Whilst it's a legitimate issue for discussion, the deceptively named REF is not a reliable source hxxps://www.desmog.com/renewable-energy-foundation/ |
httpS://www.renewableenergyhub.co.uk/main/wind-turbines/how-long-will-the-wind-turbine-last |
 Nonsense its been known for a long time, so lifetime extension involves replacing the gears, turbine and sails is by and large the same price as fitting a brand new one every 10-15 years- because you have to dismantle the old one piece by piece with a giant crane (or floating cranes + several helicopters and a ship) just to replace everything !
the issues are well documented:
Real world data is hard to find and well hidden, especially from investors, obviously lifespan depends on location and usage and output, but its no wonder globally the price of all windfarm equipment manufacturers and projects is down the toilet.
As of November 2016, the UK had 19 listed onshore wind farms at >20 years old: of these only eleven were actually in operation (only through lifetime extension), Two were decommissioned, and five were scheduled to be rebuilt. [19], [20]. No public information was available for the one remaining wind farm. In total fourteen rebuilding projects had either been approved or completed in the UK since 2010 [21]. |
Turbines have a 20 to 30 year life span |
BBGI cash offer could be a factor in helping TRIG share price today. |
Well TRIG is investing in batteries from scratch and must see value in them.
I read the other day that battery storage will have to increase by 6x to even out the grid so their seems plenty of demand.
Fig does not have to develop just for TRIG, it can develop and sell to other customers /clients. |
Batteries don't seem such a good idea when you look at the GRID & GSF charts! I have a chunk of GSF, unfortunately...
Hope to see continued diversification of region and generation technology here, still a bit UK and wind heavy. I prefer the portfolio on AERS, but as it is winding down (and TRIG got cheaper) bought in here too |
The long term downward trend in renewables has sapped confidence here, but many appear
to be making progress.
TRIGs move into battery storage (via Fig) will hopefully give them a Nav appreciating diversification.
Anyway accumulated a few more today. Time will tell if that was a wise move or not.
Do Your Own Research... |
Socialists find it far more fun just taxing everything! |
Got to the stage with all these trusts , that if millipede had a brain he would go for them all via nationalise them at present prices even 10% on top, that would be better for us all than the carbon capture rubbish. |
Looking more like a giant scam everyday |
If you make new investments at 120p in the pound and they immediately trade at 77p then it is pointless growing the balance sheet or bringing in new power sources imo. All you can do is sweat existing assets and buy back your own shares until the pendulum swings..very profitably too if the Market is irrational with the pricing of stock.
The short term plan is to get debt to zero by 2030 which will impede new investment I would have thought. |
Adam - yea, it'll be worse offshore and maintenance is almost certainly more expensive.
Like any kind of asset, wind turbines will have an expected lifetime and, if there's not a replacement plan involving new generation sources then, all other things being equal ( which they never are, but you have to assume something ) then the NAV of the company will drop.
But there's a pipeline for new generation over the next five to ten years which should help mitigate that. I guess the big question is whether or not the management are likely to get the big calls right on bringing new generation online or are they mainly sweating assets ? |
Thanks for that. That is 10 years old and seems to be about onshore wind farms (refers to 16% over a decade). Whereas offshore in the NS I think is more like 4.5% per annum. I’m enquiring rather than stating. |
Degradation is a real thing, but I'm not sure NetZeroWatch are exactly unbiased !
gives a more detailed account
All power sources degrade over time. For various reasons, gas, nuclear, coal and solar have drop offs too. You can mitigate this with good maintenance, bur there's always a time when it becomes economic to replace rather than repair. |
I would expect so. If you’re losing 1% per annum it’s not an issue even over 15 years but I’m not sure what the loss is for the 10MW jobbies. Leading edge erosion is the biggest factor I think then surface roughness, delamination and cracking. The chatbots say anywhere from 1% to 10% which is quite a wide range! North Sea off shore will be a harsh environment. |
Thanks for the chart Adam, could falling output by age be a result of maintenance becoming more common in older turbines as opposed to losing efficiency? |
So broadly my understanding is that the larger 10MW turbines have blade tip speeds in excess of 200mph. So the damage done to the blades by wear and tear increases. Thereby the aerodynamic efficiency. Also mechanical maintenance downtime increases due to the increased stress. It doesn’t seem to be a big problem except for the largest of turbines. |
its why TRIG utilise these guys
hxxps://www.res-group.com/ |
Should still factor in the NAV, they must write down the value of each mill each year to what is deemed its lifespan and falling output. The 14p or so write down in NAV over the last two years nevertheless appears to have been more about wholesale electricity prices and Bond yields than depreciation. |
I think you need to quote a reputable technical source. |
No I meant the amount of power they produce declines apparently. Much more steeply for the bigger ones. I’m not sure why. |
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