Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[bradders51] 27/6/2020 12:59

Investors Chronicle article. May 22nd
Even a global pandemic couldn’t halt the skyrocketing palladium and rhodium price, which saw Tharisa’s (THS) earnings for the first five months make up for the shutdown in operations in March. The miner’s basket price – which covers its platinum, palladium and rhodium products all rolled up together – climbed by almost 60 per cent in the six months to 31 March, compared with the year before, to $1,612 (£1,320) per ounce (oz).
But big investment in reshaping the open pit at its Tharisa mine, and spending $20m on its mine fleet, kept a lid on cash flows – cash from operations dipped 8 per cent to $41m.
The run of spending is slowing after a year of mine renewal. Capital expenditure for the rest of 2020 is guided to be $21.9m, down from $47.7m in the first half, which should boost free cash flow in the back end of the year.
Chrome prices remain a drag on earnings, however, with a 15 per cent drop in the concentrate price to $138 per tonne (t) in the first half. The company said prices had already hit $155/t this week because of improving demand from the Chinese stainless steel market and destocking at ports in the country. Chrome provided 40 per cent of Tharisa’s revenue in the first half.
As we’ve noted in the past, the platinum group metal (PGM) price explosion came at a good time for Tharisa because it was deep in a high-capex phase. While this means the benefits of the record prices have not completely flowed through to investors, it does mean that the spending is out of the way and the mine is in better shape. Buy.

[mfhmfh] 26/5/2020 12:48

FIL Limited almost doubled their holding at a price of around 80p from 5.21% to 10.11% in February this year.

[mfhmfh] 26/5/2020 12:46

Capex in first half was $47.7m for re-shaping the open pit and investing in mining fleet. Whole organisation now in better shape.

Capex exepcted to be $21.9m for second half.

THS has not yet felt full effects of strong/increased PGM/chrome prices in first half due to Capex.

Should see the benefits of increased profit, cash flow, etc. in the 2nd half.

Competitor mines are struggling somewhat.

All IMHO.

[paleje] 26/5/2020 10:56

Decent interview mfh cheers. Others must have seen it, we're blue:)

H2 seems to me could be pleasing with continued price strengthening, lower expenditure and fuel and fx working in our favour.

[paleje] 21/5/2020 13:34

Thanks mfh we've got something to look forward to then.

Not too far forward hopefully.

[mfhmfh] 21/5/2020 10:24

Peel Hunt today reiterates buy rating with 155p target price.

[paleje] 21/5/2020 08:07

What a palaver to get information.

Seems to me they're doing ok, profits up with pgms remaining strong and chrome improving. Nothing astounding but nothing nasty either imo.

From the (massive) report:-

Chrome market update
The reporting period was defined by weak chrome prices. As at the end of 2019 there was an overhang of ferrochrome inventory particularly,
resulting from the excess of imports into China during Q2 FY2019. The market contracted at the end of 2019 when China responded to
COVID-19, in part, by shuttering production. This was exacerbated by Spring Festival late in January 2020 owing to seasonally adjusted
production and demand cuts. This coupled with supply chain disruptions elevated port inventories of chrome ore in China which peaked
towards the end of April 2020 at over 4.2Mt. From March 2020 there was a de-stocking of stainless steel in China spurring price. Similarly
the resumption of normal production levels of stainless steel in China has been met with a corresponding demand for ferrochrome and
consequently chrome ore. The domestic price of ferrochrome has increased by RMB250/ per tonne and chrome ore by 25% or RMB 0.04/
dmtu post the reporting period. At the time of writing the report seaborne prices rebounded to above US$155/t CIF main ports China. Supply
from South Africa has dwarfed demand and will remain interrupted for some time. The price of chrome is expected to have support at higher
levels for the remainder of the financial year.
PGM market update
Fundamentals for the platinum group metals remain robust. Tharisa believes that while demand has slowed, particular in autocatalysts as
they are directly linked to economic activity and manufacturing supply chains, supply will remain interrupted for longer than anticipated as
mines, in particular in South Africa, deal with complex recommencement of operations and COVID-19 related disruptions.
Data from Johnson Matthey sees an interesting dynamic, where autocatalyst demand is expected to fall by at least 15% to 20%, while in
parallel PGMs supply will slow by more than 20%, as mines shut and network disruptions lead to a slowing in recyclable material coming
back to the market. SFA Oxford have stated that mine closures are set to cut South African supply by more than 20% this year.
The World Platinum Investment Council meanwhile said in its most recent update that while COVID-19 naturally has a negative effect on
the demand for platinum, the latest result for Q1 CY2020 demand was less impacted than expected, maintaining a positive outlook for the
remainder of the year.
Tharisa believes in the unique properties of PGMs, which will mean the long-term demand for the metals remain healthy, coupled with
reduced and disciplined producer supply of new ounces into the market, will underpin the balance and ensure prices remain strong for the
next 24 months at least. Delays in projects, together with tighter capital markets for new developments from proposed new entrants, will
mean new supply will be delay

[mfhmfh] 20/5/2020 12:33

let's see what tomorrow brings

[paleje] 10/4/2020 16:36

It was a good update but I think just too much reading when there's so much simpler stuff happening elsewhere. That's often when you can pick up a bargain not a spike.

[the skipper] 09/4/2020 21:24

That was a very late reaction to this morning’s RNS, but no complaints as it gave me the opportunity to double up. Maybe a fund manager or HNWI wanted to question management prior to piling in...

[the skipper] 26/3/2020 23:57

With the whole of South Africa now in lock down there's only one way that PGM prices can go when the world gets back to work, unless Russian producers can make up the shortfall. Chinese automakers already back in production, Italy perhaps to follow in a few weeks, Detroit still open for business - so plenty of product still being consumed.

Suffice to say that with several of my other stocks now moving up sharply I hope to be able to double up here soon too as the drop seems to be ridiculously overdone.

[rougepierre] 24/3/2020 11:29

Buy buy buy...

Sales priced in dollars...costs in ZAR...

Palladium up 22% in 24 hours and 9% in one hour....

THS hasn't moved...plenty of cash...just doubled up...average 44p...

[the skipper] 13/3/2020 13:41

For some reason Advfn won’t let me post the link but here’s the recent article:

Tharisa’s PGM basket price is running at nearly US$2,300 per ounce, and that could lead to a significant re-rating

For those that missed the recent uplift in palladium and Platinum group metals, what’s an easy way in?

One company offers significant exposure, and yet has remained somewhat under the radar.

Until now.

“We have the highest PGM basket price on record and very buoyant rhodium and palladium prices,” says Phoevos Pouroulis, chief executive of Tharisa PLC (LON:THS).

As yet, the market hasn’t really woken up to the ramifications of all this, and even before the bout of coronavirus selling, Tharisa’s share price was trading at a steep discount to broker targets.

But it won’t be long before the numbers start to do plenty of talking, because Tharisa’s production of high-flying palladium and rhodium represent a significant portion of output from its South African operations.

“Rhodium represents approximately 10% of our production and palladium 16%,” says Pouroulis.

“What that means is that we are getting nearly US$2,300 per platinum group metal ounce.”

And that in turn flies in the face of an industry famously in the doldrums because of historically weak platinum prices. In fact, platinum has been relatively stable too for a few months, so all in all the current pricing environment adds up to what Pouroulis expects to be “a significant kick to the bottom line.”

Already most of the mid-tier platinum group metals producers have started to re-rate but, perhaps because of the company’s exposure to chrome, Tharisa has lagged.

“We’re classified more in the chrome space, which is under pressure,” says Pouroulis.

“We are a co-producer, so we can’t selectively mine either metal, but our low-cost model that we have still allows us to generate a margin on the chrome and a huge one on the platinum group metals.”

Allowing for a strong recovery after the coronavirus blip, stainless steel demand looks set to stay strong, and Pouroulis says he’s “optimistic221; around the fundamentals for stainless steel.

But it’s in the platinum group metals that the immediate gains will be made.

“Tharisa is a big beneficiary of the present PGM basket price,” says broker Peel Hunt.

“We would highlight if present spot prices are sustained through the balance of 2020, then the drop through from the higher basket price would more than double our base case EBITDA of US$88mln.”

On the current model, the broker is using US$1,400 per ounce as a base case basket price, but with Tharisa likely to pull in upwards of US$2,100, as Pouroulis thinks it will, then the upside is pretty clear.

On that basis Peel Hunt sets a 165p target for Tharisa, not too far off treble the current price.

What may hold Tharisa back is the perception that it’s a chrome company not a PGM company, and that lower margin chrome is the dominant force in the business model.

But, says Pouroulis, that’s not really true.

Yes, last year the balance in terms of revenues and costs was broadly even, with a split 55:45 in favour of PGMs. But this year, with the favourable pricing, the split moves much more in favour of PGMs to 70:30. And with that balance in mind, it’s hard to argue that Tharisa is anything other than a platinum group metals producer.

This year the company is forecast to produce between 155,000 ounces and 165,000 ounces of platinum group metals, of which around 10% or 16,000 ounces will be rhodium, and around 16%, or approximately 20,000 ounces will be palladium.

On the chrome side, meanwhile, the company is set to turn out between 1.45mln tonnes and 1.55mln tonnes of chrome concentrate, of which around 25% will be premium grade, known as chemical and foundry grade chrome

So, all in all, if you thought you’d missed the PGM rally think again. Tharisa is poised for an upward bound, with the fundamentals all in its favour.

Tharisa PGM Basket Price, as at 10 March 2020

Platinum US$871.50

Palladium US$2 460.50

Rhodium US$13 290.00

Gold US$1 674.55

Ruthenium US$248.00

Iridium US$1,500.00

Total USD US$2,272.28

Total ZAR R36 116.72

[the skipper] 13/3/2020 13:33

It’s all about the PGMs basket price. Compared to that chrome is just a sideshow.

[whitehunter] 13/3/2020 10:52

But they'll be nursing heavy losses like most of the long holders like myself unfortunately. Virus unlikely to do much good for Chrome prices, which I think is key to this moving positively.

[the skipper] 13/3/2020 09:57

Looks like the seller has gone now, so I am starting to trickle money in here. Fidelity doubling its position tells its own story.

[paleje] 25/2/2020 14:15

Palladium hitting new highs. Unlike our sp:)

[paleje] 24/2/2020 14:27

Doubt if it's coronavirus in this case, a poster on LSE who uses a broker said a determined seller has been chipping away at the share price so be patient will clear at some point.

[ukgeorge] 24/2/2020 12:22

where is support?....

Glad I only have a few. Coronavirus causing havoc.

[ukgeorge] 21/2/2020 10:22

okay thanks

[paleje] 21/2/2020 10:07

Today's Times - Tempus - Tharisa Buy



Palladium
If the glister comes off gold it could give palladium an even greater chance to shine. The value of the metal has raced to record highs over the past 18 months but in its case there are probably more rational reasons to expect its popularity to continue.
Palladium is one of six metals in the platinum group, which includes rhodium and osmium. The metal is highly sought after for its use in catalytic converters and hybrid vehicles. It is also in short supply. With Russia and South Africa the main sources, 80 per cent of mined palladium ends up in the converters, where it reduces harmful emissions from petrol and diesel-powered internal combustion engines.
As vehicle emissions legislation, particularly in Europe and China, becomes more stringent, demand for these converters has risen dramatically. With palladium also featuring in hybrid vehicles — part of the hoped-for transition to all-electric cars — there seems little chance that the desire for it will reduce substantially.
Although this has been the driving force propelling palladium prices higher, the metal is also used in jewellery and electronics, adding to its attractiveness.
Incidentally, and adding to its rarity value, unlike gold, there are limited ways of taking exposure to palladium. Among listed companies, the only pure-play palladium producer of size is Tharisa, which owns the eponymous mine in South Africa, although there is also Sylvania Platinum, listed on Aim, which produces all six of the platinum group metals.
The rising cost of palladium has become a serious concern for car manufacturers, and analysts have speculated that they might adopt a cheaper material — platinum, for example. Although slowing sales mean that profits are under pressure, the cost of moving from one metal to another is high, and likely to act as an impediment. In the background is also Norilsk, the Russian mining and metals producer that is considering investing in new palladium mines to release more of the commodity on to the market, so dampening prices and encouraging carmakers not to switch.
Unlike gold, however, the pros of palladium outweigh the cons.
Advice Buy