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CABP Cab Payments Holdings Plc

0.00 (0.00%)
Last Updated: 08:44:44
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Cab Payments Holdings Plc LSE:CABP London Ordinary Share GB00BMCYKB41 ORD 0.033 1/3P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 160.80 51,246 08:44:44
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
156.20 158.80
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Offices-holdng Companies,nec 120.32M 30.7M 0.1208 13.31 408.66M
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
08:44:57 O 10,000 158.4479 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
21/5/202412:22CAB Payments Holdings plc704

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Posted at 02/4/2024 13:29 by the millipede
Maybe. This has been a very good trade for me so far. But two big risks for longer term:

1/ Helios, which owns 45%, have said they want to sell out by 2025. This potentially creates a massive overhang, drag on the share price.

2/ Nigeria. We still don’t really know what the problems are that led to the previous announcement and share price falls. True there is a lot of money there. But also corruption, killing, and inability to exploit resources. Nigeria is not anyone’s go-to investment arena right now, or ever.

Posted at 20/3/2024 12:18 by london07
CABP reminds me of YU Group.

YU has done 8x in l8 months

Remember broker share price target in Aug 23, just several months ago was 585p
Posted at 07/2/2024 17:18 by london07
Darktrace on lower growth than CABP has a P/E of 50+.

If CABP had a similar P/E share price would be £8+ 🤯

On pure fundamentals, handsdown CABP is one of if not the lowest valued companies on FTSE

I'm sure this huge disconnect won't last much longer
Posted at 05/2/2024 06:41 by popit
The Seeking Alpha article shows the many huge risks of investing in CABP

1. There is a huge number of shares waiting to be sold by Helios which will continue to push the price down

2. The lock up period has now ended and this will create even more selling pressure

3. The huge risks due to their operating in corrupt countries in Africa

4. The huge risks from parallel markets in Africa

5. Competition for CABP has not even started yet. They are currently enjoyed early mover profits but that will end very soon when the competitors start to move in. The Seeking Alpha article uncovered over 50 competitors such as Western Union that will take away CABP future revenue and earnings.

And that is only a very few of the many risks that were mentioned in the article

And there are many excellent banks and other companies on lower valuations than CABP

The main UK banks are all trading on lower valuations than CABP for example and they are also paying high dividends

So not much reason to take all of these risks with CABP when you can get a lower valuation with Lloyds or Barclays and far less risk

Would not be very surprised to see CABP retest the lows at below 50p
Posted at 02/2/2024 07:47 by foreverbull
Https:// Payments: P/E Of 5 While Growing More Than 25% A YearStephen Read Concepto de cambio de divisas global, mundo de celebración manual con efecto línea virtual y dólar yuan yen euro y libra signo de libra esterlina.Dilok Klaisataporn/iStock via Getty ImagesCAB (Crown Agents Bank) Payments (OTCPK:CABPF) is an undervalued (P/E of 5), rapidly growing (25% YoY), and out of favor (down 72%) global money transfer business hiding within a 191-year-old UK bank.In 2016 CAB was acquired by the Africa-focused private equity firm Helios Investment Partners, and in 2019 they acquired Segovia's emerging market payments technology. This allowed CAB to combine Helios's frontier market expertise, Crown Agents Bank's relationships, and Segovia's payments technology and has resulted in CAB Payments growing 79%/yr from 2020-2022. In July they listed on the London Stock Exchange and today over 90% of their business is digital and scaling.The following writeup is my thoughts on an investment opportunity in what appears to be a healthy and fast-growing business at a left for dead price. I'll start by discussing the people, then move on to the product, market, economics, and finally touch on potential catalysts and risks.PeopleHelios Investment Partners is responsible for transforming CAB Payments into a digital and scalable cross-border FX and payments business. In the process they put together a well-connected and experienced team. The CEO is Bhairav Trivadi who was a successful founder and has 23 years of leadership experience across various leadership roles in the cross-border payments industry. Arguably his greatest success was creating PayQuik, a global remittance service which was later acquired by Citigroup. Bhairav is one of multiple high profile, and experienced leaders brought in to lead CAB. A few of the others are: Ann Cairns (Chair), Richard Hallett ('CFO'), Joseph Hurley ('CCO'), David Mountain ('CPO'), David Parker ('CIO'), Richo Strydom ('CTO'), Noel Harweth (Director). If these names don't mean anything to you maybe some of the team's experiences do: President of international markets at Mastercard, Global Treasurer at Citigroup, CEO of Royal Dutch Shell, Chairman of Deutsche Bank, Director at National Australia Bank, CEO of Travelodge, CFO of Barclays Africa and senior roles at institutions like RBS, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, United Nations Migration Agency, and Discover Financial. The experience, network and knowledge of this board and executive team is more in-kind to a $100 billion dollar large cap than a $250 million dollar micro-cap.AlignmentCAB's management team is aligned with shareholders as they IPO'd with a clean balance sheet, outside of a 7% minority interest, and the executive team is required to hold at least 200% of their base salaries in shares. There's also a long term stock incentive plan, and a proportion of the CEO and CFO's bonuses are paid in shares.ConvictionDemonstrating further conviction from the team, Richard Hallett CFO and Christopher Green CCO purchased 50,000 and 83,449 shares in the open market, with the latest purchase coming on 1/16/2024.ProductCAB Payments offers 4 cross-border payment products: Empower FX, Empower Payments, EMpower Connect, EMpower Pensions. Expansion plans include forwards, swaps, derivatives, fund repatriation, payment capability expansion, and digital currencies.AdvantagesCAB's payment and FX products have multiple advantages over the incumbent correspondence banking system that accounts for 80-85% of the cross-border payments occurring today. CAB products are scalable, transparent, fast, and cost less. To help put this into perspective, here's an example of using the status quo.Correspondence Banking SystemI need to fund a $100k investment in an accounting startup in Lagos, Nigeria. I go to my local bank (internet bank in my case) and request an international wire. I learn after I fill out the paperwork that my bank is unable to provide me the cost, nor a delivery time. Agreeing to pay an unknown amount is infuriating, but I sign the paperwork anyway and they start the transfer. First, my local bank takes 1% and sends $99k to another bank with international connections, who then exchanges it into Naira and sends on $96k equivalent to a large bank in Nigeria, who finally sends $95k to the local Lagos bank. The transfer touched four banks and they each took a cut.CAB's Payments GatewayThe average cost for correspondent banking transactions to emerging markets is ~5% and it takes multiple business days. If my local bank was tied into CAB, the process could have been transparent, the money delivered in hours, and the cost as little as 0.28%. CABs products are API programmable and can scale as quickly as their relationships with local banks (152), trading partners (291), and central banks (25) can grow.Customer FeedbackThe pain I felt using the current correspondent banking system was enough for me to seek out an alternative, and it appears that others feel similarly. CAB's product suite relieves this pain point and in response they have a 96% customer retention rate, and a net revenue retention rate of 150%. That's not a typo, after the first year of coding into CAB's products their average customer increases use 50%.CAB vs Fintech'sCAB has an advantage over the banking correspondence system but how do they fare against other cross-border fintechs? They created a beachhead in Africa and are expanding alongside their B2B customers' needs. In my competitor analysis I found more than 50 payment companies ranging from startups to legacy providers with a few of the more popular and established being: Mastercard Send (MA), Visa Direct (V), Flywire (FLYW), Lightspeed Commerce (LSPD), Shift4 Payments (FOUR), Wise (OTCPK:WPLCF), Remitly (RELY), and Western Union (WU). None of which are focused on B2B and hard to reach destinations. Thus CAB appears to gain their advantage, not through technology, but an expansive network in Africa and embedded banking trust.These combined with a B2B strategy is turning competition into partnerships, a couple examples being Santander (SAN) and Wise.CustomersCAB currently has 483 customers and is in the process of adding 167 more. The breakdown is diverse with 35% being non-banking financial institutions like foreign direct investments and tech based remittance businesses, 30% being international development organizations like the United Nations, 30% emerging market financial institutions, and 5% major market banks.MarketIf CAB's product has a durable advantage, they are operating in a market estimated to be $56 - $271 trillion dollars and expanding at 7.3% per year. CABs advantage lies in emerging markets, which has a market size of $2 trillion and CAB's current market share is estimated to be only 1-2%.EconomicsCab's business is profitable and displays the advantages of operating in a large and expanding market with an advantageous product. I estimate an 85% gross and 50% EBITDA margin in 2023 which is not far off from CAB management's estimated 55-60% EBITDA margin.If CAB earns an estimated £40 million in 2023, while trading at a fully diluted market cap of £216 million, their P/E comes out to 5.4. This accounts for a 25% tax rate and removing all one time IPO expenses. If we extrapolate this to 2024, their P/E will be a bit over 4 if they continue to grow at 20-25% (management is guiding 30-35%). HIT CapitalHIT CapitalValuation Catalysts:Re-RatingThe current valuation appears low and I expect CAB to re-rate higher if they continue to execute and diversify their geopolitical risk. To put their current price into perspective, it is 1/2 the valuation of regional banks (P/E 10), and 1/8 of their fintech payments brethren Wise (P/E of 45) and Shift4 Payments (P/E of 50). Flywire (FLYW) which is not perfect, but a business to business comparison has an expected 2024 P/E ratio of 123.How long can CAB continue to hold a P/E of 4-5 when their peers are valued 2-24x more.Growth & Share RepurchasesIf the re-rating does not occur through investor demand, CAB could buy back their own shares as they are estimated to cash flow more than £50M in 2024 while growing revenue 20-35%.Business Milestone CatalystsInvestment Grade RatingCAB's investment rating is improving. Fitch upgraded CAB from BB- to BB in October and if they continue down a similar path, their rating will continue to improve. CAB's management believes that achieving an investment-grade rating of BBB- or greater will provide an accelerated sales cycle and bring in more risk averse customers, aka banks.Regional Expansion - Netherlands and the USACAB is currently a regulated bank in the UK and they cannot actively solicit their services in Europe and the USA. They are currently applying for a regulatory license in the Netherlands and are working to obtain a US representative office license.Investor Community TrustCAB payments had a challenging start as a publicly traded company. They listed in London, where payment stocks stumbled (Finablr, WAG payments, and Network International). The underwriters overestimated investor appetite, resulting in selling pressures from the start. Barclays, the stabilizing agent, purchased almost 50% of the shares that traded in July, further contributing to the decline. In October, they reduced their growth outlook from 37% to 20% and their price declined another 75%.YahooYahooIt will take time for management to gain analysts and investors' trust and for them to understand the expected ups and downs of operating in emerging markets. As CAB grows and their regions expand, the ability to forecast earnings should also improve.RisksHelios ExitHelios owned 41% (after IPO) and, according to their last investors presentation, they plan to sell down their fund III positions by the end of 2025. This poses a short to medium-term risk but may turn into a catalyst thereafter. It is necessary for Helios to exit their position so CAB can apply for CHIPS (Clearing House Interbank Payments System) access and obtain $USD clearing capabilities.IPO Lock Up Just EndedThe 180-day IPO lock-up period ended on 1/6/2024, resulting in potential near term selling pressure.AfricaGeopolitical risks exist in serving hard-to-reach markets, and half of CAB's revenue was derived from Africa, specifically: Nigeria 31%, Central Africa 9% and West Africa 9%. These regions were behind the guidance reduction issued in Q3.Parallel MarketsCAB operates and profits from parallel markets, which are unregulated and inherently risky.USD ClearingCAB is dependent on third parties clearing 75% of their revenue that is denominated in $USD. They are unable to begin the process of connecting to CHIPs (Clearing House Interbank Payments System), which would give them USD clearing capabilities, until Helios sells down their position.CompetitionThis is an evolving and lucrative space. My initial competitor analysis uncovered more than 50 cross-border-related payment companies, ranging from startups to 173-year-old legacies like Western Union (WU).Reduced DemandProtectionism, de-globalization, tariffs, and decoupling of the world could reduce demand for cross-border FX and payments.Digital CurrenciesCAB is preparing to expand into cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, but they could fail and fall behind.Over The CounterCAB Payments trades on the London Stock Exchange and if you are unable to access LSE directly there is typically an added layer of risk, cost, and illiquidity when using an OTC stock ticker.Ending ThoughtsCAB is a high-growth, profitable business, with a product solving a painful problem in a trillion dollar market priced at 4x 2024 P/E. Something's got to give, or I missed something.My expected value for CAB Payments in 4 years is 2.8 - 7x their current price of ?84.Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
Posted at 22/1/2024 13:44 by london07
Check this out for share price manipulation.

Share price earlier at 86.80p
Bot kicks in, less than 20k sells in the space of 3 minutes, boom, all the way back down to 84.50p 🤣

Shut this casino down.
Cannot believe how the HF get away with it, just day light robbery.

Absolutely no point robbing banks anymore, you can just do it legally without ever being held to account. Better than crypto this.

Wrote into the FCA at the weekend, numerous other investors I know are doing the same. Its illegal what's happening on the LSE, esspecially the short and distort.

S&P 500 Average value is 20x PE. On the FTSE, must be like 4-5 if that. Look at BP, one of our biggest companies, PE is 4x, Chevron is 11x. This is just 1 example.

CABP should be 20x plus in the US easy with the growth rate and MOAT, probably on 5-6. What is the point.

No wonder many investors and companies are fleeing to the US and elsewhere.
Posted at 15/1/2024 19:02 by popit
Everyone knows that the results tomorrow will be good as they have already said that there will be 17% growth

The main problem with CABP is that there is no moat to their business model and it is just one of many thousands of Fintech companies that basically do the same thing of transfer money and payments on an app

Any excess profits that CABP may be making at present will be very easily eroded away in future years by new entrants to the markets where CABP operates

At the end of the day CABP is just a bank app and it is on a forecast PE of about 10

When you consider that Lloyds and Barclays are on a forecast PE of about 5 it is not difficult to see that it would be wise to take any profits on CABP before the market inevitably decides that CABP is very overvalued in comparison to these other banks

The other main problem with CABP is that it is very dependent for its profits on very high risk countries in Africa such as Nigeria

Nigeria is not exactly known for successful businesses but it is well known for very high levels of business fraud and corruption

This is not a successful long term business model

Take any profits and avoid
Posted at 15/1/2024 14:25 by london07
Revenue Growth 37%
Share Price Target 585p

Revenue Growth 20% minimum
Share Price 92p

What a corrupt and stupid market.

Expecting a BIG BIG gap up.
Posted at 12/12/2023 08:54 by francoismyname
Think we may pop today . Seems primed.

Remember first day of trading at £3.35 only months ago. 55p seems ridiculous now and well overdone.


Cab Payments (LON: CABP) has disappointed its IPO investors by sliding 10% on its conditional debut. The full debut of the stock is set to occur on 11 July. The payments and forex giant decided to IPO in effort to boost UK capital markets.

The sell-off on the first day comes as no surprise as the UK markets are facing headwinds from the rising inflation. The benchmark FTSE 100 index fell to its fresh 3-month lows after sliding 25 points in the last trading session of the week.

Cab Payments Raise £335M In IPO

As per the latest news, the holding company of Crown Agents Bank has raised £335 million pounds ($426M) in its IPO. The past few IPOs in the UK have been very disappointing. Consequently, many new tech firms are opting to get listed in the US.

Cab Payments IPO was priced at 335p. However, the share plummeted 10% on the very first day. This drop in the Cab Payments share price can be attributed to the track record of the recent UK IPOs as well as the current market conditions. The benchmark FTSE 100 index hit its lowest level since March 20 today.

Cab Payments Share Price Rebounds 2.89%

After a disappointing first trading session, LON: CABP turned green on Friday. Till press time, the shares were changing hands at 311.7p, which is 2.89% higher than yesterday’s closing price. The technical analysis of such a new listing is not possible due to no price history.
Posted at 30/10/2023 08:34 by masurenguy
What a disaster ! Fortunately I've never been invested here preferring alternative money transfer and processing companies focused on the UK and Europe. If there is to be a turnaround here they will need to upgrade management credibility by making some key changes. At this price it goes on my watchlist to see if it can recover from such a low valuation.

RC Brown fund manager Oliver Brown is deeply unhappy over the collapse of CAB Payments’ share price, after investing in the fintech firm at this year’s flotation. Brown managed to escape the full catastrophe of the stock’s 76% share price drop this week, however. Having held the company as a 0.8% position in the £13m MFM UK Primary Opportunities strategy, he sold the position last month. That saw him bail out at £2 a share, well below the issue price of £3.35 but nowhere near as severe as CAB Payment’s current price of 51p.

Larger shareholders and prominent fund firms including BlackRock, Fidelity Management & Research (FMR) and Amati are expected to have borne heavier losses.
‘The situation absolutely stinks. This stock has been hammered more than anything I’ve ever seen on the FTSE 250,’ Brown told Citywire. ‘The business was growing very quickly. Revenue went from £34m in 2020 to over £100m in 2022. That was the attraction of the IPO [initial public offer], even if we knew this huge level of growth couldn’t continue.’ He added that the company had given guidance of 40% growth over the next three years and that RC Brown felt the valuation would rise.

CAB Payments launched on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) in July, initially valued at over £840m, although its shares soon started to fall. The firm specialises in helping businesses make payments to ‘hard-to-reach markets’. However, a profit warning earlier this week highlighted that ‘ongoing uncertainties’ in the Nigerian naira (one of its key currencies) were impacting both volumes and margins. As a result, the company reduced its revenue guidance for 2023 by 17%, causing its shares to go into freefall. The firm’s market value now sits at just £130m.

Over-reliance on Nigeria
Brown, whose fund specialises in investing in UK IPOs or equity raises, admits that there were clear risks with CAB’s focus on a few key markets, especially the reliance on Nigeria as a profit driver. ‘There’s a danger of stuff like this happening,’ he said. ‘You don’t have great visibility on African central banks from the UK. ‘I spoke with the company a few weeks ago, and at that point, it had changed its guidance and said 40% growth was looking more like 30-35%.’ Inflation in Nigeria has reached an 18-year high of more than 25%, prompting several interventions by a newly-appointed central bank governor.

Another investor, who did not wish to be named, suggested that inflation was being stoked in the region by aid agencies using up their annual budgets with a ‘use it or lose it’ approach. Claire Trachet, founder of eponymous tech M&A advisory firm Trachet, highlighted a chain reaction in the payments sector that led to CAB’s decline. She noted that French payments behemoth Worldline lowered its full-year targets on Wednesday. This caused its shares to more than halve, with further reverberations for counterparts like Nexi and CAB Payments. ‘The payments sector experienced exponential growth during the pandemic due to the reliance on digital payments, and valuations soared as a result,’ Trachet said. ‘However, these have been dealt a significant blow due to the continuous rising of interest rates, alongside a notable drop-off in global fintech deal funding.’

Brokers slash estimates
The deal was brought to market by JP Morgan Cazenove and Barclays, with STJ hired as an advisor. Peel Hunt, which acted as a joint bookrunner alongside Liberum and Canaccord Genuity, put the stock ‘under review’ this week having previously had a target price of £4.75. Liberum downgraded its recommendation from ‘buy’ to ‘hold’ this week, slashing its target price from £4.80 to £1. Analyst Nick Anderson believes there is ‘still a good business’ underneath, despite the market contagion.
‘While all profit warnings are unexpected by definition, CAB Payments’ warning so soon after the IPO has raised question marks over management’s credibility and the visibility of underlying revenues,’ Anderson said.

With such a downgrade in growth expectations, investors in CAB Payments will question whether the information given to them was legitimate. ‘Peel Hunt did say there would be seasonality in the area the company works in, but it didn’t make it clear that it would be to this degree,’ Brown (pictured above) said. ‘This is much more volatile than I, or the market, anticipated.’ An FT column earlier this week highlighted an awkward advantage to listing in the UK over the US: the lack of class action lawsuits when newly-floated companies miss their numbers.

However, Brown questioned whether the ability for shareholders to construct a case would make much difference. ‘Let’s say shareholders sued for negligence,’ he said. ‘That’s more than £400m to give back. Who’s paying it? Peel Hunt can’t, although JP Morgan might be able to. You would have to prove fraud or negligence, which would be very difficult. ‘There’s fault on both sides,’ Brown added. ‘I’m hopping mad with myself, and I’m hopping mad with the advisers.’
Cab Payments share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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