The Renewables Infrastru... Share Discussion Threads

[joey52] 27/6/2023 21:18

Topvest, I posted this on the fixed income board yesterday.
Might be of use, rates improved today

hxxps://www.yieldgimp.com/gilt-yields

[topvest] 27/6/2023 20:03

Thanks very much SpectoAcc - yes, just taken a look on UK short gilts and, unsurprisingly, you now get 5%. Will give that a whirl tomorrow, to see how easy it is to trade. I've not purchased bonds since 2009 or so...so I'm a bit rusty! TN24 etc. looks quite good. It should earn me 2% more on my cash pile for no risk.

[spectoacc] 27/6/2023 19:22

Short-dated Gilts - CGT-free, can sell again if need the cash to invest (& likely for more than you paid, if it's the equity crash).

You might enjoy this @Topvest - agree re crypto/US:

[topvest] 27/6/2023 18:19

I'm not sure its that easy to get 5% interest on cash - I'm getting about 3%, but I'm holding cash to reinvest. You can get c4% in a reputable bank or NS&I 1 year bond. Sure, you can lock it away for 5% (often with a non-blue chip bank) but that's no use if we have a full on bear market / we have bank runs. The opportunity to invest at or near the bottom will be missed. You get 6.5% here and its growing and tax free in an ISA. You just have to stomach the volatility.
Personally, I'm happy to hold this one for years.
Still holding high cash balances though until the US bubbles burst (crypto and tech). That's always been my big buy signal on buying riskier shares for what its worth. I really cannot believe the Americans - bitcoin back to 30k and they are bidding Nvidia to a P/E of 200. Speculation gone mad. It can't end well and the UK market won't bottom until the US snaps.

[cc2014] 27/6/2023 06:28

Indeed. Where are the buyers coming from?

With QT that's sellers not buyers
PI's selling to pay the mortgage
PI's reducing pension payments to pay the mortage
PI's now getting 5% on cash so why bother with the stock market
Likewise funds/institutions buying gilts.

Stocks may be may not be cheap depending on your view but it's hard to make money fighting the money flow.

[spectoacc] 26/6/2023 20:24

@topvest - noted, and largely agree, but - where's the bottom? I thought it was 77p on SUPR the other week, and above that on GCP. Impossible really to call the bottom, but eg HICL I paid £1.34 for just days ago, today I got more below £1.20.

Wish I'd waited.

40% Gilts/gold because I think things have at least the potential to get a whole lot worse.

Or put another way - falls never stop at FV, and whilst a lot looks cheap, is it going to get cheaper? Where are the buyers going to come from?

[makinbuks] 26/6/2023 17:56

Nice to see director buys but don't think it will help much when the issue is future interest rate expectations.

[topvest] 26/6/2023 16:03

10 year rates topped at 4.5% last week and are now back to 4.3%. 2 year rates are 5.1%. 1 year is about 5.4%. Anyway you look at this, its good value on a yield basis given the very high quality of the portfolio! Panic selling no doubt.

[topvest] 26/6/2023 15:48

OK, quick sense check. You get a 6-7% yield on infrastructure (+ likely to be growing). Unilever and Diageo offer 3.5% and 2.5% yield growing at 5% max. You can get say 4% easily on cash, more if you lock it away. Renewables are looking attractive in my view. Obviously Unilever and Diageo are great quality, but you would want a starting yield at about 4% to be attractive if they are only growing their dividends slowly. It's a buyers market again in some places. Everyone is buying US mega tech - yield on offer close to zero. It's a crazy world if you look on investments as a dividend investor!

[spectoacc] 26/6/2023 15:48

My fear is if 1990's re-run is only just starting, & how much pain is still to be taken.

Other fear is that we're getting these falls without the US crash, without FTSE100 doing much at all. What will things look like if the S&P falls 40%?

Bought some of the IMO slightly safer REITs on their big falls on Fri (LXI, SHED, more SUPR, EBOX) & picked up some HICL, GCP, SEIT today. Sadly the latter three all averages, particularly the last two, and well out of the money.

But can never resist "cheap", even when likely getting cheaper.

I wasn't for a property crash, but seems unavoidable now. Prices are set at the margins, and if eg 5% of people have to sell up, that's a lot of property that won't find buyers at current prices.

(I'm also for interest rates going nowhere near 6.5%, & biggest holdings long-dated Gilts, short-dated Gilts, gold).

[hindsight] 26/6/2023 15:42

Agree topvest, just Resi to crack and 1990s re-run will be complete

[topvest] 26/6/2023 14:27

I've added some more today, so my position size here is now about right. A 6.5% yield (and well covered and increasing) is a good long term bet particularly when you get a 20% discount. This is a quality vehicle. Happy to hold and collect irrespective of short-term weakness. Interest rates and short-term bonds may go a tad higher, but I would be surprised if they don't top out somewhere below 6% both here and in the US. Let's face it, things are going to start breaking 'big-time' after 15 years of free money. The real issue is who is going to be building these assets if the listed vehicles can't raise any money?!

Thinking out loud fundraising anything at the moment is virtually impossible unless you have private equity. Listed markets are closed. Debt and RCFs are too expensive. Recession coming and interest rates will drop like a stone once it is clear that the economy has crashed. The 1% inversion of the yield curve is shouting a massive warning, but is being ignored. Its the biggest inversion for 40 years and is 1-yr old on 5 July!

[the deacon] 26/6/2023 13:03

Agreed. I've added quite a lot here and a few other renewables funds

[pinemartin9] 26/6/2023 12:55

Starting to look very cheap here!

[stewart64] 19/6/2023 10:46

Quite a correction today. When you can get nearly 6% FSCS protected in a 3 year Bond then the yield gap is almost at parity. And to be fair to savers, that's probably right. Why should asset holders and the Government always pay negative real interest rates on their debt. Obvs they still are, but I think that the direction of the two will soon cross. You need to be above the curve ultimately to sort the inflation the MPC/ Government largesse on bennies/ Welfare has unleashed on us.

[tuftymatt] 18/6/2023 08:03

Yeah I hold this along with NESF and a recent position in FSFL too. All look weak in the short term but as we keep being told this is the sector to be in for the long term as it's what the world needs badly.

I agree that interest rates are playing a part in a move from risk on to risk off but as Gateside said, get a decent yield here with a good chance of capital growth too when rates fall at some point next year.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[stewart64] 18/6/2023 07:27

Covid flash crash aside, this is the lowest weekend finish since March 2019. That surprises me, it's not a REIT, it's not debt, it's Equity in the future. Maybe the Bank of England's Banana Republic style incompetence/ 5.75% Base Rates are already priced in at this level

[gateside] 20/5/2023 20:54

I currently hold the following....
Some nice yields.
Buy now while interest rates for cash are still high, that way you'll lock in higher yields, and most likely get some capital gain when the BoE starts reducing interest rates.

NESF 8.1
FSFL 6.9
GSF 6.7
SEIT 6.3
JLEN 6.2
BSIF 6.2
TRIG 5.9
DORE 5.0

[stewart64] 20/5/2023 20:00

Your argument would stand up if we were mirroring the inflation rate of other advanced economies, we are about double the average. He presided over a zero rate interest rate policy coming out of Covid when we there were supply side constraints and overwhelming demand, you couldn't even book a restaurant table and meanwhile the housing Market stepped into overdrive with its ( now) knock on effects on rental and housing costs. These were school boy errors of the first order.

[smidge21] 20/5/2023 16:13

So, what would you have had him do in the face of a global energy spuke and widespread shortages? Surging demand was never the problem. Best they could have hoped for was to limit imported inflation by keeping £ firm and this they have done after allowing for the Truss debacle and, even in that, the BoE orchestrated the end of Truss by ending Gilt support programme. He/they brought down a rogue Administration that would have impoverished us all - but he can hardly say that

[stewart64] 20/5/2023 15:55

Bailey is beyond hopeless he has missed the 2% target by 200% since he took over. ( 20% inflation against just over 6% targeted). We would now need 6 years of zero inflation to get back to where we should be. The least they can do is take away his index linked pension, let him have one that goes up 2% each year. Maybe then he might take the 2% target seriously.

[hindsight] 20/5/2023 11:02

I experienced Bailey in the ECN saga when he was head of FCA. It beggers belief how such hopeless people get these top jobs

Anyway sold some Jlen and added here

[igoe104] 20/5/2023 09:21

Him and the government both countable. Billions of pounds wasted in these business loans, that have never been paid back. Some folks only had small market stalls but still could get upto 50k a per business. No wonder a few months later, loads were filing for bankruptcy. They didn't even bother checking these properly and were giving them 50k within 74 hours. Now the rest of us are having to pay up for the mess with increased taxes like capital gain threshold reductions etc etc

[stewart64] 20/5/2023 09:03

Andrew Bailey's complete incompetence at printing money whilst interest rates were at zero during a post Covid boom now coming home to roost I'm afraid.One and two year cash fixes now approaching 5% and rates are not coming down when we have the worst inflation record of any advanced world economy. Why take the Equity risk when cash is almost matching the best dividend payouts.

How the hell Bailey has the gall to claim it is not his fault. He has done the worst job of any public figure ever

[tuftymatt] 04/5/2023 08:06

I was hopeful of a run towards 135 ahead of ex divi in a week but with wider market issues I am not so sure now.

Good luck all 👍🏻