Tesco Share Discussion Threads

[tuftymatt] 20/9/2022 20:27

The markets hate uncertainty and until the FED and BOE speak this week, and maybe Friday's mini budget too, we are stuck down I think.

Then there could be a general uplift, another bear market rally??, which will help TSCO too. 270ish a month ago and while I think that's a bit steep, a bounce back to north of 250 could happen in the next few weeks or so.

[konradpuss] 20/9/2022 20:01

What does 'Mr Market' think he knows about the short term future of the trading at Tesco?

Maybe there has been a mass exodus to Aldi/Lidl? If so there would have been a profits warning.

It's getting into private equity territory at this share price - it might well go lower.

[konradpuss] 16/9/2022 19:14

A very big volume today with almost no movement in the share price.

With the pound way down, do not write off a bid although unlikely after the bloody nose the private equity mob are getting over at Morrisons.

[helen troy] 16/9/2022 08:48

And me una and tufty

[tuftymatt] 16/9/2022 08:21

Yeah me too una.
Will add / average down for the long term too.

[unastubbs] 16/9/2022 06:11

bloomin' dismal performance here, stock market showing no mercy to a decent company. assuming the worst. che sera sera. been reading about the dividend policy from the interim update in October last year

"The interim dividend has been set at 3.20 pence per ordinary share, in line with the prior year and aligned to our policy of setting the interim dividend at 35% of the prior year full-year dividend. The interim dividend was approved by the Board of Directors on 5 October 2021. It is our intention to pay a progressive dividend going forward - i.e. we will aim to grow the dividend per share each year, broadly targeting a pay-out of around 50% of earnings."

so this time round it should be 35% of (7.7p+3.2p) = c.3.8p an 18% uplift on last year. silver lining at this tough time. happy to hold and take the income.

[loganair] 15/9/2022 16:39

Former Lidl UK boss Ronny Gottschlich has predicted that German retailers Aldi and Lidl combined will overtake Tesco – currently the UK’s largest supermarket – within the next five years.

Gottschlich, who ran Lidl’s British operation for six years until 2016, said that between them, Aldi and Lidl would “overtake Tesco by 2027 at the latest”. He also believes they will “grow their combined market share – currently at 16% – to 20% within the next year and a half.”

Between them, Lidl and Aldi have gained £2.3 billion of British grocery sales over the past year, representing a significant shift in spending towards the relative newcomers to the UK market.

As market leader, Tesco currently has 26.9% of the UK market share, while the next largest, Sainsbury’s, has 14.8% of the sector, placing the discounters’ combined efforts firmly in second spot.

He pointed out that Lidl’s owners, the Schwarz family, make a margin of just 2% – worth a total of £2.4 billion a year. “As a family you cannot spend that amount of money”, he said.

[loganair] 15/9/2022 13:30

John Lewis Partnership reported a loss for the first half of the year and warned that the outlook for the rest of 2022 was highly uncertain due to the impact of the cost of living crisis on discretionary spending.

The employee-owned group runs John Lewis department stores and the upmarket Waitrose supermarket chain.

Today it logged a loss before tax and exceptional items of £92m in the six months to July 30.

It said that while department store sales were up 3% on a like-for-like basis to £2.1 billion, Waitrose sales dropped 5% to £3.6 billion.

[unastubbs] 14/9/2022 09:45

of course i'm not sure! I think the net interest margin improvement will negate the bad loan risks. UK focussed bank shares aren't buckled as they were in 2020, I don't see Tseco Bank as being any different. still looking forward to October :)

[loganair] 14/9/2022 09:27

Banking is the worse place to be when the economy blows up and credit freezes over.

[konradpuss] 14/9/2022 08:59

Una, are you sure? I think the bank might have quite a few 'dodgy' credit card loans going forward.

[johnwise] 14/9/2022 08:34

VIDEO

Jim Davidson - Farewell to Her Majesty

[johnwise] 14/9/2022 07:26

Biden: Spending Hundreds of Billions in Fed-Printed Money Cause of Inflation

FOX Business host Larry Kudlow weighs in on the latest inflation numbers on 'Kudlow.

Video



The Donald Trump Booming Economy

VIDEO

[johnwise] 14/9/2022 07:25

European markets drop after US inflation data shakes traders

[unastubbs] 14/9/2022 07:14

I also think the contribution from Tesco Bank should not be underestimated at this time. Looking forward to the trading update in October.

[konradpuss] 14/9/2022 06:51

Logan, you might well be 'on the money'.

I personally think that Tesco will do a little better than your forecast due to their buying power.

[loganair] 13/9/2022 21:45

Around 5 years ago I posted I thought Aldi/Lidl combined market share is likely to top out at around 22% with Lidl also over taking Morrison to becoming No:5 in the UK with a possibility that Aldi may also over take ASDA.

At the time my thoughts were and still are Morrison's will continue to fall to circa 8.0%/8.5%, ASDA 13.0%/13.5%, Sainsbury 14% and Tesco at around 25.0%/25.5%, with Aldi topping at 13.5% and Lidl around 9%.

[konradpuss] 13/9/2022 21:30

Logan, what you don't comment on is the overall size of the market.

I also think you are comparing apples and pears! Let's wait until June 2023.

By the way, I do think Aldi and Lidl market share has a ceiling. Where that will be, who knows.

[loganair] 13/9/2022 21:11

Tesco June 2021 was 27.3% today its 26.9% so they too have been slowly losing market share to the German discounters, however at a slower rate then Sainsbury, Asda and especially Morrison.

It seems to me reasonable to say Morrisons are losing market share at a greater rate than the other 3 as they tend to have stores in the less affluent areas of the country.

[konradpuss] 13/9/2022 20:46

Logan, the takeaway from the Kantar figures is that over the last year ASDA, Morrisons and Sainsbury, out of the big four, have lost market share big time where as Tesco have increased very slightly.

The big winners (at what cost?) are ALDI and LIDL.

[helen troy] 13/9/2022 15:50

I reckon some big boys are performing trading ploys between options and shares on the stock market and making healthy gains in day trading. But what do I know?

[blackhorse23] 13/9/2022 14:42

Another electronic retailer CURY (LSE) reinstate dividend & 75 m pounds share buy back scheme because of robust trading performance , EXCELLENT GROWTH

[loganair] 13/9/2022 14:07

How has market share changed for the various supermarkets over the past year and 2 months?

........June 2021.June 2022.......July.....Aug.....Sept

Tesco.....27.3% - 27.4% : +0.1%...27.1%...26.9%...26.9%
Sainsbury 15.7% - 14.8% : -0.9%...14.9%...14.8%...14.6%
Asda......14.6% - 13.8% : -0.8%...13.7%...13.9%...14.1%
Morrison..10.4% - *9.5% : -0.9%...*9.4%...*9.3%...*9.1%
Aldi.......7.4% - *9.0% : +1.6%...*9.1%...*9.1%...*9.3%
Lidl.......5.9% - *6.9% : +1.0%...*7.0%...*7.0%...*7.1%
Coop.......6.0% - *6.1% : +0.1%...*6.3%...*6.5%...*6.5%
Waitrose...5.0% - *4.9% : -0.1%...*4.6%...*4.6%...*4.7%
Iceland....2.5% - *2.3% : -0.2%...*2.3%...*2.3%...*2.4%
Ocado......1.7% - *1.7% : 0000%...*1.8%...*1.8%...*1.7%

As can be seen Aldi has definitely over taken Morrison to be the UK's 4th biggest supermarket.

Over just 1 month the combined market share of Aldi/Lidl has increased by 0.3% to 16.4%.

[geckotheglorious] 13/9/2022 12:41

Loganair

Look at the money printing, especially since 90s!

And consider the soaring population since Queen Victoria.

And the fact UK fought two World Wars!

There's your inflation.

Smaller populous, fewer Nimbys, and a generally better educated, harder working population under Queen Victoria compared to now.

That's why they we have so many more Civil Servants..many of whom are useless.

[philanderer] 13/9/2022 12:38

Alliance News

Grocery price inflation reached over 12% over the past four weeks ending September 4, with the average household's annual grocery bill now set to soar to GBP5,181 if consumers were to buy the same products as they did last year, Kantar said.

As prices climb, consumers have turned to German discounts Aldi and Lidl. Sales at Aldi rose 19% in the 12 period to September 5, while Lidl's sales jumped 21%.

Shares in London-listed supermarket chains Tesco and J Sainsbury, which lost further UK market share, were down 2.5% and 1.6% respectively at midday.