Not necessarily someone in the know. Could be herding. People thinking someone is in the know and bailing out. Self reenforcing. We'll soon see. |
Fear the shine has gone from Shinez. |
Seems someone in the know has got upfront information regarding Mondays update to the market. Appears that we are going to see a profit warning by the reaction to Friday's share plunge. Oh well, nothing I can do until Monday morning now. Good luck all. I think we will be needing it! |
Well there’s my answer! |
My reading of IHT implications is that :
1. pension relief gone so so no point in leaving pot to grand children. Might as well spend it in preference to ISAs.
2. BPR on Aim reduced to mean that first £1m of qualifying Aim shares held for 2 years at death will pat 20% IHT still worth holding if Nil rate band (up to £1m for a couple)is used up OR gifts made have not passed 7 years.
All in all a massive raid on the assets of people stuck with a modest family home now worth £1m. still need somewhere to live with a spare room for family to visit, too old to move, too expensive to down size, still need £1m capital to provide a 5% above inflation income.
Soon we will all be chucking it in and living off the state. |
Nervousness before results? |
My reading of this is that the £1million will apply only to family businesses, not to AIM shares hence the 'in all circumstances'. Presumably the Finance Bill in due course will clarify. |
But I think the first £ million of AIM assets will be excluded from IHT. Can anyone clarify?
"The government will reform agricultural property relief and business property relief from April 2026. In addition to existing nil-rate bands and exemptions, the 100% rate of relief will continue for the first £1 million of combined agricultural and business assets to help protect family farms and businesses, and will be 50% thereafter. The government will also reduce the rate of business property relief to 50% in all circumstances for shares designated as “not listed” on the markets of a recognised stock exchange, such as AIM. " |
Not quite a damp squib:
"The government will also reduce the rate of business property relief to 50% in all circumstances for shares designated as “not listed” on the markets of a recognised stock exchange, such as AIM. This will affect around 0.3% of estates each year." |
Not specifically AFAICS, it's just that the nightmare scenario re AIM and inheritance tax has turned out to be a completely damp squib. So those who exited are now buying back in (traders will also be doing rather well). |
Did I miss something in the budget that would have a positive effect here? |
 From Master Investor last night.....
"Team Internet Group (LON:TIG) – Just what will the Q3 results show?
On Monday 11th November Michael Riedl and Billy Green will reveal the Third Quarter trading results for this global internet company.
To date I have always liked the fact that it generates recurring revenues from creating meaningful and successful connections: businesses to domains, brands to consumers, publishers to advertisers – but of late its shares have been totally boring and only going downhill.
The only real buyers of the group’s shares have been Director Max Royde on behalf of his Kestrel Partners clients, as well as the company itself.
Royde is a partner of, and holds a beneficial interest in, Kestrel, and is also a shareholder in Kestrel Opportunities and is therefore deemed to have a beneficial interest in Kestrel Opportunities' entire legal holding in the company.
Kestrel Opportunities holds (and consequently he is deemed to have a beneficial interest in) 17,926,535 Shares in the company, and other clients of Kestrel, in which Mr Royde has no beneficial interest hold 49,058,779 shares in the company.
Kestrel indirectly controls 66,985,314 (25.96%) shares.
The group itself is still in a large share buyback programme and at the last count had some 15,762,033 shares held in treasury, out of the total issue of 273,500,000.
The Q3 figures could well show that the group is still moving ahead.
Analysts Bob Liao and Carl Smith at Zeus Capital currently have estimates out for the group to increase its turnover in the year to end-December to $943.0m ($836.9m) with adjusted pre-tax profits of $92.8m ($77.2m), with earnings of 27.4c (22.4c) and paying a 2.2p (2.0p) dividend per share.
For the coming 2025 year they estimate $1,032.4m revenues, $102.6m profits, 30.3c earnings and a dividend of 2.4p per share.
The bigger returns can be hoped for in 2026, with the analysts going for $1,095.5m revenues, a much better margin $120.1m profit, with 35.4c per share earnings but still paying a measly 2.6p dividend.
On the basis of those estimates, medium-term value investors should be piling into Team Internet shares and just forget about them until they double in price.
At the beginning of August this year the group’s shares hit 207.50p, since when they have performed like an absolute dog, falling away quite steeply, with, as I stated earlier, just the company and Kestrel buying the stock.
They closed last night at only 126p, so I am now asking – isn’t this the time to be buying in again?" |
Like all well capped decent AIM companies they are just getting hit ahead of the potential removal of Business Relief in the budget. All these companies are well owned by PIs who want the IHT exemption benefits of holding. If the relief is pulled these (all) these companies will go lower still.The government would be mad to pull it but sadly Labour are clowns. |
Well, at least they buy back cheap! |
Unless their are problems not yet known, this must be getting vulnerable as a TO target. |
Down approx 40% from year high. |
Maybe it’s the ruling from the EU about META and it’s use of personal data for marketing. |
Slightly better tone today. Mm's cashing in on dividend reinvestment orders perhaps?
Or maybe the reason will become clear next week. |
Yep, encouraging to see Kestrel buying more. Let's hope they carry on up until they hit 29.99%....
Zeus's most recent quarterly Software and Services review had some interesting mentions re TIG:
"Deep dive – privacy trends and third-party cookies Due to consumer, regulatory and technology trends, leading brands are increasingly prioritising consumer privacy in their corporate engagements and avoiding third-party data and cookies. These trends represent a rising challenge to advertisers and brands that are trying to their target products, services and digital advertising strategy to better engage consumers. As a result, we expect brands and advertisers to spend more on digital advertising and marketing software products that do not depend on third-party data.
Privacy-first advertising products include contextual advertising, native advertising, influencer and content marketing, cohort-based advertising, consent-based advertising, email marketing, and advertising with niche publishers. Software solutions that may see greater investments include customer data and engagement solutions that collect and leverage first-party data such as customer data platforms (CDP) and data integration and analytics solutions to enrich first-party data.
For example, the global contextual advertising market is expected to grow 13.3% CAGR 2023-2033 from $195bn in 2023 to $468bn by 2030, according to Grand View Research, and the CDP market is expected to grow 39.9% CAGR 2024-2028 from $7.4bn in 2024 to $28.2bn in 2028, according to MarketsAndMarkets. Well positioned digital advertising solutions companies include Silver Bullet, Team Internet, Pulsar Group, Dianomi and Nexxen. Well-positioned software solutions companies include SysGroup, DotDigital, Celebrus, Ebiquity and Eagle Eye."
"Despite the rapid growth and large potential of privacy-focused advertising and software solutions, the market is immature and highly fragmented into mostly point solution providers. As brands, agencies and enterprises invest more in these solutions, we believe vendors with broader solutions and scale will become better positioned. Therefore, we see the opportunity for market consolidation and believe Team Internet, SysGroup and Silver Bullet are well positioned."
"Impact on digital advertising – Growth markets and products
Without third-party cookies, advertisers will find it harder to gather data to personalise ads and measure the return on their ad spend (ROAS). To maintain the effectiveness of digital advertising, we believe advertisers will spend more on the digital advertising and marketing that does not depend on third party data. Such advertising products and respective companies providing these include:
Targeted content creation These companies attract niche audiences and have deep firstparty knowledge of their buying intentions. Some publishers may negotiate direct deals with advertisers in addition to using automated ad exchanges (me - here TIG are included as an exemplar)." |
Yes, Boadicea, good to see Kestrel continuing to buy especially with the Max Royde connection who will be well aware of TIG's current trading progress. In addition daily buybacks continue which all confirms to me that the business is trading successfully and ontrack "to meet market expectations for the full year". |
Kestrel continue to add. |
The fall looks like a market overreaction. I can't see this not making a profit, especially considering the way the competition is growingThere should be a price correction as they have actually made greater profit in the 6 months to previous. |
The fall since the interims is hard to justify imo, with TIG now trading on a current year P/E of only around 6.4.
Hopefully the newly announce buybacks will help to correct this to some extent.
Online marketing rates re visitor sessions did decline in H1, but TIG have repeatedly shown that they have a top-notch understanding of how their sector operates and how to maximise returns.
Even despite this the H1 EPS was up 14% to 11.07c. Growth in Q2 was stronger than in Q1. Most importantly:
"the Directors are confident that the Group will meet market expectations for the full year", which are for 27.4c consensus Zeus and Edison EPS.
This equates to 21.1p EPS at $1.30 - a P/E of 6.4. |
This really is out of favour with the market. Even if they are down 10% on expectations at fully year PE is still less than 6! I have bought back half the amount I sold at 185p, we shall see if I made the right call, so far not looking good. |
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