Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[ukgeorge] 03/3/2021 09:30

Looks like the breakout is starting, thanks for you analysis Sailing John.

[croasdalelfc] 03/3/2021 08:41

Basket hits $4k . Close to $900m runrate at these prices . 5 months into the year and $750m minimum revenue is pretty much nailed on

[sailing john] 02/3/2021 23:33

As this is currently my largest holding by a large margin I suppose I should say hello. Held a few years back as a Chrome play and bought back an opening position last year as a PGM play. Have been adding significantly in the 120s and my average is now around 125.

I build models wherever possible and based on Q1 actual and PGM spot and an assumed 10%? refining margin I have an eps of 22p for H1 and 53p for FY a PE of under 2.5

I'm happy to share my model assumptions when I have time - always useful to get feedback to enable me to refine.

Regarding the apparent Insti seller FIL? I think it is likely they have reached their risk management limit for either the individual stock or the sector/country (following recent significant price rises) and have effectively become a forced seller. This is putting a useful drag on the price if like me you have been buying vol. I'm not expecting a sharp rise as I think the risk limit is capital invested not percentage held and so with each rise in the price I think the risk management limit will force further sells and therefore only a slow rise towards my target of 200p+ over the next few months.

Another observation is the publicity THS management are giving to the company and in particular basket price rises via Twitter on a weekly basis. I think they want the price higher to avoid a cheeky bid given that the big SA miners are currently looking at billion pound projects to increase PGM production and another option of course is an acquisition.

Feedback welcome

SJ

[ukgeorge] 02/3/2021 16:41

At current metals prices on an annual basis Rhodium revenue is $337M
Platinum $93M and Palladium $50M

Staggering

[ukgeorge] 02/3/2021 16:32

hTTps://www.kitco.com/charts/rhodium.html

Rhodium which is a major by product for Tharisa is continuing to go from strength to strength. Incredible run over five years it has had a low of $575 and today it is up $500 to $25,000/oz

[fullbreakfast] 02/3/2021 15:42

I joined you Mr breakfast

...and I joined you and myself by buying yet again today. Cosy in here isn't it.

Now we just need the wider world to notice that this company is TOO BLEEDING CHEAP.

[croasdalelfc] 02/3/2021 10:14

PGM basket now $3900 plus

[basem1] 01/3/2021 09:11

Yes the price is well behind the curve because of our sellers

[ukgeorge] 01/3/2021 08:28

Rhodium was one of the few metals not to get trashed last week. Must be making some serious hey at these prices.

[martinfrench] 26/2/2021 16:34

I joined you Mr breakfast

[fullbreakfast] 26/2/2021 15:33

I suppose we should all be grateful to "the seller" for allowing us to continue accumulating shares at these levels.

[fullbreakfast] 26/2/2021 15:23

It has doubled in six months - not dull at all. I hold.

I was kinda taking the p*ss out of myself as these frothy markets are in danger of turning me into an over-caffeinated, ADHD-afflicted loon. I mean sure it's doubled, but that was like two months ago dude. Feels like about ten years.

Still offensively cheap. I added some more to my SIPP holding this morning at 130. This has become one of my larger metals holdings.

[basem1] 24/2/2021 14:53

Gents is the dividend tax rate 20% Which would equal a payout of 2.096p per share ? I have googled it

[basem1] 24/2/2021 09:31

Looking lively today Fair bit of selling yesterday nicely absorbed Ex dividend tomorrow

[davebowler] 22/2/2021 11:03

Liberum on Sylvania today...

"Sylvania have declared a one-off windfall dividend of c.5.2 cents per share, 27% above our estimate of 4.1 cents. We expect a final dividend at the full year results of 4 cents, giving a combined yield of 6.4% in 2021. Sitting with $67m of cash and generating $155m of FCF at spot prices (35% FCF yield), with no major capex commitments, dividends look set to rise materially going forward. Basket prices hit a new record high today of c. R65,000/oz, and whilst this would normally make some investor nervous, we believe that the fundamentals for rhodium are solid on a three year view (see here). Top pick in mining."

[basem1] 21/2/2021 11:53

Some excellent posts over there I had not realised just how cheap this stock is with ebitda likely to be higher than $300m USD this next year. Will add tomorrow Does anyone know how much dividend we will end up after tax The before tax amount is 2.62p Ex Dividend on Thursday ?

[davebowler] 19/2/2021 15:28

hTTps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dm9Y5aihAJc

[whitehunter] 19/2/2021 15:20

Can you send a link for that lse thread please?

[scubadiverr] 19/2/2021 14:37

That's generally a good thing but try the thread on LSE as there's some quality posters

[whitehunter] 19/2/2021 14:11

High volume today looks like good sign

[basem1] 19/2/2021 14:03

Considering the amount of trades we have a very quiet bb here

[redtrend] 18/2/2021 13:36

THS presenting at virtual event this evening, 18:00hrs UK time:

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/register/event_details/318

[scubadiverr] 18/2/2021 13:28

Is the seller of the way? This looks like at long last it may explode

[martincc] 18/2/2021 10:32

Nearly all buys but looks like a seller is supplying a load of shares at around 129p I think Fidelity were last to notify reduction of shares, maybe them still selling down?