Thorpe (f.w.) Share Discussion Threads

[bench2] 02/9/2005 10:33

Final results will be announced on Tuesday 20 Sept

[bench2] 30/8/2005 12:25

On past form TFW should announce their final results on 15 Sept , the third Thursday of Sept ( Interims normally 3rd Thur of March ). Will you be updating your full year forecast Mark? Turnover on the strength of the interims should be over £40m. and EPS circa 40p. But the share price action will depend on the statement on future trading.Let's hope that energy and raw mat rises haven't eaten into margins.

[cambium] 12/7/2005 22:30

no reason why not penpont.

Good entry point now i think

[penpont] 12/7/2005 20:56

This looks one of the few good value, ISA'able small cap growth stocks still around.

Good quality, quiet thread too.

Does anyone have a view as to whether they will remain on the main market?

[bench2] 07/7/2005 20:23

The only quoted electrical contractor ( T Clarke ) got a big boost from the 2012 London Olympics. It will be interesting to see if TFW get any of the lighting contracts!

[wirralowl] 10/6/2005 08:11

Hi there CWA1. Becoming a crowd !

Chart looking very healthy now, in support of the fundamentals.

[cwa1] 09/6/2005 08:06

There are at least 3 of us FWIW :-)

[wirralowl] 08/6/2005 21:31

Thanks for the reply Mark, and good to hear I won't be on my own over the coming months! Your analysis always seems very accurate on TFW, so reassuring to hear you are still holding too.

Had these on my monitor for a good couple of years now. Thought I'd missed the boat, so pretty pleased to be given a second chance to enter at what I believe is a low rating. If I've got my maths right, an H2 with no improvement on last year, would still see an EPS of 35p+. On the other hand, if they manage to perform comparatively as well as they have in H1 with a 20% uplift on profit, then we could see almost 40p. A PE of 10-12 gives a target range of anywhere between £4-£4.80, dependent probably on the market sentiment at the time of the finals.

[mark c graham] 08/6/2005 20:47

WirralOwl,

Still here, still holding - I've just been a bit too busy with my real job to concentrate on TFW.

My target price is still over 400p. I think the wording of the last chairman's statement was rather careless and needlessly (I hope) spooked the market.

Mark

[wirralowl] 08/6/2005 12:33

Very quiet board but I've tucked a few of these away on the hope of a rise back up to £4 plus (fall seems overdone).

Noted their 2nd half seems stronger than their first due to costs being allocated unevenly. Nevertheless, H1 this year up 20% against previous year. Management looking to improve margins by reviewing efficiencies in production (which have worsened as output has increased). The interims also mentioned encouraging trading in the early months of H2. Pays a nice divi too.

Mark C - are you still around - out of interest where do you see TFW going. TIA.

[bench2] 29/3/2005 20:16

There is a tendency for small family controlled companies to load most of the non operating costs into the first half, exactly as Mark specifies. The first half is un-audited and the auditors are often not consulted ( to save money ).In a large company the FD would be oblidged by the auditors to expense and accrue costs evenly over the full twelve months. TFW looks good value again even on flat EPS of 32.5p which is being pessimistic. I put a toe back in the water today at 312p....with a view to buying more at 300p.Hope this is not the kiss of death!

[mark c graham] 29/3/2005 13:43

The H2 margin is consistently much better than the H1 margin. Turnover does not vary consistently between H1 and H2, so the difference must be down to fixed costs.

My guess is that certain costs (insurance, pension deficit contributions, for example) are paid in the first half of the year and charged to the P&L on a cash basis; H2 margins are then higher simply because the second half does not bear these costs.

What's your view, britishb?

[britishb] 29/3/2005 12:01

Anyone know a reason for the big swings in margins from half to half?

[mark c graham] 29/3/2005 09:08

Wish I'd waited!

[mark c graham] 23/3/2005 14:22

I'll comment on the results in more detail soon.

I'm a buyer again at 353p.

[padi] 23/3/2005 12:41

Anyone any ideas why the shareprice has fallen 70p in less than a week? The interim results were good and the fundamentals are rock solid...

[bench2] 17/3/2005 20:17

Better to travel than arrive? I can see nothing wrong in the interim numbers or outlook statement , apart from the £1.2m reduction in trade creditors since the year end which has eaten into the cash position. Purists will be disappointed in the modest growth in operating margin at 10.3% , and will question whether last year's 2nd half operating margin of 16.9% will be sustained on probable 2nd half'05 turnover of £22m. Over to you Mark.

[cwa1] 17/3/2005 09:53

Interims out...

[mark c graham] 23/2/2005 12:28

Thanks for the reminder - interim forecasts now added to header.

[bench2] 23/2/2005 12:07

Back to old highs in a nervous market is a good sign. Will you be posting your sales and profit forecasts for the interims to be announced on 17 March Mark?

[mark c graham] 18/2/2005 11:42

... or perhaps not.

[mark c graham] 17/2/2005 08:34

Tipped in "Shares" magazine this morning. Technical baloney, but might create a bit of buying interest ...

[mark c graham] 07/2/2005 06:41

Thanks, that's helpful.

[bench2] 06/2/2005 23:03

Mark,
If you went back 40 or 50 years a large number of public companies M&S , GUS, Sears, had a split voting structure to allow the founding family to retain control. So the Ords would have 10 times more votes than the A Ords. Normally the there would be say 10 million Ords in issue and 60 million A Ords.The A shares would be much more marketable and be owned by the large institutions, and the family and friends would own the Ords. The insurance companies and Pension Funds complained to the stock exchange to put pressure on companies to enfranchise the A's , which has happened.You can still find these sructures in the USA and Europe , but they are frowned upon. So it is extemely rare to find a company with this structure today. There are only about 5 companies left in the UK. New companies would not get a quote with this sort of structure. However you have rights, All A Ords rank pari passu with Ords for Dividends and in a wind up.But Dewhurst A Ords have no votes and you are not allowed to attend the company meetings , ask questions , or vote. But inferior voting power is reflected in a cheaper price , and A shares will nearly always trade at a discount to the ords, but as you get the same div you are buying on a higher yield and lower PER.Hope this helps.The Dewhurst family owns 51% of all the Ord shares.
Bench2

[mark c graham] 05/2/2005 18:40

bench2,

I've had a quick look at Dewhurst, and it does look interesting. Care to expand on the A/Ord structure? What are the differences between the two share types?