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[yump] 13/1/2025 18:27

So does the chart of inward investment show an increased downward trend after the Truss mini-budget?

If so where can I see that?

Also the current issues did start immediately after the Reeves budget.

[spectoacc] 13/1/2025 16:35

Truss/Kwarteng caused immeasurable damage to the UK's reputation, to inward investment, to pension funds (LDI).

Labour trashed the economy in the 70's, it recovered. Doesn't mean they didn't trash it.

As for now - the current travails aren't a direct Budget reaction, but they do partially reflect Reeves' failed policies.

[stewart64] 13/1/2025 16:29

Hargreaves Dividend reinvestment day may have had some effect. Mine added today.

[stewart64] 12/1/2025 16:26

The rise in mortgage rates was global, we moved in concert with Canada, New Zealand, US, Aus...the Anglosphere. Just check out the swaps from Autumn 22 in the US for example. This time we have moved in concert with the US only. The Eurozone experienced rises in 22 but virtually nothing this time. If you compare the bond yields to the autumn of 22 by reference to International comparisons we have performed significantly worse in 24/25.

[hugepants] 12/1/2025 14:06

Ask tens of thousands of mortgage holders if it was temporary. Or API shareholders.

[yump] 12/1/2025 11:45

Oh no she didn’t - it was temporary.

[spectoacc] 12/1/2025 08:35

Reeves' supporters? Can you point me to them?

Truss caused immeasurable damage, the attempt to revise history is amusing.

[stewart64] 12/1/2025 07:57

Whatever Truss did or didn't do, I am amazed that the Reeves' supporters on here aren't at least a little perturbed by her hypocrisy and the pot calling the kettle black. She castigated Truss over increasing Bond yields with the most nasty hyperbolic language, but has zero embarrassment over her own budget causing a much more protracted crisis. And that's the key point, " protraction"; Truss measures were immediately reversed, causing a temporary blip, and Reeves is doubling down causing an extended crisis.

[yump] 10/1/2025 17:29

Reeves will have to join the queue for a lawyer at some point.

[spectoacc] 10/1/2025 16:31

Even better - it serves as a strong reminder of what a fiasco Truss presided over.

But I'd love to see it litigated.

[shieldbug] 10/1/2025 16:13

There are many different views of the economy. I doubt a case describing it one way or the other would get anywhere. Economists are not scientists.

Did Starmer say Truss trashed the "real" economy? Or does that need to be added for clarification. You can argue that the spike in interest rates reduced investment in the country and that "trashed" the economy.

The whole thing is pointless - and doesn't move the country forward.

[yump] 10/1/2025 10:06

The slander law is here to stop defamation, whether you love or hate the person. It was a stupid mini-budget, but “stupid” is not the defamatory comment. An accusation of trashing the economy and the rest, is not true and is very specific.

Truss reputation is hardly undamaged.

As you can tell from posts on advfn

[yump] 10/1/2025 10:00

Red ninja

I’m not sure posting facts on advfn is the done thing ;-)

[joe say] 10/1/2025 07:38

Clearly the customer services agent is correct

Highest rates since 2008 (when guess who was in power?)

Economy booming just as she promised

Her own budget likely to be in deficit - which we'll know within one month

IMF here we come

[spectoacc] 09/1/2025 18:28

I'd love to see it go to court - she'd get trounced.

(But still come out saying she'd won).

[spectoacc] 09/1/2025 18:28

I'd love to see it go to court - she'd get trounced.

[stewart64] 09/1/2025 12:17

Advfn ahead of the game on Starmer's defamatory statement. It was someone on this Trig thread that said Truss should sue.

[stewart64] 09/1/2025 12:09

Truss has sent a legal cease and desist notice to Starmer over his defamatory message that she crashed the Economy, which unless you are up to Political Mischief or work for the BBC, she clearly didn't. The real Economy was untouched and we certainly didn't have 30 year bond rates at 5.3% one quarter out because the Markets no longer believe the Economy can meet the Government's spending commitments. I had optimism back in 2023, I am now very pessimistic two years on as we buy growth by inflating public sector wages with zero productivity gains.

[red ninja] 09/1/2025 09:55

Yesterday's Times P2 has article "Chancellor 'within a whisker' of breaching main fiscal rule."

Apparently Rachel Reaves is within a whisker of being forced to raise taxes or cut spending due to borrowing hitting a 27 year high.

Economists warned their is a significant risk that she could breach the governments main fiscal rule when Office For Budget Responsibility meets in March.

..

[red ninja] 02/1/2025 13:27

As stated the Truss changes were not made and she was out of office in 2 weeks.

Thus any economic changes were as the Critic article states were not due to Liz Truss, but due to money printing to pay for all that cash given out in the pandemic.



If you happened to take out a mortgage (or remortgaged) in the autumn of 2022, you can reasonably blame Liz Truss for getting a rate closer to 6 per cent than 5 per cent, but it is absurd to blame the mini-budget for mortgage rates today. As one mortgage expert said a year after the mini-budget: “Would we be in the same situation now if the budget hadn’t happened at all? I think we would probably be here or hereabouts, certainly in terms of rate.”

The main determinant of UK mortgage rates is Bank Rate and that is determined by inflation and expectations of inflation. It was the same across Europe and in the USA: inflation rose therefore interest rates rose therefore mortgage rates rose. Liz Truss had about as much impact on long term interest rates and mortgage rates in the UK as she did in America. A mini-budget that was undone before it could be implemented caused a month of chaos but has made virtually no difference to any macroeconomic variables since October 2022 when inflation peaked.

The Conservative Party’s reluctance to challenge the narrative that Liz Truss caused the cost of living crisis is understandable on one level. Rishi Sunak’s claim to Downing Street rests on being the grown up who took the car keys off a drunk. But all the electorate really hears is that the Conservatives crashed the economy with a mad experiment that they would probably repeat if they got the chance.

Sunak could level with the public and tell them that the Bank of England printed a tremendous amount of money for him to give away back when he was popular during lockdown. This caused inflation, as it did in other countries where QE was tested to destruction, and he had warned about the risks of rising inflation and higher interests in 2020 when many people thought the magic money tree would last forever. Getting inflation down required higher interest rates and therefore higher mortgage rates, but interest rates had been insanely low for years and most other western countries had to tackle inflation in the same way. There are no free lunches and the last two years have been payback time. It’s been painful but the British public were generally very keen on lockdowns, furlough and “free” tests. Even today, only 21 per cent of Britons think Covid rules were too strict while 38 per cent think they didn’t go far enough. Everything that has happened since has been the inevitable consequence of policies that were wildly popular at the time and which the opposition parties wanted to do more of.

This might be too bitter a pill for the public to swallow, but Sunak has tried everything else, so why not try telling the truth?"

[cc2014] 02/1/2025 10:15

These attempts to re-write history by choosing particular facts are flawed.


Choosing the US 30 gilt as a comparator is just plain wrong. Further even choosing the 30 year UK gilt is not much better. The reason it didn't move so much is because the BOE intervened and was the sole buyer in the market due to the Truss fiasco.

As someone who traded bonds at this very difficult time I made alot of money. The prices available were just crazy. And anything in the 2-10 year maturity area sure didn't reverse in a month. I know as I held my positions for around 6-9 months.

[spectoacc] 02/1/2025 09:43

Reeves is inept, we agree there.

"I accept it may have caused some people a problem with their mortgage rate renewals" isn't the half of it. It isn't even 10% of the fiasco Truss/Kwarteng caused. You wouldn't trust them with the school PTA funds, let alone the economy - it'll take the Tories a generation or more to live it down.

Reeves you wouldn't trust with an individual school's budget.