Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[tonytyke2] 20/5/2022 10:52

Cracking, indicating a significant earnings upgrade! Metals in general have come off more recently, but chrome still doing well.

[catsick] 20/5/2022 10:49

This rns is a bit confusing, the impact of the business combination impacts one eps but not the other, one is a better result and one is worse, how about giving some more colour, neither numbers are bad really but there is no point putting something out to clarify an earnings change without explaining it properly, unless the blm deal was so good it's best not discussed

[ntv] 20/5/2022 10:29

Sailing John
Apologies as typo error on my part
I should have put $288 as I had looked at their twitter feed

[sailing john] 18/5/2022 16:07

NTV that isn't correct - probably weeks out of date
For info SA Cr2 O3 conc 40-42% was priced at $288.2/t on the 13th May.
It's been rising steadily for the past 2 months and was last at $230 on 1st April and has been rising steadily ever since. Fast markets yesterday suggested prices stabilised this week so likely to be around $285

[ntv] 18/5/2022 15:16

Chrome was $228/t on Monday

[mfhmfh] 18/5/2022 10:23

looking forward to the interims on 26th May.

[redtrend] 13/5/2022 14:56

Deadly is correct with respect to Chrome which is at $277/tn, a huge increase.

Based on the recent Tamesis site visit report: "The current product price is c.$280/t and it costs c.$100/t to get the chrome to China i.e. by the end of the quarter operational cashflow will be in the order of $70m pre tax etc". So $280m pre tax before pushing Vulcan to full capacity and achieving 2Mtpa, which would yield $360m.


hxxps://www.tamesispartners.com/research-portal#/portal/tamesis-partners/research/37_2022051111514849834

I think most PIs don't quite understand the numbers and only focus on PGMs (which are still at hugely profitable prices). The Annual Report always provides breakdowns of revenues by PGM and Chrome stream, so for those inclined, you can do quite an easy rough back of the packet breakdown, including AISCs for PGM and Chrome respectively.

I tend to be more conservative and think costs of Chrome will be higher than $100/tn when accounting for inflation, but hopefully this will be offset when Vulcan ramps up and economies of scale push prices down per tonne.

The market is still not factoring in the major change in THS structure with the BEE % now a THS shareholder nor Karo Resources. I'm slightly concerned by the slower than expected cash build in the last Q results, so I'm hoping in the Interims this is formally clarified and shows up in the Trade Receivables and is merely a delay in hitting the books.

[sotolo] 12/5/2022 12:10

Commodity prices increasing? Sorry the share price is falling as our basket is down around a quarter and still tumbling with Chinese shutdown forcing world car makers to go slow. So far luckily chromium is so far holdin but for how long with Chinese shutdown

[deadly] 11/5/2022 10:14

Crazy fall in price recently, considering commodity prices are holding, even increasing.

[nakedmolerat] 10/5/2022 15:09

bought back in as on the 200ma, onwards and upwards. good dividends, nice growth....

[sailing john] 28/4/2022 16:52

"Sotolo27 Apr '22
Can you or anyone tell me about how much profit is PGMs, how much chromium at the latter’s rosy price."

I don't think it's possible to separate profitability out since they have to mine material whether it is for Chrome or pgm extraction. But nor is there a need and I just lump all costs into one number.

With regard to Revenue - here are recent years (note PGM before 15%? approx 3rd party smelting)
$m.. Chr PGM
2018 269 141
2019 209 151
2020 188 242
2021 233 485
2022 330 446
2022 my model

Longer term my model
2025 320 400 +Karo PGM from FY2025

[sailing john] 28/4/2022 16:21

From Tharisa Twitter today

Tharisa ‘s stock had its “buy” rating reaffirmed by analysts at Berenberg Bank in a report issued on Tuesday, MarketBeat reports. They have a GBX 250 ($3.19) price objective on the stock. Berenberg’s target price points to a potential upside of 73.49%

They must have been looking at my model inc Karo!!

[sotolo] 27/4/2022 07:10

Thanks John

Can you or anyone tell me about how much profit is PGMs, how much chromium at the latter’s rosy price.
we know the PGM ounces are now above usual 160k. What would you guess the total costs per ounce, aisc, for the PGM’s is, $1000 or $1500 an ounce?
More important how many ounces of chromium do we sell at what cost per ounce including transport, invest,etc
Ie how much of the profit at current prices is chrome, how much PGMs
I wonder if it is like Hochschild that people still think is a silver mine (with a bit of gold) and shoots around with the silver price, when it is in fact now a gold mine with some silver.
Are we getting to be a Chromium mine with some PGM’s with Vulcan upcoming Zim and rising prices?
Thanks I am sure somewhere in the reports but just if anyone knows without me having to wade through

[sailing john] 26/4/2022 11:10

Tharisa just updated spot PGM and Chrome prices see Twitter
Slight fall in pgm basket to $2882 but this is still well above Q1 $2394 and Q2 $2806

Of more interest is that there has been a further increase in Chrome to 280-290 (typically around 150-160 and looking back at my records from 2017 I've not seen it much over 200 in the past 5 years (range 130-205ish) Just hoping that transportation issues not affecting THS Chrome exports to China (SA to/from ports and China ports) I have no info on this other than odd comments in the press over the past few months that aren't specific to Chrome.

Anyone else?

[ukgeorge] 25/4/2022 09:30

Good logic DP, the mining sector is getting hit and talks of recession are increasing. The car sector seems to have so many problems.

That said Rhodium and palladium prices remain historically high and the general mining sector is making high profits.

The last few recessions have been met by money printing so chances are they will use the same once again. Inflation is clearly out of control.

It is a bit of a weird one, in that at least mining companies are producing something real that should continue to rise, especially the metals in the green transition space. But then we have the war, and poorly managed economies. Buying opportunity or top of the market.....

[donald pond] 25/4/2022 09:09

I sold out at 160 earlier on. Miners in freefall and THS had held up ok so seemed sensible

[sotolo] 25/4/2022 08:48

Mo one else here,well it seems that viz the last post here, mine of the week before last, it has mattered, the Chinese producrtionnslowdown combined with expected lower auto demand in coming recession is hitting prices hard, and presumably will be harder....

[sotolo] 16/4/2022 14:45

Does anybody think that Chinese car factories closing, with the Covid lockdown, might matter much to the price next week, rh is feeling slightly iffy and the others already turning back a bit?

[martinfrench] 13/4/2022 15:38

based on ths behaviour will prob be around £2, 2.50 bit of a stretch, not that it isnt worth it, it is but......

[eggbaconandbubble] 13/4/2022 13:09

If nought else I admire your optimism!

[basem1] 13/4/2022 11:58

Stubborn today Lots of buys We should see 2.50 gbp in the next 3-6 months

[sailing john] 12/4/2022 09:00

Not much change to my 1H model with prices higher than forecast but production slightly lower. My model - 1H eps now 20.5p and 2H 27.7p so total 48.2p

Interesting to compare 1H 21 vs 1H 22 my model (having bought out BEE and increased shares)
$m. 1H21 1H22 FY22
Rev 314. 333. 726
PBT 105. 113. 266
eps 15.2 20.5 48.2
eps is owners for 2021
2021 - actual (2022 my model)

Interested in anyone else's views tia
Edit my 2H eps higher than 1H on increased 2H production and higher chrome prices.

[saltraider] 12/4/2022 08:58

@basem1 ... thanks for explanation.