Thorpe (f.w.) Share Discussion Threads

[wirralowl] 08/6/2005 13:33

Very quiet board but I've tucked a few of these away on the hope of a rise back up to £4 plus (fall seems overdone).

Noted their 2nd half seems stronger than their first due to costs being allocated unevenly. Nevertheless, H1 this year up 20% against previous year. Management looking to improve margins by reviewing efficiencies in production (which have worsened as output has increased). The interims also mentioned encouraging trading in the early months of H2. Pays a nice divi too.

Mark C - are you still around - out of interest where do you see TFW going. TIA.

[bench2] 29/3/2005 21:16

There is a tendency for small family controlled companies to load most of the non operating costs into the first half, exactly as Mark specifies. The first half is un-audited and the auditors are often not consulted ( to save money ).In a large company the FD would be oblidged by the auditors to expense and accrue costs evenly over the full twelve months. TFW looks good value again even on flat EPS of 32.5p which is being pessimistic. I put a toe back in the water today at 312p....with a view to buying more at 300p.Hope this is not the kiss of death!

[mark c graham] 29/3/2005 14:43

The H2 margin is consistently much better than the H1 margin. Turnover does not vary consistently between H1 and H2, so the difference must be down to fixed costs.

My guess is that certain costs (insurance, pension deficit contributions, for example) are paid in the first half of the year and charged to the P&L on a cash basis; H2 margins are then higher simply because the second half does not bear these costs.

What's your view, britishb?

[britishb] 29/3/2005 13:01

Anyone know a reason for the big swings in margins from half to half?

[mark c graham] 29/3/2005 10:08

Wish I'd waited!

[mark c graham] 23/3/2005 14:22

I'll comment on the results in more detail soon.

I'm a buyer again at 353p.

[padi] 23/3/2005 12:41

Anyone any ideas why the shareprice has fallen 70p in less than a week? The interim results were good and the fundamentals are rock solid...

[bench2] 17/3/2005 20:17

Better to travel than arrive? I can see nothing wrong in the interim numbers or outlook statement , apart from the £1.2m reduction in trade creditors since the year end which has eaten into the cash position. Purists will be disappointed in the modest growth in operating margin at 10.3% , and will question whether last year's 2nd half operating margin of 16.9% will be sustained on probable 2nd half'05 turnover of £22m. Over to you Mark.

[cwa1] 17/3/2005 09:53

Interims out...

[mark c graham] 23/2/2005 12:28

Thanks for the reminder - interim forecasts now added to header.

[bench2] 23/2/2005 12:07

Back to old highs in a nervous market is a good sign. Will you be posting your sales and profit forecasts for the interims to be announced on 17 March Mark?

[mark c graham] 18/2/2005 11:42

... or perhaps not.

[mark c graham] 17/2/2005 08:34

Tipped in "Shares" magazine this morning. Technical baloney, but might create a bit of buying interest ...

[mark c graham] 07/2/2005 06:41

Thanks, that's helpful.

[bench2] 06/2/2005 23:03

Mark,
If you went back 40 or 50 years a large number of public companies M&S , GUS, Sears, had a split voting structure to allow the founding family to retain control. So the Ords would have 10 times more votes than the A Ords. Normally the there would be say 10 million Ords in issue and 60 million A Ords.The A shares would be much more marketable and be owned by the large institutions, and the family and friends would own the Ords. The insurance companies and Pension Funds complained to the stock exchange to put pressure on companies to enfranchise the A's , which has happened.You can still find these sructures in the USA and Europe , but they are frowned upon. So it is extemely rare to find a company with this structure today. There are only about 5 companies left in the UK. New companies would not get a quote with this sort of structure. However you have rights, All A Ords rank pari passu with Ords for Dividends and in a wind up.But Dewhurst A Ords have no votes and you are not allowed to attend the company meetings , ask questions , or vote. But inferior voting power is reflected in a cheaper price , and A shares will nearly always trade at a discount to the ords, but as you get the same div you are buying on a higher yield and lower PER.Hope this helps.The Dewhurst family owns 51% of all the Ord shares.
Bench2

[mark c graham] 05/2/2005 18:40

bench2,

I've had a quick look at Dewhurst, and it does look interesting. Care to expand on the A/Ord structure? What are the differences between the two share types?

[bench2] 05/2/2005 15:38

Mark,
I have reduced my tfw holding in favour of dwht, not such good margins or such a broad customer spread , but pristine b/s and serious cash position.But last year's ptp may mark high water mark for the next two years but div covered 4.8x , so family management will grow div at 5-6%pa compound regardless.Sadly just been discovered by IC . Don't be put off by A/Ord structure , value will out in the end ....just look at Gibbs & Dandy and Patterson Zoch ( PZ ) A's were a very cheap way in and you got a big yield while you waited.I hope to attend the AGM on Monday so will update you next week.

[mark c graham] 29/1/2005 09:24

Cambium,

I'm afraid the 16/09/04 figures in the header are my current analysis of TWF. I'm only working off published figures and I'll rework my projections once the interims come out on 17 March.

I try to err on the conservative side in making these forecasts, so I would hope to see the company narrowly beat them. The main uncertainty is cash. I was too high at year-end because they have stepped up capital spending. Even if that trend is continuing, they still have more cash than they need and should be returning the excess to shareholders. I remain hopeful of some news in that regard.

Mark

[cambium] 28/1/2005 09:12

Just read your header again, I would be interested in your current analysis of Thorpe and what you think the future is likely to hold. Please.

[cambium] 28/1/2005 09:09

But the story has just begun, only joking well done Mark.

[mark c graham] 28/1/2005 09:03

I sold just over half my holding at prices over 400p, since it was getting very close to my target price and I was also way overweight in this stock, relative to my normal level of holding.

In for nothing on the remainder, and happy to hold.

[aderemi] 24/1/2005 13:49

still going....

[mark c graham] 20/1/2005 09:39

Off we go again! Up today on three buys totalling 3,500 shares. Marketmakers are shorter than ever - maximum buy size on line is 100 shares (maxiumum sell is 2,500 shares).

[mark c graham] 19/1/2005 13:33

Performance stats in header updated.

After a long period of consolidation, this has started moving again today on the back of three buys, totalling 6,500 shares. Marketmakers apparently remain short of stock, so any sustained buying interest could get it motoring again.

Unfortunately, no news flow is expected until the interims, which should appear around 18 March.

[langland] 17/12/2004 08:46

Something is up here surely? And I don't just mean the share price. Would the family sell out for a fiver? Answers on a postcard please to....