Tethys Share Discussion Threads

[hguess16] 07/9/2018 08:02

TI,
calm down !.
Be patient and let's see if these guys follow through with the exercise of the warrants before 6 Oct as noted on the news release.
The last time round, the share price never reached 3.1 cents for the Kumars' to exercise the warrants as all hell broke loose with Olisol waging war on Tethys.
Let's see if Olisol reacts to this new deal.
So far they have kept "mum" and it makes me wonder if they are still negotiating with
the NI and possibly PAM and Medgat Kumar.
Hence the postponement of the exercise from 31 Aug to 5 Oct.

[casual47] 07/9/2018 07:59

TI, how do you think TPL got to where it got? Do you think people will now be nice and everything will be OK?

[hguess16] 06/9/2018 21:44

That is the key !. NI has to exercise !.
If they fail to exercise the warrants by 5 Oct, it would be curtains !.

[casual47] 06/9/2018 21:28

I agree that if they take up their warrants something interesting may be happening.

My bet is that they won't. Which probably means the new NI are just like the old NI.

[hguess16] 06/9/2018 21:22

I can only say this:
The loss of confidence in Tethys was increased significantly by the dispute with Olisol and this together with the associated time and cost of litigation and the disruption caused by Olisol resulted in poor decisions by the Board and the lack of focus on the real objective to drill more wells to increase output.
The consequences were near fatal !.
When Ken May resigned, his efforts to drill more wells using Great Wall stopped as seen by the poor output results in the financial reports.
He promised an increase to 2500 boepd, but we see only about 740 boepd.
Any sensible person would see that the answer lies in increasing output to 6000 boepd,
Far more money needs to be spent on drilling more wells.
I could be wrong here, but I would not commit to spend $2.5m unless I am willing to
also commit to drilling more wells with more funds.


I would like to see the outcome of the warrants exercise by 5 Oct, before making any
commitment.

[casual47] 06/9/2018 20:50

The previous NI saw value also, yet here we are with Tethys teetering on bankruptcy.

I think you are filling out rather huge gaps.

[hguess16] 06/9/2018 20:42

Might I add, The local NI, whoever they are, see some value in Tethys despite the reluctance of Wells to put more real money into drilling more wells rather than trying to keep the sinking oil ship afloat.
Remember the proven reserves in the ground exceed the debts owed to creditors.
Take a look at Nostrum which has raised $1 billion to fund operations.

[hguess16] 06/9/2018 20:37

Casual,
I can only interpret from published info based on what I have seen occur during the last 3 years and, particularly since Wells assumed control using his major share in order to rule the roost and protect PAM.
IMO, The Kumars came in promising a purchase and distribution, but then Winston Soosaipillai based in London with his UK Mktg/distribution network got cold feet amid the bad publicity, leaving Medgat to continue with the relationship in KZ.
The new deal with "apparently" KazTransgas involvement, identified by Mojohead and you, seems viable as KazTransgas is already an exclusive customer of Tethys and Olisol has gone all quiet on this proposed deal as they have got form with KazTransgas in the past.
Wells seems to be willing to let the new investors assume majority voting and if you add Kumar and Olisol, PAM becomes a minor !.
Earlier, Wells was willing to accept Olisol as the major investor but the IA failed
when Olisol changed the deal requesting the use of the W/C.
I think Wells realises that the locals are smarter ( albeit a lot late !) and now realises that it is better to work with them.
Wells missed an opportunity afforded by Nostrum earlier.
Matters went from bad to worse and we have seen the destruction caused by the bad decisions and the consequent collapse of the share price
I am hoping that Wells has learned a lesson, the hard way, and realises that this is
the only and final way out for him and PAM.
The dilution of equity and delisting has been a disaster for all of us.
I hope the Locals in KZ have the sense to drill more wells to increase output to levels that would provide export prices.
You decide whether this summary makes sense !.

[casual47] 06/9/2018 19:59

Hguess, you may be right but we are in *exactly* the same scenario we were when the last set of "new investors" joined.

People were full of hope then that because they were involved with oil and specifically export of oil that they would help. And while they may have helped in some ways, they didn't help turn the company around.

Apart from hope or belief, do you have any, *any* reason to believe this time is different?

At this stage speculation or just being hopeful really doesn't help, especially if some people are genuinely thinking about averaging down....(!)

[hguess16] 06/9/2018 19:18

As I mentioned earlier, Abay Amirkhanov will be representing both investors. Who is pulling the strings for both investors using AA on the Tethys Board ?.
Wonder why the warrants exercise has been extended to Oct 5.
I wonder if we will be informed "officially" as to who really pulls the strings !.

[hguess16] 06/9/2018 18:33

Sounds like Abay A is a Rep fronting for KazTransgas. Also the split between two parties is perhaps to avoid one party having 20% once the warrants are taken up.

[casual47] 06/9/2018 18:25

"Inform-System LLP has information about all consumers of public services in the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan. We serve up to 2 million customers. Our company has been in the billing services market for more than 15 years. "

Yep...clearly an outstanding partner to have when you are trying to drill wells and achieve export.

[temporarily insane] 06/9/2018 18:07

Completion of placements...

[hguess16] 06/9/2018 10:58

I know, but if you look at Nostrum, Mayfair with 26% is controlled indirectly by the
KZ Govt and they managed to get Frank Monstrey to reduce his holding and align his interests with the authorities.
So this has been done before !

[casual47] 06/9/2018 09:37

It would be strange for a government owned company to secretively take a 20% stake in a public, Canadian listed company.

I suppose anything goes in Kaz but it would be shocking behaviour.

[hguess16] 06/9/2018 09:31

Fair enough !.
If you are correct about KZTransGas, I am hoping that Abay Amirkanov is working under instructions from KazTransgas, who will ensure that their 20% stake for the "peanuts" of $2.5m will at least bring them a return of at least 100% in three years.

In simple terms, $2.5m at 20% equates to a total MV of $12.5m.
100% MV in 3 years equals $25m
At 635m shares the price per share would be US$ 4 cents compared to 1 cent now.

While I accept that the present Board have been naïve and incompetent, I am hoping that KZTransgas, the new major investor, being based in KZ, instead of in Phoenix and London, are better placed in managing Tethys more effectively.
It is in the interest of KazTransgas to make something of this sinking O&G ship ! .

I would not be surprised if KazTransgas acquire Tethys in the not too distant future
and add it to its existing KZ family of investments.


Wishful thinking ?. I hope not !.

[casual47] 06/9/2018 08:10

Some realism needed here....If you have a career in the O&G industry in Kaz it's almost inevitable that at some point you end up working for one of the state owned companies.

Just because this guy worked for a year or two for KTGA back in 2015/2016 doesn't mean he has "links" beyond what most ex-workers have with a former company.

It can't be repeated enough, this is a failing company at risk of administration. Even a turnaround may come at gigantic dilution.

[hguess16] 06/9/2018 08:05

I wonder if the interim accounts have been brought up to date in preparation for the release of news on the new investors? .
Since Mojohead and Casual have identified the NI as likely to be linked to KTRANSGAS, an existing exclusive buyer of TAG gas, it would be interesting to see if the Board confirms this as fact !.
It would also be of interest to learn how the Board has or intends to resolve the dispute with Olisol! .
In addition, an indication of how the Board intends to fund the drilling of
gas and oil wells would be of value to shareholders instead of the bland promise to drill two more wells as shown in the interim financial report.
This measly effort is not enough for Tethys to obtain world prices as it needs 6000 boepd to achieve this objective.

[hguess16] 06/9/2018 06:13

The main aim is to increase output from 700 boepd (pathetic) to at least 2500 boepd as promised with the drilling programme by Great Wall.
To get world prices, output has to be increased to 6000 boepd.
The current BOD has failed !.
Hopefully the new investor will provide knowledge and experience in running Tethys
more effectively.

[temporarily insane] 05/9/2018 23:08

Is it misguided if the investor turns out to be the gentleman that Casual47 and you were writing about in the previous discussions and carries on turning the company around.

The main aim is to get world prices.

[hguess16] 05/9/2018 21:50

The interim results for both quarters being up to date in line with the TSX requirements, seem to be a line drawn in the sand, hopefully, with a view to a fresh start.
The poor financial results, to date, reveal that the performance of the BOD has been extremely disappointing, as it has failed to focus on its primary objective to increase output and obtain better pricing.

It is hoped that BOD have learned lessons from the serious mistakes made in underestimating its KZ rival and continuing with expensive and unproductive legal disputes, which resulted in the collapse of the share price and delisting.

The giving away of Tethys shares by the Board for " peanuts" in order to keep Tethys from sinking, has been a misguided, destructive " restructure" strategy.

[temporarily insane] 05/9/2018 20:11

Interim results out on Sedar......

[neilyb675] 05/9/2018 18:54

MmmmmM. Mmmmmmmmmm