Titon Share Discussion Threads

[spob] 13/11/2013 14:11

Not being funny but this is the Titon thread

[profdoc] 12/11/2013 14:26

Rainmaker, I have finally managed to spend sometime looking at Mallett. I would value your comments on the following ideas. As you know, earlier this year I analysed Mallett, the antique dealer, after a numerical-only screen showed it to have a market capitalisation lower than the value of the current assets minus all liabilities on the balance sheet – at first glance a NCAV investment. However NCAV requires more than a superficial analysis. We also need to be (a) reassured that the prospects for the business are good, and (b) that the managers are both competent and act with integrity, particularly with regard to shareholder interests, and that (c) the business is financially stable. It was put on the rejection pile because it had produced years of losses on a turnover of £14m to £10m (declined over 5 years) combined with a management that thinks sucking £750,000 or more out of the firm each year is suitable reward for a job well done. I was also nervous about placing so much weight on an inventory of antiques valued either by cost/net realisable value or by 'external independent valuation' subsequently adjusted by the directors based on 'market movements' (which is used is not entirely clear to me). But the facts have changed over the last nine months and so the strength of the case for investment has improved. I'm grateful to 'Rainmaker' for his well-reasoned arguments for encouraging me to take a second look at the company.
Mallett has a market capitalisation of £10.7m at 80p. Based on the accounts for the six months to the end of June 2013 it has inventory of £11.46m, receivables of £5.2m and cash of £0.95m. Current liabilities are £6m and non-current liabilities (all pension deficit) are £1.5m. Thus NCAV is £10m, which is less than MCap. However one of the facts that has changed is that a freehold building has been sold with planning permission for flats. When the receipts come in, the cash on the BS will be boosted by around £2.5m. This helps alleviate worries over the 'flexibility' in valuing such slippery items as furniture. Furthermore Mallett holds a 23.75% stake in a prestigious annual antique fair, Masterpiece, which had a successful fourth year with visitor numbers rising by 20% to 34,000 this year spread over 8 days. While Mallett's share of the profits is a mere £85,000 (2011: £82,000) this business has potential to provide a low-capital-input-with-high-upfront-receipt-of-cash income for many years to come (Rainmaker points to high operational leverage given the fixed cost nature of the business; negative cash conversion cycle; absence of bad debt risk; and 'toll-gate' characteristics). Once established as an annual fixture there are good reasons to think that a business like this has a quality franchise (If it is well managed).
Which brings me to reasons for cautious optimism concerning managerial competence and shareholder orientation. Peter Gyllenhammar, the activist investor, has taken more than 29% of the equity and has entered discussions with the managers on matters of importance to shareholders (he withdrew an attempt to get elected to the Board in March 2013). Whether his suggestions/pressure have stimulated pro-shareholder action or whether the senior team woke from their five year slumber (while asleep they draw millions in remuneration and blamed the economic climate for costs exceeding revenue) and decided spontaneously to take action we do not know. But action has been taken:
(a) Director remuneration totalled £0.58 in 2012, down from £759,000 in 2011 (It was over £1m in 2008 when large losses were made!). No executive is receiving more than £160,000.
(b) The expensive showroom in New Bond Street has been vacated after a sale of the lease. By moving to Ely House the company saves £0.7m in costs per year and increases square footage by 50%. Given that losses last year were only around £0.3m a rental saving of £0.7m is highly significant. Note also that turnover appears to be unaffected by the lowered property costs.
(c) A plan is under way (or is it? – the latest interims suggest that the plan may be 'reviewed') to 'reduce substantially fixed costs in New York by subletting two floors of the Madison Avenue showroom' The sublet rental income is expected to equal the rent currently being paid on the whole building. Background: the USA operations lost £1.2m in 2011 and £275,000 in 2012
(d) The FD is in the process of leaving (the date has recently been put back to December 2013. He will not be replaced. This should save over £100,000 per year - significant for such a small company. I agree that company of this size needs merely a competent accountant rather than a finance director.
(e) Over the past five years staff cost have fallen from £2.4m to £1.8m while numbers have decreased from 53 to 35. Turnover has dropped as well, but the staff reduction remains an indicator of managers cutting cloth according to their means.
(f) The loss-making JHBA subsidiary has been sold off. More recognition that unprofitable activities should not be allowed to continue?
(g) I'm led to believe that the recent liquidation of major competitors has left Mallett as the 'go-to' place to deal in high-value antiques. Perhaps they can develop an economic franchise on the back of this to allow acceptable ROCE?
(h) In the last three years they have built up the showroom offering by displaying as much antiques held on assignment rather than owned by Mallett. This smart: low cash requirements but exploiting extraordinary resources of name, retail position and expertise
(i) An innovation: a website for selling antiques
(j) Peter Gyllenhammar says that the company has "superb reputation, skills and infrastructure". Respected in the market place but managers promoted beyond their competence to run a business for shareholder wealth maximisation?
(k) Managers have made efforts to establish the company in China, Brazil and other developing economies.

Where might share returns come from?
The four possible areas of improvement for NCAV firms are:
1. Earning power is lifted due either the industry economics improving, e.g. exit by competitors improves the returns for the survivors, or due to managerial change when a spirit of revival emerges or they are replaced. In the case of Mallett we have some evidence of both these effects being underway. Competitors have gone to the wall and (under pressure) the directors are cutting costs.
2. A sale or merger. A possibility that is in the wings, but I cannot see it yet.
3. Complete or partial liquidation. Highly unlikely given the potential recovery in antiques, the strong balance sheet and the potential of Masterpiece.

Questions
1. Is the managerial conversion to shareholder wealth pursuit real, imagined or put on for show?
2. How valuable is Masterpiece?
3. Will Gyllenhammar encourage a greater proportion of professional managers (rather than antique experts) in the Boardroom?
4. How cyclical is the antiques business? Will the economic upturn result in significantly greater sales?
5. Director shareholdings are at laughable levels – are their interests really aligned with shareholders?
6. Very high levels of receivables outstanding, for example at year end 2012 those outstanding for more than 120 days were over £1m. Do these well-healed customers not pay on time? If not, why not? Is there a danger of high bad debt?

[rainmaker] 31/10/2013 01:48

Thanks Glen for you post about Mallett which deserves a reply.With regard to your two questions-

"If the franchise is so strong, with relatively weak competitors, where are the profits?'

Well as I'm sure you're already aware,we're dealing with a strongly cyclical industry-in the second half of 2008, in the wake of the credit crunch, Mallett's turnover plunged an incredible 43% so trading conditions over the last 5 years have been far from typical.However there clear signs that their business has rebounded strongly-ie Mallett's returns at Masterpiece last year were best returns at any fair this side of the millennium(and they exhibit at all the top fairs internationally including the 240 stand TEFAT fair at Maastricht-from memory, Masterpiece had some 150+ stands this year)and their turnover in New York doubled in the first six months of the year so we're waiting for an expected pickup in a moribund London where their costs have been more than halved, saving over £600k pa with a move last year to cheaper premise in nearby Dover Street.A trading update is expected in December.



and 'Will the management team realise that they run a small low (no) profit company and their duty is to serve shareholders rather than fill their bellies?'.

IMHO as I've said before, there definitely seems to be an air of complacency in the running of the business,corporate "largesse" and a general lack of focus on the priority of enhancing shareholder value.When they originally announced their intention to reassign their lease they spoke of moving to a smaller premise in a lower rent street in Mayfair but lo and behold, they move from a 9k sq ft Office to one of 14k-50% larger. They sell the New Bond Street lease for £1.7mln and spend all bar £400k of that money on moving and refurbishing their new showroom.The Buffett phrase "owner like care" springs to mind and I note that the Directors holdings are miniscule in comparison to their renumeration.

Obviously this has to change and I note that at last year's AGM there was a 40% vote against the Directors renumeration report perhaps a warning shot across their bows and I sense that the directors attitude is changing ie in enhancing shareholder value by subletting the ground floor of their Madison Avenue showroom and creating extra value in the sale of their Clapham High Street Property by firstly gaining planning permission for change of use and the building of 7 luxury flats which added some £650k to the eventual sale proceeds.

I'm definitely sticking with my holdings which are all in profit but it's frustrating situation but I'm very tenacious.As an out and out Value Investor in these types of situations, the only scenarios that would make me liquidate my holdings would be an absence of a margin of safety or a personal conviction that Mallett is a "Value Trap" where value is continually being destroyed with no possibility of a reprieve. IMHO we have an acceptable MOS in Mallett, a profitable business,with the proceeds of the CHS property are on offer for 50p in the £ and the value of their 23.5% stake in Masterpiece is free(conventionally valued at 15 times earnings , their stake is worth £1mln but for a whole variety of reasons, I believe it's worth a great deal more)

Interesting times ahead, I believe.It will be fascinating to discover how this one pans out.

regards

[rainmaker] 29/10/2013 21:31

IMHO looks very much like "Mr Market" not just sleeping but comatose in respect of ventilation system and window and door fittings manufacturer, Titon Holdings(TON) which has recently slide back to 40p bid, 43p offered after a move to circa 46p. Last time I looked net working capital was some 48p a share with another 31p of tangible fixed assets thrown in for nothing then of course, the Company owns valuable patents on it's MVHR ventilation products(see recent victory in patent infringement case v much larger rival Nuaire).Co has net cash of £1.7mln v current market cap of £4.4mln. July trading statement, posted below, confirms a continuation of profitable first half trading in their third quarter. There were subsequently great figures for housing starts from Office for National Statistics in September which is excellent news for the Company since it is their key indicator, as ventilation systems are fitted into modern air tight building during construction.

There is also further positive newsflow with a large jump in social housing new build registrations-see post 5468.The Company supplies window and door fittings to Local Authorities and has consistently complained of difficult trading conditions and a reduced levels of affordable housing(for affordable read social) see trading statement below.

Company reports their finals in December for the year ending 30 September 2013 and I confidently expect positive news from the Company of improved trading and a much better outlook with a large hike in the corresponding years dividend of 0.5p. Share price wise I expect a 50% rise to 60p+ in the next few months and a move to 100p next year as the recovery in Titon's markets gathers steam.Remember that housing starts are some 28% below the 22 year average and some 48% below the cyclical peak in 2006 so IMHO there's plenty of upside as trading returns to more normal conditions.

DYOR as I have done mine and AIMHO

regards











TIDMTON

RNS Number : 1775K

Titon Holdings PLC

25 July 2013

Titon Holdings Plc (the "Company" or the "Group")

Interim Management Statement

Titon, the UK based ventilation and hardware manufacturer, today releases its Interim Management Statement in respect of the period 1 April 2013 to 30 June 2013, as required by the UK Listing Authority's Disclosure and Transparency rules.

Group turnover for the 3 month period is 17% higher than in the corresponding period last year due largely to strong performance from our South Korean subsidiary where sales volumes have more than doubled.

By contrast, market conditions within our key UK markets remain difficult with reduced levels of affordable housing programmes and with a lack of consumer confidence impacting upon domestic window and door replacement. UK sales for the period were unchanged on the corresponding period of 2012.

The reductions in our cost base that were made last year helped us to return the Group to profit in the first half year and we are pleased that this trend has continued in the third Quarter.

Cash balances at the end of June 2013 were GBP1.7 million (June 2012: GBP1.7 million).

25 July 2013

This information is provided by RNS

The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

END

IMSBXGDRXUDBGXU

[profdoc] 15/10/2013 09:13

Thank you, Rainman. You make an intriguing case. I think I'll look again at the company. I'm tied up for the next month, but I'll write up some thoughts after that. It might, at least, be one for the watch list. But, over time I will be trying to address the questions of 'If the franchise is so strong, with relatively weak competitors, where are the profits?' and 'Will the management team realise that they run a small low (no) profit company and their duty is to serve sharehiolders rather than fill their bellies?'. If these two start to come good, all well and good.

[rainmaker] 11/10/2013 02:02

Hi Glen-I keep meaning to add a comment to your post.There's certainly a great deal to analyse in Mallett-the underlying business, trading history, competitors and markets, so you and your students will have been busy.There's a great deal to think about.

I don't think there's any doubt that the Directors have their priorities, to put it delicately.I both understand and respect your decision not to invest. Sometime ago, I had the opportunity to buy shares in Jeweller,Theo Fennell(TFL) but declined before I even started my "in depth" investigation because I didn't like the Directors resetting their share options-they reduced the excise price. Of course, that's all perfectly legal but I didn't approve so I won't invest at any price.

There's a couple of Warren Buffett quotes that spring to mind for Mallett.The first is a corruption of the "not all earnings are created equal" quote and secondly his advice about picking a business. In the first quote, the word "earnings" are interchangeable with the word "businesses"IMHO Mallett's BOD are guilty of complacency but no more.Mallett dominant position as reputedly the worlds largest antiques dealer unquestionably have strong competitive advantages at the very top end of market. This hand has been strengthened even further in recent years with the demise two major competitors in 2009-Partridge Fine Arts, their largest direct competitor located just next door but one and John Hobbs, surely their biggest competitor in Mallett's forte of English and Continental seventeenth and eighteenth century period furniture. This loss of competition at the very top of the market has important ramifications for Mallett's business, as it means not just greater market share but also bigger profit margins through the greater bargaining power in both the buying and selling of exceptional pieces,they obtain through reduced competition. Structural changes in their industry will only increase Mallett's dominance, as the strongest get even stronger and the weak go to the wall.In recent decades there has been a substantial reduction in fresh stock coming to market through the drying up of supply, as prohibitively expensive to run,Country estates and Homes have largely been sold off along with their contents. Obviously there're isn't going to more antiques being created so supply has dwindled and the natural consequence of this is higher prices. There's also terrific business to done in China now the worlds largest global market for arts and antiques where Mallett have been focussing their marketing drive in recent years so I expect to see excellent business from this region.Mallett reduced their overheads by some £1.2mln in 2011 and last year more than halved their showroom costs in London, saving £600k pa, by relocating to their current address at Ely House,Dover Street(for anyone interested in visiting, the nearest tube is Green Park, just a short walk away), The Company now trades profitably, having made £200k in the first half of the current year.

Leaving aside the attributes of the Masterpiece exhibition that make it a terrific business-business franchise, toll gate business,negative conversion cycle, high scalability, risk aversion etc etc etc perhaps the best thing Investors could do is to obtain a copy of their latest accounts which are available, for a small fee, on line and then do some very simple calculations, as follows-


Last year there were approximately 28,000 visitors paying £20 a ticket so that's £560,000.If you subtract that from the turnover, I think around £7.5mln and divide by the number of stands-160, if I remember correctly, so then you can calculate, conservatively ignoring any sqm price increases, the average revenue per stand and then various profit figures assuming higher stand sales of 170, 180 etc etc(and no increase in admission numbers which this year were 20% up at 34,000) and determine the large effect on profitability. In 2012, there was a widely quoted figure in various respected journals indirectly quoting the Chairman that there had been 300 "applications" for stands. The worlds largest arts and antiques exhibition is TEFAT held in Maastricht each year, has some 240 stands or more despite an unpopular sales tax and poor infrastructure. IMHO mouthwatering.

AIMHO, DYOR

regards

[rainmaker] 19/9/2013 15:20

he certainly does..............and the hob nailed variety!

[spob] 19/9/2013 15:18

Re Mallett - Peter Gyllenhammer needs to put the boot in, where the sun dosen't shine.

[profdoc] 19/9/2013 11:39

Thanks, Rainmaker. In the Spring I analysed Mallett together with some of the Graduate intake at Schroders. We concluded that bargepoles are required. The directors seem to have a sense of entitlement (perhaps they spend too long in Mayfair). A loss-making company has directors who keep making promises, while they suck out between half and three-quarters of a million each year. Nice work if you can get it I suppose. So regardless of the merits of Masterpiece I cannot go near it - 'you cannot make a good deal with a bad person'WB. or 'like, trust, admire'WB

[rainmaker] 18/9/2013 19:40

Looks very interesting Bingowing and also very cheap still

regards

[bingowing] 18/9/2013 12:49

looking interesting here

[rainmaker] 18/9/2013 10:22

Sure Glen, just to clarify listed Art and Antiques Dealer,Mallett(MAE) own 23.75% of the annual Masterpiece Art, Antiques and Design exhibition-



and here's a link to the Mallett(MAE) thread where I've posted a whole load of research-




regards

[profdoc] 18/9/2013 09:55

Hi Rainmaker, I looked for Masterpiece, but could not find it on ADVFN. Could you point me in the right direction please

Glen

[sleepy] 17/9/2013 20:27

Think I sold out at 140 about 10 years ago

[profdoc] 17/9/2013 16:05

An interesting thought: if the dividend returns to 7.1p per share the income flow on the current share price would be very nice. (For the market watchers: if the dividend yield remains at 5%, the share is 142p)

[rainmaker] 17/9/2013 13:15

Thanks Glen-it's funny you should say that because for many years until the top of the economic cycle in 2006, the Company paid a dividend in excess of 7p a share yet the operating efficiency since has improved significantly with their first foreign lower cost manufacturing base in South Korea opened in 2008 and a large reduction of staff in the UK, the last time I checked they had been reduced by something like a third from some 120 to 80. Even the first six months of their financial year they had reduced their cost base by £226k. I'm surprised that the share price hasn't risen further and that we're still trading at less than the 49p minimum liquidation value of their assets when large increases in housing starts clearly demonstrates that the recovery in their markets is well under way so we can expect Titon Holdings to be valued as a profitable business with a bright future rather than a collection of assets which means a sharply higher share price.

I know Northamber(NAR) very well and I'll try to contribute to the thread when I have the time.

regards

[profdoc] 17/9/2013 12:30

Hi, Wad, thanks for the encouragement, but I, as an investor, rather than a speculator would rather that the share price remains low. If you expect to be a consumer/accumulator of burgers or flows of future income, do you want the burgers or the flows to come at an increased price or would you prefer a lower price?

[profdoc] 17/9/2013 12:09

Rainmaker, Thank you. Very informative, as usual

[rainmaker] 16/9/2013 13:36

Glen, I believe that James Montier has his own thread on ADVFN.

regards

[rainmaker] 16/9/2013 13:31

Thanks Glen, I think the great thing about Value Investing with regard to Graham and Buffett, is you can marry the strengths of each and they perfectly complement one another-Graham's quantative analysis and Buffett's qualitive analysis-you don't have to compromise on either.Then you add further value by analysing the underlying business, it's trading history, it's markets and competitors.There's also a whole array of fundamental tools and concepts of which the market is blissfully unaware. No two businesses are the same and take for example, Masterpiece in which Mallett(MAE) hold 23.75% stake there's a whole host of fundamental factors involved in this business-high operational leverage, negative conversion, absence of bad debt risk, scalability then there are the concepts that all Investors should be familiar with, but aren't-business franchises,toll gate businesses etc

I think you're absolutely right about the phrase "value trap", in an investment community overwhelmingly populated by short term superficial speculators, it's a very convenient coat hanger for long term under performance in a share price. Investors generally don't bother with properly researching a Company's fundamentals,competitors and markets but instead, are obsessed with short term price moves rather than studying the underlying business-they're all watching the share price but not the performance of the actual Company.Aside from the actual knowledge required to be a very successful Investors there are the all important prerequisite personal qualities such as intelligence,integrity, patience, discipline and there is the Value Investing "gene" that Self Klarman speaks of which definitely exists.

I don't have time to comment on your list but I like French Connection (FCCN) for a variety of reasons.

With regard to Titon Holdings (TON) IMHO the party's definitely only just started and there's loads more upside from current levels of 41/43.IMHO Titon with major improvements to their business in recent years,will definitely make returns in excess of it's cost of capital on it's tangible net asset value of nearly twice the current share price so next stop at least +80p

DYOR, IMHO

regards

[wad collector] 16/9/2013 11:46

Gosh , keep talking you two - you are talking the price up today to a new yr high !

[profdoc] 16/9/2013 11:42

Thanks, Rainmaker. I'm always aware of Warren's phrase of 'cigar butt investments' when the NCAV is high relative to M Cap. But, as you say, if you concentrate on the business fundamentals then you can develop a clear rationale for a recovery. (And besides, we showed in an academic paper that even a crude, quantitative-only, NCAV approach worked in the UK in recent times. Warren and Charlie's approach is very good and should be followed if you have the time to do real business analysis in great depth and you can be extraordinarily patient in waiting for high quality franchises to sell at 'a fair price'. But Graham's approach is also good, especially if you layer on a good quality business stratgic analysis, managerial analysis and stability analysis. In this case, the managament have shown themselves to be capable in the worst possible economic environment, and the pick up in the housing market will be very beneficial. The icing on the cake will be if the heat recovery business turns out to have some pricing power, which will require barriers to industry entry.
I think people often jump to the phrase 'value trap' when they focus on being a 'speculator' as in Graham's definition, as someone who focuses on market price movements and is then frustrated by business realities not permitting the share price to move within the desired time frame.
I would value your views on these companies: French Connection, Northamber, Fletcher King (particularly unused cash), Caledonian Trust (observe planning permissions and historic BS valuations) and Creightons.
I too would recommend James' books, particularly Behavioural Investing. It is a pity he has moved over to hedge fund management (the dark side!) and so produces little writing these days.

[rainmaker] 14/9/2013 02:37

Thanks Glen, I prepared a nice long reply then promptly managed to lose it, such is my prowess in the IT department. Many Thanks for your kind words and your interesting message.True Stock Market Value Investing is very lonely business with very, very few genuine practioners but plenty of pretenders. Given it's strong green credentials, there's no doubt in my mind that MVHR will do very well given a return to more normal trading conditions-see last paragraph.

I think once upon a time,pre MVHR, Titon was a Company involved in a "commodity type" industry, with very little pricing power, where margins were being gradually eroded by rising costs and the Company's inability to pass on those rises. So I suppose it was a "Value Trap". The Company then set about reversing this long term decline, by opening their first ever foreign base and making deep cuts to staff numbers and then at the same time along comes a recession for the next 5/6 years.

I have to say that in long experience of stock market Value Investing, "Value Traps" are incredibly rare and I can honestly say I've personally never encountered one, first hand. It's a bit like the fraud risk in Chinese Companies, where the perception in Investors minds far exceeeds the reality. I take plenty of common sense precautions to avoid such situations eg no matter how cheaply valued, I won't invest in a Company unless it is an established and proven business which obviously rules out cash rich bio techs start ups with high cash burn. The only recent "value trap" I can remember is a Textile Company called Dawson which went into liquidation but how much of that was due to the damning economics of the underlying business and how much was due to the pension fund deficient, I cannot be sure. Warren Buffett's purchase of Textile Company, Berkshire Hathaway is surely the classic example of a "Value Trap" shortly after he exited this business, he kicked what he called the "asset habit" and instead looked to reliable and highly predictable growth in earnings in a Company to provide his "margin of safety" rather than assets.

I've read a great deal and James Montier has very interesting things to say on so called behavioural analysis which does great job in explaining why Investor make the mistakes they do. His work is highly recommended.

Back to Titon Holdings, as already mentioned in my previous post,we already know that housing starts are THE key indicator for the Company's two businesses(they've said as much)-window and doors fittings which Local Authorities are major Customer AND ventilation systems AND that housing starts are some 48% below their peak in 2006 and some 28% below their 22 year average.

Well today there were statistics released from the Office for National Statistics for housing starts which quite simply, were fantastic.There were big rises in orders for both public and private new housing for the second quarter which rose 19.4%, the largest rise since autumn 2010 and in volume terms of £4bln in orders, the highest since the fourth quarter 2007.This comes on the back of better than expected figures for July and figures for August which showed the fastest pace of growth for nearly 6 years.Overall year on year construction orders were up 32.8%.Predicting the timing of a share price rise of a Value share is notoriously difficult, nevertheless given the evidence of a strong recovery in housing starts,I confidently expect Titon's share price to do very well in the next 4 months but we shall see.

AIMHO, DYOR

regards

[profdoc] 10/9/2013 12:03

Thank you, Rainmaker, for helping to fill some of the gaps in my understanding of the firm. I took a pessimistic line on the potential of the MVHR so as to build in a large margin of safety into the valuation vs share price. If you are right about its potential and Titon's potential for some pricing power, which I strongly suspect you are, then this company is truly a bargain. Having got this far through the downturn they have demonstrated strong underpinning on the valuation. Many people who have held Titon for 5-10 years are very disheartened and call it a 'value trap'. Indeed, I've started to notice a pattern: many NCAV shares have long term holders or giver-upers who describe the shares as value traps. I wonder if this is the representativeness hueristic? That is, people caricature a company as forever doomed to be a value trap because this is how it has behaved in the past. At some point many (or at least enough) of these companies will break out from that pattern simply because the underlying fundamentals concerning the business get turned around through economic change in the industry, managerial prowess, takeover or liquidation. In this case the industry economics were not all that brilliant in the early noughties, but profits were OK. Then a 5 year recession. No wonder they are classified by some as a value trap (share price decline for 12 years). But if there are good reasons for thinking that they can spring themselves from the trap - and you have provided many reasons why that might be possible - then they are a buy, if the share price has fallen so low. I have bought some anyway, and I'm looking forward to the ride out of the recession. Keep posting, Rainmaker: I have valued your comments of other deep value shares. Thank you.