Thorpe (f.w.) Share Discussion Threads

[bench2] 05/2/2005 15:38

Mark,
I have reduced my tfw holding in favour of dwht, not such good margins or such a broad customer spread , but pristine b/s and serious cash position.But last year's ptp may mark high water mark for the next two years but div covered 4.8x , so family management will grow div at 5-6%pa compound regardless.Sadly just been discovered by IC . Don't be put off by A/Ord structure , value will out in the end ....just look at Gibbs & Dandy and Patterson Zoch ( PZ ) A's were a very cheap way in and you got a big yield while you waited.I hope to attend the AGM on Monday so will update you next week.

[mark c graham] 29/1/2005 09:24

Cambium,

I'm afraid the 16/09/04 figures in the header are my current analysis of TWF. I'm only working off published figures and I'll rework my projections once the interims come out on 17 March.

I try to err on the conservative side in making these forecasts, so I would hope to see the company narrowly beat them. The main uncertainty is cash. I was too high at year-end because they have stepped up capital spending. Even if that trend is continuing, they still have more cash than they need and should be returning the excess to shareholders. I remain hopeful of some news in that regard.

Mark

[cambium] 28/1/2005 09:12

Just read your header again, I would be interested in your current analysis of Thorpe and what you think the future is likely to hold. Please.

[cambium] 28/1/2005 09:09

But the story has just begun, only joking well done Mark.

[mark c graham] 28/1/2005 09:03

I sold just over half my holding at prices over 400p, since it was getting very close to my target price and I was also way overweight in this stock, relative to my normal level of holding.

In for nothing on the remainder, and happy to hold.

[aderemi] 24/1/2005 13:49

still going....

[mark c graham] 20/1/2005 09:39

Off we go again! Up today on three buys totalling 3,500 shares. Marketmakers are shorter than ever - maximum buy size on line is 100 shares (maxiumum sell is 2,500 shares).

[mark c graham] 19/1/2005 13:33

Performance stats in header updated.

After a long period of consolidation, this has started moving again today on the back of three buys, totalling 6,500 shares. Marketmakers apparently remain short of stock, so any sustained buying interest could get it motoring again.

Unfortunately, no news flow is expected until the interims, which should appear around 18 March.

[langland] 17/12/2004 08:46

Something is up here surely? And I don't just mean the share price. Would the family sell out for a fiver? Answers on a postcard please to....

[mark c graham] 16/12/2004 17:22

A 108,000 share buy today, which is one of top five biggest trades in this share this century. Also a 10,000 share buy at 355p, which is the highest price at which this share has ever traded.

I wish all my shares were like this one!

[cwa1] 16/12/2004 16:02

Nice little movement. Can only buy 150 online at the moment but can sell 15,000. Very tight market-and the most I have ever seen to sell online so far. Wonder if something is up?

[mark c graham] 25/11/2004 16:03

... or should that be quickly but surely?

[mark c graham] 25/11/2004 13:00

Slowly but surely ...

[mark c graham] 05/11/2004 15:18

That would do nicely!

[langland] 05/11/2004 14:11

This looks ready to blast higher again.... 350/360?

[mark c graham] 03/11/2004 13:53

Performance stats added to header.

[mark c graham] 20/10/2004 14:28

It's very gratifying, if rather mysterious. Volume is unremarkable (or at least that part reported so far is).

[langland] 20/10/2004 14:14

This is a nice surprise in what seems to be a pretty glum day.

[langland] 22/9/2004 06:52

Gone ex div today

[mark c graham] 16/9/2004 13:18

Forecasts added to header for next full year. Note that my turnover forecast is quite conservative. If they can maintain recent growth trends, they could beat these figures materially.

[kael] 16/9/2004 13:09

PE of 12 should give a shareprice of around £4. Convieniently, my target ;)

[mark c graham] 16/9/2004 13:05

Full year performance vs. forecast

Turnover : £37.8m actual vs. £35.1m expected
Pre-tax profit : £5.4m actual vs. £4.4m expected
Dividend : 8.6p actual vs. 7.2p expected
Cash : £7.6m actual vs. £8.9m expected
NAV per share : 209.7p actual vs. 206.2p expected

My turnover forecast was too low, operational gearing is high, so my profit margin forecast was too low and, hence my profit was too low.

My cash forecast was too high because capital expenditure was higher than I expected, and debtors/turnover rose to historically high levels.