Tlou Energy Share Discussion Threads

[donkey40] 05/10/2018 00:48

Amazing that so many are sooooo excited anticipating a bid submission next week for 2mw power generation. I am sure Churchill has a famous quote that applies here. Never before have so many gullible fools been warned so often, and still they plunged to the depths of despair..... or something like that....

[donkey40] 04/10/2018 13:22

Jolly good read.
“Failure to win this initial tender would have a significant impact on the share price I would imagine” - so would I;
and
“....the whole area is desperate for power...”. Really?! What have they done for past few years since the word desperate was first promulgated to the masses. Are the lights on or off most of the time.

Anyway, the gist is right. The effort to sell the investment case is, as usual, overly dramatised. Yes power is needed; yes a good opportunity is available; it if the Govt is so damned supportive, man they have a funny way of showing their love.

[wiseacre] 04/10/2018 10:55

ShareProphets
Thursday 4 October 2018
The one stop source for breaking news, expert analysis, and podcasts on fast-moving AIM and LSE listed shares
EPIC code: TLOU
Tlou Energy has the ingredients in place to be successful - speculative long-term buy
By Gary Newman | Thursday 4 October 2018


In Africa things always tend to take far longer than people expect, and even more so when it comes to anything in the natural resources sector. Interest in, and the share price of, Tlou Energy (TLOU) seems to have waned and I think that has largely been as a result of some having far too optimistic timescales with regards to the company’s coal bed methane project at Lesedi, in Botswana.

The share price has drifted back to 6.5p on the ask currently, and has been even lower than that recently, but for me nothing has really changed in terms of the investment case here and I would still view it as a speculative buy with the potential to be worth a lot more in the future than the current £25 million market cap if things go to plan for the company.

It already has reserves and contingent resources in place and the management behind the company have history in the field of CBMs, plus there is plenty of potential for further upgrades from gas still in the prospective resources category.

In terms of the gas that it has already proven up, it has 2P reserves of 40.8bcf, and whilst that might not sound particularly exciting when taken on its own, it also has 3P reserves of 426bcf across its licences, plus plenty of potential from 2C contingent resources of 214bcf, and 3C of more than 3tcf. On top of the that the prospective resources from its other three licences could be more than 8.5tcf, although it is very early days and those licences are still at the exploration stage. Those of you who have experience of the natural resources sector will know that it is all about getting it out of the ground and monitising the asset, and in the case of Tlou that doesn’t look far away, although development will be phased and it is likely to take some time to see real returns in terms of profit.

The Botswana government has been very supportive of the project and a production licence is in place, but the success of Tlou will largely be driven by the success of it winning contracts for gas-to-power projects. So far it has already been short-listed as just one of two companies to tender for a 100MW plant, although that process has been dragging on longer than expected, and it is expected that development would be staged, starting with a 10MW plant. A pilot well drilling programme is now underway, and this could lead to an initial 2MW of power, which would be expanded up to 10MW as further wells were drilled.

The company seems to have been able to raise capital when it has needed to as well, including from institutional investors and the directors – with £2.4 million recently coming from African Alliance Botswana, plus a further £4.4 million odd from placings and an equity entitlement offer. I would still view this share as being highly speculative given the stage that it is at and there are still risks, and potential for things to go wrong – failure to win this initial tender would have a significant negative impact on the share price I would imagine.

But it is also worth remembering that Botswana is possibly the most stable country in the region in which to do business, plus the whole area is in desperate need of power generation, and given that Tlou not only has the resources, but also the necessary permits/licences to make use of that gas, I can see plenty of potential. I would consider this as a longer term buy from the 6.5p area, and if the company enjoys even a modicum of success, then I think you will be pleased with the eventual outc

[donkey40] 04/10/2018 00:32

That was rather funny.

Remind me, when did you last post something that talked about Tlou ...

[donkey40] 03/10/2018 18:11

Laurel & Hardy;
Tom & Jerry;
And & Dec;
Bill & Ben;
Ying & Yang;
and there is

Dinyang & Ftang, the happy couple on HC.

Who do you think you are kidding chaps.

[satsuma1] 03/10/2018 15:07

Donks if it goes down a few % you say its all doom and gloom and its a sign of how poor its doing. So at least stay consistent.

[the manini] 03/10/2018 15:03

Just shows then how it's ain't gonna take much to get this share price moving North!

[donkey40] 03/10/2018 14:36

Huge injection of energy - so far about 40k quid value traded. Massive!!

As always Buzz, you bring a smile to everyone

[satsuma1] 03/10/2018 12:39

i hate to disappoint you Blist and Donks but i am not in denial, nor do i have enough money invested here to lose any nights sleep even if it fell off a cliff.

[npwharf] 03/10/2018 12:17

Bit of life in the old share today. One week to go till submission.

[donkey40] 03/10/2018 10:06

As usual, the herd response is to attack the poster. I think you may have a point Blisters about ‘being in denial’.

As for Blisters over-stepping any mark - what were Tidd’s posts and Wordpress.com site then?! And Tlou stick or twist nonsense by 2050-capital on Twitter....

You guys are either a collective group of con-artists or just plain stupid. As you know, I don’t give you the intelligence of being con-artists.

[satsuma1] 03/10/2018 09:04

Asks me to ask myself something, even says he didn't need an answer.... makes a judgement about me because I didn't post an answer. Sound logic

[blisters] 02/10/2018 23:45

Guess the FanBoys don't do phllosophy or discussion. No surprises there then. Still, I asked a while back of Sats "what is the worst thing that could happen to Tlou". I asked it of himself. There was no need to reply. However, he seems to be either lying to himself or in denial.

Here is the worst thing that could happen to Tlou Energy. Third party investors, either in part or by way of take over, will simply state, in private, that the reserves and economic case for CBM at Lesedi are not viable. After that, the Bots Government will state that if the private sector is not interested in investing in CBM in Lesedi, then why should we?

Game over. Share price zero. Your savings and/or pension monies are gone forever.

Will that happen? Of course it will. Unless you sell of course, because BuzzyBoy was correct when he stated that you won't be able to get these in the 6's for much longer. Tlou is a zero-point destruction module for your savings.

You have been warned - and more than once.

[donkey40] 02/10/2018 23:35

Corrupt free and non-conflicted Botswana.

[donkey40] 30/9/2018 21:47

Anyone up for a philosophical discussion?

The 100mw RFP is a pilot project aimed at demonstrating the commercialability of turning CBM gas into sustainable power generation. The Govt of Bots therefore needs to be convinced they can rely upon local gas resources to supply sufficiently and sustainably into the country’s energy security mix.

It appears to be accepted that Tlou are bidding to deliver 2mw v Sekaname delivering 100mw. I personally cannot confirm this nor am I saying this is what either bidder is bidding; rather this is what the Boards and Twitter are saying is the nature of their bids.

If these 2 bid amounts are more or less correct, where do things stand? 2mw for 30 years v 100mw for 30 years? 2mw scalable (means what in reality) v someone bidding to deliver 100mw (specific quantum and probably take longer)? If one of them thinks they can deliver 100mw v the other saying only 2mw (has to be in a shorter time frame) - how on earth can Govt decide on the success or otherwise of a pilot project? Chances of success or success criteria - surely impossible since the bids are not compatible / comparable?

Great if anyone would like to discuss. So would I.