The Renewables Infrastru... Share Discussion Threads

[tuftymatt] 08/12/2022 10:48

Yeah it has me scratching my head too Gateside.
140 not 130 is where I thought we would be by now or maybe even closer to 150.

[gateside] 08/12/2022 10:20

Can't quite work out why this has underperformed other renewables this year?For example TRIG is -3% YTDWhile JLEN is +20%

[igoe104] 23/11/2022 11:55

You would of thought it was great news, with the supreme Court overruling today. For Trig....

[carterit] 18/11/2022 17:44

From citywire today....
Funds such as Greencoat UK Wind (UKW) and Bluefield Solar Income (BSIF) with the highest exposure to subsidised CfD and ROC revenues should see a smaller reduction in NAVs, said Winterflood’s Ratnasingam.

UK Wind rose 3% yesterday, one of the biggest risers in the sector, and rallied another 3.7% today. Foresight Solar (FSFL) and NextEnergy Solar (NESF) gained over 2% yesterday.

The latter’s rise may have surprised Ratnasingam as he believed FSFL could be the most vulnerable to a knock to NAV as it had recently set its power price assumption at the higher end of the sector range of £80-£175/MWh for 2023 and £65-£150/MWh in 2024.

By contrast, he said NESF was ‘relatively attractive’ because of its investments in battery storage through a 500MW joint venture with Eelpower. Investor’s Newell estimated it was in line for a reduction in NAV of just 0.3%.

However, further clarification is needed as Chande included NESF, BSIF and UKW in a list of five that also included Renewables Infrastructure Group (TRIG) and JLEN he believed could see reductions of around 2.5% in NAV.

‘Arguably this is already reflected in discounts,’ he said. Until the smoke clears, however, those gaps between share prices and NAVs look set to remain.

[yump] 26/10/2022 11:35

Yes that would be good. Unfortunately I had already bought a few others over the last year but luckily only a few near the peak prices !

Still good yields on gilts but not daft levels.

[tuftymatt] 26/10/2022 10:46

Good to see the recent dip has helped you out yump.
I picked a few up too and find myself back in profit this morning which you can never complain about.
Let's hope it was all a big overreaction and we can push back into the 140's and then eventually beyond 👍🏻

[yump] 26/10/2022 10:25

Been interesting seeing the sudden movements of these trusts. I needed to move some chunks of money into income stocks and funds, so its been a bit of a gift.

Assuming that the spiky bottoms were a temporary overreaction, unlike the gradual deterioration of many shares, based on a deteriorating economy.

[yump] 11/10/2022 15:45

I imagine there's quite a bit of forced selling involved in the renewables trusts. Not a bad time to be holding cash as a pi, assuming various governments don't contribute any more to trashing the planet.

[deeker] 11/10/2022 13:40

That long term chart is a reminder on how the markets can wipe out 18 months worth of share price gains very quickly.

[jonwig] 10/10/2022 09:04

FT article weekend. Maybe I should have posted it in more places:

The UK government is pressing ahead with plans to cap revenues that renewable electricity generators are making from sky-high wholesale power prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Companies generating power from wind and solar fear the plans, similar to proposals already announced by the European Union, will effectively amount to a windfall tax on renewable energy.
- - -
The government had been hoping to persuade electricity generators to agree voluntarily to 15-year fixed-price contracts well below current wholesale rates for their output.



The sky high profits are from the ROCs contracts, which were replaced in 2017 by FIT/CFD contracts, where excessive profits are impossible. However, existing ROCS can continue until 2037.

This would be harsher than Sunak's windfall tax on O&G prodicers. It wll need legislation, which Labour and some Tories would probably not support. (Nor would I, but that's irrelevant.)

[stewart64] 10/10/2022 08:54

Well a real dip today...worse elsewhere UKW down 5%. Couple of reasons may be?..fear of political interference. Also anticipating rate rises in the cash Market. Allica Bank, Close Brothers zapping up to 4.6% fixed for 2 years fully FSA protected, then suddenly a 5% dividend isn't that outstanding, even with the extra prospect of growth.

[stewart64] 04/10/2022 12:53

Still stubbornly sticking around 128p. Some of these Bond proxies have gone to the Moon in the last week not least GCP from 85p to 102p. Sometimes there is no rhyme nor reason why the Market would leave out TRIG. UKW up 2%, too, I see today. Surely a trading opportunity just now.

[gateside] 30/9/2022 22:23

Both UKW and TRIG are far away from possible promotion to the FTSE100

[stewart64] 30/9/2022 21:04

Indeed, the price of Greencoat is a great bellwether to where this should be. If the price of the two converge ( as they do occasionally) then TRIG is looking a tad expensive. If Greencoat commands a 10% premium that's about par. However, 150/127...and TRIG is looking cheap and out of kilter. And historically has always closed that gap in the last few years ( whence the two have had very similar Market caps and price movements).

[gateside] 30/9/2022 18:35

Curious as to why TRIG did not bounce back like other Renewable Funds in the last couple of days.

[wad collector] 28/9/2022 08:34

Hard to see that this is not a resilient sector to whatever happens next in the Markets. Whatever the short term political pressures and decisions, the World has to go down the Renewable energy route. Whether this is the best vehicle is another question, but somewhere to gamble some of my portfolio. Just added at 127p.

[tuftymatt] 26/9/2022 21:08

Don't sell just buy the dip if you can or hold.
Markets are in a tail spin right now so hang on and remember this is a long game.

[davr0s] 26/9/2022 19:23

Or calm down - seem to seeing the same hysteria on other threads

[voci] 26/9/2022 18:27

TRIG down over 5% today!

The whole renewables sector has been smashed today.

Buy the dip?
Sell out to avoid further losses?
Hang in there and keep on collecting the quarterly dividend?

[makinbuks] 09/9/2022 18:45

Great comment, what drives the lead time?

[mrcontrarian1] 08/9/2022 10:27

Yep, good news they are diversifying even more. My surprise is how long the lead times are on these battery projects! Thought it would be much quicker, but what do I know…

[tuftymatt] 08/9/2022 09:59

Very good and hopefully this can challenge 150p again very soon.

[davebowler] 08/9/2022 09:56

Liberum;
Renewable Infrastructure Group

Battery storage investment

Mkt Cap £3,510m | Share price 141.60p | Prem/(disc) 5.8% | Div yield 4.8%

Event

Renewable Infrastructure Group (TRIG) acquired the right to develop three battery storage sites in the North of England. The first two projects are scheduled for grid connection in 2024 and 2025 and will have a capacity of 165MW with a two-hour duration. The third site (85MW) will be built later and is expected to be connected in 2029, possibly earlier. Once the first two sites are built and connected to the grid (2025), they will represent an estimated 4% of the portfolio by value. The sites each have land rights, planning permission and grid connection agreements secured. While energy storage is a relatively new investment for TRIG, the managers (InfraRed and RES) have extensive knowledge, in the sector going back over a decade. The managers also are mindful of the sustainability challenges, particularly in the supply chain of battery materials and these considerations will be reflected in the procurement framework.

Liberum view

This investment is a key milestone as it follows through on the strategy laid out at the CMD in April. Currently, battery storage accounts for only 0.4% of the portfolio, but will grow tenfold based on this investment. As renewable energy becomes a more important part of the electricity grid flexible capacity is increasingly needed to smooth intraday variability in the availability of renewable energy. We believe that in the foreseeable future flexible capacity installations have higher operating margins because there is chronic underinvestment in the sector so far. Furthermore, revenues from energy storage tend to have a low correlation with wholesale power prices received by renewables generators. The projects developed by TRIG also have the added advantage of having a two-hour duration, which is at the longer end of such projects and allows TRIG to extend its trading options in the wholesale market

Investors also seem to place a larger premium on energy storage as evidenced by the premia to NAV of the two oldest pure-play energy storage investments in the market, which trade at an average premium of 20.6% compared to the 5.8% premium for TRIG and 1.6% premium to NAV for renewable energy infrastructure ex energy storage overall.

[tuftymatt] 05/8/2022 13:13

Yeah based on this mornings figures, it's looking good.

H1 2022 Key Highlights

- 134.2p Net Asset Value (NAV) per share(1) , increased by 12.5% since 31 Dec 2021 (119.3p)
- GBP3,236m Directors' portfolio valuation(2) , up 18.7% since 31 Dec 2021 (GBP2,726m)
- 6.84p dividend target reaffirmed for the year to December 2022 (2021: 6.76p)
- 1.39x dividend cover(3) for the six months to 30 June 2022 (H1 2021: 1.28x)
- GBP442m invested year to date (H1 2021: GBP341m)
- 17.9p earnings per share (H1 2021: 1.8p)

[panshanger1] 05/8/2022 13:09

Impressive move higher here in recent days