Time Finance Share Discussion Threads

[someuwin] 30/1/2023 13:35

40p first target

[someuwin] 30/1/2023 09:12

Can buy £7k, but not £8k.

[z1co] 30/1/2023 08:07

Conclusion from the private punter:

For now though, the picture looks to me positive in the near and medium term with organic growth on profit and earnings, where the discount looks unwarranted and is surely due a sharp rerating.


Broker Cenkos has full year 2023 revenue pencilled in at £25.7m with pre-tax profits at £3.2m and EPS of 2.9p. Given that the company has stated that the profit before tax will be not less than £3.2m, it is quite possible that given such a strong first half, that figure will be exceeded, which would further highlight the value proposition.


Looking ahead to next year the forecast from Cenkos is for revenue of £29m and profit before tax of £4.6m as EPS is expected to jump to 3.9p. On that basis, the shares at the mid-price of 22.5p trade on a forward PER of 5.7, which look far too cheap to this writer, hence I have an interest having bought into the story.

[someuwin] 27/1/2023 16:13

Good write-up cheers.

[gswredland] 27/1/2023 16:09

Thank you for sharing guys

[owenski] 27/1/2023 15:05

Thanks hastings

Clickable link -

[hastings] 27/1/2023 14:52

Write up that may be of interest.https://martinflitton1.wixsite.com/privatepunter/post/time-finance-beginning-to-tick-27-01-23

[z1co] 27/1/2023 10:56

davidosh

I did NOT and will NOT discourage other posters posting here.

And it's not if we get to £4.6m PTB next year,we definitely will and more.

After the trading update in June and the finals in September this figure of £4.6 PBT will no doubt be upgraded again.

The business must have grown significantly from December.

This quote from their trading update on 10/12/2022:

Ongoing positive trading momentum resulting in expectation of Group trading for the full year to be at least in line with market expectations.

This from their Interim Results yesterday:

Continued positive trading momentum throughout December 2022 gives the Board confidence that full year trading will be significantly ahead of market expectations.

[davidosh] 27/1/2023 10:08

I do not disagree and I have been here forever too. I just did not want you to discourage posters if they are being reasonable in providing information.

If we get to £4.6m pbt next year and at that rate of growth in earnings then the share price will get to double where we are now and possibly by the end of this year in anticipation....with positive updates of course.

[z1co] 27/1/2023 07:39

davidosh

I have also followed this company and bought shares when it was 1PM before and
after consolidation.

Results have become H1 biased..

You will also see for the year ending 31/05/2024 the company is forecasting to make a PBT of £4.6m that this will also be H1 biased.

It does not matter if they make more profits in H1 or H2 or if the profits are 50/50,the bottom line their PBT for this year will INCREASE by more than 130% to at least £3.2m being " significantly ahead of expectations " and for next year it's forecast to increase again to £4.6m and these forecasts could prove very conservative.

The shares will rerate over the coming weeks and months.

[davidosh] 27/1/2023 00:58

Z1CO.....that is very unfair on phar lap and he never said you were telling 'porkies' at all.

They have posted useful information.....maybe we need to go back a few more years to see the H1/H2 split to get a better picture.

I am seeking to speak to the company so will get their answer too.

[z1co] 26/1/2023 23:09

phar lap

You been been member since 2003 with 236 posts and following just 1 other poster namely daviddosh.

Hmmm something is not right about you.

This is your only post on this company or 1PM before the name change.You have never posted anything about this company before and your telling me that i'm posting lies on the forum.

More likely it's you who is posting lies.


The company is strongly H1 biased.It was the case last year and it will be the same again this year so that's 2 consecutive years.2020 and 2021 were impacted by Covid.

Full year PBT ia already forecast to be more than 130% higher than last year at £3.2m and this will no doubt be upgraded again after the June trading update.

For next year they are forecasting PBT of £4.6m and an EPS of 3.9.These are likely to be significantly upgraded again after the finals in September.

These shares are very CHEAP and they will rerate aggressively in the coming weeks and months.

[phar lap] 26/1/2023 22:18

Z1CO

The split between revenue and profits in previous years for H1 and H2 are usually pretty similar.
The exception being FY 2022.
Revenue and gross profit between H1 and H2 were about the same but we had exceptional costs for the FY of £1.9M (mostly made up of goodwill write off £978K and redundancy costs of £720K)


daviddosh

Cenkos forecasts for H2 2023

Revenue £12.5M (H1 £13.2M)
PBT £1.9M (H1 £1.97M)

FY 2023 PBT forecast to be £3.2M because of exceptional items of £0.5M and share based payments of £0.2M.

FY 24 forecast
Revenue £29M
PBT £4.6M (after exceptional items of £0.2M and share based payments of £0.2M)
Adjusted EPS 4.1p

[z1co] 26/1/2023 19:14

With 5 months to go before their year end they are saying that full year trading will be significantly ahead of market expectations with PBT for the full year now expected to be not less than GBP3.2m.

That £3.2m PBT is already more than 130% up on last year.

The next trading update in June will most definitely will also be ahead of expectations.These shares will rerate a lot higher over the coming weeks and months.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


Off topic

Take a look at YU. although completely different business's in November they issued a significantly ahead TU and this week they issued another ahead of expectations TU.The share price is UP by over 100% from November to this week from £3.50 to over £7.00.

[z1co] 26/1/2023 18:55

davidosh

They company historically produces significantly more profits in H1 than H2.

Last year ending 31/05/2022:

H1 PBT was £1.201 million
H2 PBT was just £207,000

PBT for the 12 months being £1.408m

They are strongly H1 biased that's all and nothing to worry about.

Coming back to today's results:

Profit before Tax for H1 is up 67% to GBP2.0m

And profit for H2 will be a minimum of £1.2m but it could well be a lot more than that.

For this year they will increase H2 PBT from £0.2m to at least £1.2m

Hope it helps you to understand and the same goes to "daz" who was also a little bit concerned this afternoon.

[someuwin] 26/1/2023 16:23

Bought a few more on the dip.

[chubb24] 26/1/2023 16:09

Sorry being lazy asking this but these guys have much debt?

[gswredland] 26/1/2023 15:28

That's extremely optimistic Z1CO especially in this market!Hope you are correct though
Good luck to all holders

[z1co] 26/1/2023 14:23

We will find out a bit more in June.

The tone of today's TU is definitely very bullish and it gives the confidence to BUY.

Shares could easily double by June.

[daz] 26/1/2023 14:06

Yes, I'd agree that they are being conservative and the full year will be upgraded but nonetheless the current forecast of £3,2m, implies H2 profits of £1.2m and even if they did £1.3 - £1.4m in H2, that would be a slowdown on the £2m in H1, so if that run rate continued into next year, you would say be looking at 1.4m * 2 = £2.8m and even adding say 10% for an increase in lending, that would only take you to £3.1m for 2024, which would be down on 2023

From what I got from the presentation, I think they will struggle against the headwind from increasing arrears and I think there is a limit to how much growth they can fund internally.

[z1co] 26/1/2023 13:49

Daz

The company also said that continued positive trading momentum throughout December 2022 gives the Board confidence that full year trading will be significantly ahead of market expectations with PBT for the full year now expected to be not less than GBP3.2m.

This will no doubt be upgraded again after the full year Trading Update in June.

[daz] 26/1/2023 13:44

I'm not a holder for reference but listened to the IMC presentation, which has just ended but had a few observations/questions, which maybe the longer term holders could comment on.

I couldn't really get a feel for inflation adjusted results, so how much of the 12% revenue or the gross lending book increase is down to genuine growth or just the result of inflation. Where I'm coming from is that if you said that inflation accounted for half of the 12% revenue increase, then the organic growth doesn't look that impressive.

I'm a little cautious as to how the company will perform in the coming months, it was made quite clear in the presentation that they were expecting an increase in arrears, which would reduce margins and it looks like the half year probably coincided with the low point in arrears, so perhaps something which ought to have been put more into context.

[cheshire man] 26/1/2023 12:22

Certainly a very comfortable hold for me now :-)

[gswredland] 26/1/2023 10:10

Thanks Hastings

[someuwin] 26/1/2023 10:03

The upside is clear to see