Tiger Royalties And Inve... Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 17/5/2008 17:17

Yes, I was thinking the same thing. We will have to wait and see. I've always said that Tiger is a nice shell for a bigger deal, but we will have to see.

[stemis] 17/5/2008 16:56

Something seems to have triggered a surge in the price. Any ideas? Its certainly not their holding in Ascent.

[maxbubble] 29/4/2008 10:18

witteklip...who knows but with a buy back running in the background and also there appears to be a new buyer building a stake then we could move up 30% quite quickly imv.

[witteklip] 29/4/2008 09:40

Max - If that recent move up is on volume then technical side has just improved. ;-)

[maxbubble] 26/4/2008 07:53

i agree and think its a strong possibility - but there are so many factors to take into account now in the global picture that I feel and we are already seeing signs of it already and they will be pumping up inflation for years to come but it could fail and probably should fail but to date that is the way the world has worked and i think it will likely continue thanks to China and India.

[witteklip] 26/4/2008 03:33

I agree with quick the bounce back into the 900s then I suspect $800 gold will be tested - and that will wake people up to the existence of deflationary forces.

I have an unpopular contrarian view on what is going on...

I think that the real threat we're facing and the CBs are currently fighting is deflation - given that money and debt are Siamese twins and given the extent of debt built on the back of unrealistic values (induced by that debt) I would not be surprised to see deflation gaining the upper hand regardless of how energetically Bernanke and friends hurl money from helicopters.

Imagine what the picture would be if oil supply wasn't held hostage to US control and the perception of the oil shortages wasn't in place - Oil would be trading back at 10 dollars. And imagine if the bond market was left to determine realistic risk - we'd have interest rates in double digits to match the real rate of inflation and tightened belts all around. The artificially induced tax bonanza governments are squeezing out of the markets via oil is partly providing the New Deal type liquidity we're experiencing - The ailing bubbles are being supported by government spending on wars and public projects just like FDR - Without this who would take on debt, invest or take on speculative expenditure given the risks? Liquidity would dry up and collapsing prices and debts would start a deflationary spiral that no amount of zeros added to the 'money' supply could disguise.

What is hiding the reality in plain view is that 'money' is no longer what it was - its a new global creature that's virtually 100% Fiat paper and ink and its devaluation is disguised by absurd inflation indexes that claim low single digits when they are in reality into in double digits along with money supply which is likely to be approaching 20% p.a.

Inflating money at say 10% p.a. with static growth would, in real terms, result in an asset, that kept its current price level, being worth 81% of today's value in just 24 months. To me that's deflation by stealth and it's been happening disguised for years. In real terms the major stock indexes are around levels seen at the turn of this Century. If it wasn't for the media and our wishful hopes more people would have seen that the King is stark naked.

What I see is pretty much what's been happening in Japan since 1989 - The world's second most powerful economy has been in deflation with banks, at one point, paying people interest to take out loans. Of course they've dressed it up but the worrying thing is to think how Japan's deflationary experience would have looked without the inflationary 'boom' in the West and the sophisticated financial Zimmer frames presented by the Central Banks to prop it all up. Who is going to prop up our economy when the ball of debt starts rolling back down the hill?

As far as I can tell there's a lot of smoke being blown in our eyes right now -this is the trick were the magician has sawn the lady in half and pretends its all gone wrong - except we 'know' he's 'pretending'. Trouble is that this time it happened for real and the magician is trying to smooth it over and get another lady to appear from the gloom. More smoke ain't doing it. More debt doesn't remedy a debt induced bubble and debt build on a shakey premise always collapses

[maxbubble] 25/4/2008 20:43

governments will only want to inflate so my view is they will be throwing everthing at it - looks like stagflation at moment but the market is already viewing the credit crunch as largely over for the short term so my view is that gold will be choppy for a while - not sure what 65 day moving average is but i would think testing support for a while around $775 mark and maybe a sharp bounce up again. A lot are believing the beaten up junior explorers are junk to so a bounce is on the cards sooner rather than later imv.

[witteklip] 24/4/2008 16:57

maxbubble - 24 Apr'08 - 08:27 - 1128 - Yes but technically the chart looks vulnerable. People who have to sell will sell regardless of the fundamentals. Anyone who invests in TIR needs a patient long term outlook and be prepared to see the share price fall lower.

Many long term holders must be kicking themselves they didn't lighten up on the spike up and wait to reload. Trouble is its hard to sell an undervalued company at any time and always seems like a bargain.

[maxbubble] 24/4/2008 08:27

been buying some more at bargain prices - shrewd management with lots of cash available to buy up some shares at bargain prices. Surely with so much cash on the balance sheet they should be at a premium in todays market??

[crazy russian] 18/4/2008 14:43

I am sure that recent weakness (poor performance IOW) has been due to a steady selling by shareholders in advance of the change in CGT rules
indeed I bet most of us expected such a stupid rule to be withdrawn prior to 5-4 hence we didnt sell at 4p odd
it wasnt
and I wish I had!

however I still reckon its a good stock and core holding is EIS so bottom drawer it is then.

[witteklip] 17/4/2008 21:09

curt3 - 11 Apr'08 - 10:46 - 1125 - I agree with your sentiment.


On 01/04/2008 @ 10:32 The traded price of TIR was 2.85/ 2.95

01/04/2008 @ 12:14 "The unaudited portfolio value (PV) (based on investments and cash only) at 31 March 2008 was 4.78p per ordinary share.

All future reporting will be made on a quarterly basis and accordingly the next
announcement will disclose the portfolio value per share as at 30 June 2008."

On that day (1/04) I calculate that TIR traded at 39.33% below its portfolio value. If I accept that 20% of the value is given as an offering to the Gods of bureaucracy then I am still wondering why this share was trading at 19.33% below fair value.

Aside from the lack of promotion of the company and its apparent contempt for their investors goodwill, can anyone suggest why a solvent company with great potential and a manager with a sound reputation is trading at a silly discount?

In these days when paper money is being systematically devalued the world over I would have thought that solid companies focused on commodities would be selling for a premium.

So, why the discount?

Isn't it time that B.R. at least made an effort to regularly update the web site?

Are these guys deliberately keeping a low profile and just waiting for the price to drift lower so that they can grab more treasury shares at discount to value? Or increase insider holdings?

If we knew management's was biding their time waiting to accumulate value at a discount (on behalf of shareholders) then there's no real problem in seeing the share price drift lower - Unless you need to sell.

What's up? I am starting to want a fair interest paid on my investment.

[curt3] 11/4/2008 10:46

management fees around £ 1/2M for WHAT!!!! Cant even spend a few days to update website. Can only conclude they're in it for themselves alone and not remotely interested in little shareholders.

[curt3] 08/4/2008 11:49

Its pathetic really. Management is so lethargic it cant even update the TIR website !! Comments on portfolio companies are several years old and not updated and last NAV annoucement is not even there !!! Says it all dont you think. We can all go back to sleep and keep hoping for a miracle.

[witteklip] 08/4/2008 00:39

SKYSHIP - 3 Apr'08 - 08:40 - 1121 The only way I can see TIR seriously faltering is with an upward run on the dollar (if that happens it will be temporary) - Or, if the entire global market tanks - in which case I guess B.R. will get to use cash for value building. Although it's not comforting to see the price weaken the underlying value appears rock solid.

[skyship] 03/4/2008 08:40

Bizarre run of titchy buys this morning - perhaps RHPS has tipped them! Slightly better on the bid - now 2.7p-2.9p.

[witteklip] 04/3/2008 18:35

Recent buyers are more likely than most to cash in the quick profit and run - I would not be surprised to see the chart test the recent low before TIR returns to reasonable value.

[skyship] 04/3/2008 10:10

Ascent moving better at last - on the leaderboard today - currently UP 16.7%.

With every 1p on AST adding 0.143p to the TIR NAV, GLC etc may well have timed their entry spot on - let's hope that proves to be the case.

[skyship] 28/2/2008 17:21

GLC Ltd No.1 FURBS - what the hell is that? Ken Livingstone's sinking fund for refurbishing his offices perhaps? Whatever.....they certainly seem rather unsure as to their exact holding - 5.45m, 5.5m or 5.55m - a good start to heaven knows what.

Hopefully they'll keep accumulating - then sell a handy block back to the company as a buyback, in much the same way Strongbow did last year!

[skyship] 24/2/2008 17:39

Glynne - so I did.....

[glynnef] 23/2/2008 17:16

Skyship,

you did successfully post it - on the MERE thread. Must have been a great lunch !

G.

[skyship] 23/2/2008 10:26

===================================================================
Actually posted this yesterday evening; but I see it didn't appear!
===================================================================

Hi Glynne et al......hic!..... Sorry, we had a bit of a wine-tasting lunch.

Anyway, everything cleared away & head done likewise after a bit of rose pruning - needs concentration after a good lunch!

Return to see TIR closed at 2.85p-3.00p - half expected to see 2.90p bid after that last BUY - though they may have been online. Was it you taking in a few Tilts?

Anyway - MERE - for that is indeed the one to which I was referring.

As I've mentioned elsewhere, a Euroland property company standing at a NAV discount of 25% (485p v. 650p) isn't too remarkable perhaps, but the 40.5p dividend giving a yield of 8.35% certainly is by comparison to its peers. That dividend was reaffirmed in January. There is certainly no need to cut that dividend; the high yield is purely the outcome of an oversold share price. At the 578p level at which the directors topped up their holdings in Oct'07, the yield was 7.0%.

Personally, now that my SIPP holds 25% Cash thanks to the GLA liquidation many of us played, I have been looking for just this sort of investment - a high yielding, asset-backed holding. For me MERE ticks all the boxes due to the yield, the NAV & the transparency - as per this Oct'07 Presentation:



The statement from Wichford (WICH) just this week confirms that the MERE property portfolio will not have been through the valuation turmoil associated with the UK-invested property companies. Euroland commercial property write-downs have not proved necessary as the ludicrous down spike in yields was not replicated in Europe. It was the excess buying by the UK pension funds (and to a lesser extent PIs) which took UK property valuations to such absurd levels.

That said, it would neither surprise nor worry me to see a reduction in the NAV from the current 651p to somewhere around the 600p level - which would represent a 19% NAV discount. However I would deem that a pessimistic estimate; and would suggest nearer 620p for a 22% NAV discount.

To my mind there is no threat to the dividend, so I am happy to accept the yield whilst waiting for better times.

FROM the MERE website:



Investment Objective and Policy
The Company's objectives are to provide shareholders with an attractive level of income return, together with the potential for income and capital growth, through investment in European Commercial Property. The Company will target, in the absence of unforeseen circumstances, a gross annualised dividend yield of 6 per cent, based on the Issue Price for the period from Admission to 30 June 2008. The Company does not intend this target to be a projection or forecast of dividends actually payable or actual profit or cash available for distribution.

[alanji] 22/2/2008 18:05

Not long at all. The wife and I managed to demolish a plateau de fruits de mer in under 3 hours in Etaples (near Le Touquet) on Wednesday - can recommend it - Aux Pecheurs d'Etaples, a local co-operative, they have their own boats and also have restaurants in Boulogne and Lille.

Back to Blighty tomorrow