that money spent - for no tangible progress. The RFP outcome can only be up to 10mw award since that is all they bid for. Govt are not going to say We think you should deliver more to us .... given that the tender was Tell is what you can deliver at what price and we will decide what you get.
My sense is (and it is only a sense) that they do not want to spend the bigger bucks drilling the lateral wells until the RFP outcome is either awarded or management has a better sense of the landscape ahead. The noises from internal Bots are simply terrible!! The BDP is tearing itself apart with the Masisi Khama spat and This really can be terribly destructive. Lenders plain and simple do not like that sort of thing, so that makes me think Tlou have a better chance to deliver a smaller scale project than say Sekaname assuming the ‘word’ that they bid the full shilling is correct.
And for the life of me, if the Govt have not yet awarded the Owner Engineer and Transaction advisor mandates to help develop and deliver CBM, then how can Govt be in a position to award commercially under the 100mw RFP. That makes no logical sense to me; but nothing about the machinations of Govt workings in Bots is logical so you just never know...
In summary, over the year Tlou has bought a rig, drilled a few vertical wells/holes, pushed the paperwork further forward somewhat, spent a load more money, still have no commercial award. Depends if your glass if half full or empty I guess. Because it is Govt who ultimately open the path to market, all in all (for time being) my glass has to be half empty. And I am naturally an optimistic sort, so it has been a just dreadful year. And the share price reflects that. Also it could go lower if the RFP delays prolongs past mid Feb !

[andrewsr] 15/12/2018 09:15

IMHO Tlou are in better shape now, with a gas reserves upgrade + more to come and 3 new pods coming into production, than they were earlier in the year when they were 17p. OK, more shares in issue, but still massively oversold IMO.

[donkey40] 14/12/2018 00:13

Oz - your head is up your ass. The ‘enhanced̵7; flow rates are a stage managed plant by TG and team. Likewise the ‘more accuracy in data’. It is well understood there is a sh1tload of gas in Situ - Sekaname proved that innthe early ‘000s with Shell. What has always been missing is the Govt getting behind the gas players and giving them the commercial platform and fiscal support to allow a market to develop. Ex-Pr didn’t have a cut so he wasn’t incentivised; new Pr has other more Pressing and nb things to contend with ...

Tbh, it is just depressing it is taking soooo Long just to award a tender. Coz, once awarded, it likely is minimum 2 years to deliver meaningful power; maybe even 3 years. And the longer this RFP takes to be awarded, the closer we get to being caught up in October all party elections (where nothing happens 3 months before and maybe 6 months after).... And with an award, say Jan/Feb latest, the next step is negotiate a PPA with BPC who I am pretty sure are not going to guarantee to buy power. That will become a full on haggling match, where I expect the Lenders to say Sorry, no guarantee then no money honey....

I love the fact that the LSE sheep are blissfully oblivious to commercial and local realities ....

[satsuma1] 13/12/2018 17:23

What was it blisters said months ago? All the supporters are liars and sold out at big profits after pumping... now they’re apparently on 70% losses? Crimes!

[mr.oz] 13/12/2018 15:18

Yes , clear update imv

Enhanced flow rates expected in Jan onwards from Prod pod drilling and further accuracy in data = increase in reserves expected.
PPA with Govt expected Q1/2 regardless of RFP ( planning on marketing gas separately and have potential backers in "back pocket" )

[the manini] 13/12/2018 14:27

Interesting interview with Tony Gilby hTTps://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/11589/tlou-energy-s-tony-gilby-updates-on-lesedi-drilling-and-request-for-proposal-11589.html

[blisters] 12/12/2018 23:53

What was it Kenners always said, all those months ago?

Bought at 6 - sold at 8.

Smart boy that Kenners. Too bad the Gilby FanBoys are sitting on 70% LOSSES.

Why is that?

Because Gilby and the FanBoys are total LOSERS.

Short range Tectonic Forecast for Botswana...

Major Earthquake acomin' in Mid-February caused by TLOU Fracking.

And TLOU share price heading to worthless, just like Gilby and Clueless and Wacky-GaBacky.

HA HA HA !!!!!!!!!!!

[donkey40] 07/12/2018 21:20

Money down so good luck to you. My own view is Trump / China trade tariffs; Khama / Masisi ongoing boxing match (and likely to get much worse in short term); civil servants in Bots going on their 5 week end of year break means you would likely get in at cheaper levels before the RFP pilot is notified. My view is the earliest that gets awarded now is February (unless we hear this coming week).
But in the grand scheme, your 5p v around 4p is no big deal.

[adorling] 07/12/2018 16:03

Added 250k at 4.8p - will multibag from this price within 12 months and probably 6 months given the critical shortages of gas now being reported in Botswana and South Africa. Have a great weekend everyone!

[donkey40] 06/12/2018 23:58

From the most stable, least corrupt African country to this in less than 9 months. That takes some going !

[donkey40] 06/12/2018 12:48

Sorry to say but I think 4p will be tested soon.

[donkey40] 04/12/2018 23:38

You never told us - Waldorf or Statler ?

Windbag = Waldorf, and
Buzzstubble = Statler.
Match made in heaven !!

[mr.oz] 04/12/2018 20:18

But some of us are IMMATURE!!

[the manini] 04/12/2018 13:25

When companies don't update pi's say keeping investors up to date is important because 'news is the lifeblood of aim', when they do it's too trivial, shouldn't have bothered. Damned if you do damned if you don't...Yes it's not major news but it shows they're busy continuing to drill and progress is being made and is on track with no problems, I for one welcome being kept up to date. Some aim companies don't update for months on end and you start to wonder if they're actually doing anything!

[money4me] 04/12/2018 07:58

another trivial update just to keep reminding us they are doing some work. well done on drilling some holes. Christmas bonus for everyone