Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[jugears] 18/12/2018 14:38

gbh2, What are your thoughts on this?

[gbh2] 18/12/2018 14:12

We really need to get on with rebuilding Britain:

[jugears] 18/12/2018 12:45

Well I wouldn't have picked any of the above companies, strange different peoples perceptions.

[disneydonald] 18/12/2018 12:35

For those who are interested, Canaccord take on the building sector for next year.

Value potential is extremely attractive but macro risks are exceptionally high. Over the last few years, while there has been pressure on margins and the market in London and the South-East at the higher end has slowed, the sector has generally defied the macro doomsayers and continued to deliver strong profits, attractive dividends and net asset growth. In 2018, share prices performed very poorly as Brexit related macro fears intensified and the autumn selling season looked a bit wanting, particularly at higher price points. We look into 2019 with the sector pricing in significant risk and presenting a very attractive potential value opportunity assuming we avoid a painful housing recession. For us, with strong balance sheets, capital discipline, a supportive land market and extension to Help to Buy, the key issue remains macro. Our crude sensitivity analysis in this note shows that the sector appears to be broadly pricing in a 5% fall in house prices and a 10% fall in volumes and if the actual outcome for 2019, is at or close to current consensus expectations, we would expect a sharp value rally; we have not changed estimates but see downside risk if the continuing political drama spills into next year. Our top picks are Bellway, MJ Gleeson and Persimmon with more caution around Crest Nicholson and Telford Homes.

Clearly the macro outlook remains the big call for 2019 and there is an unusual lack of visibility. Consensus forecasts point to low single digit percentage GDP growth with unemployment and interest rates remaining at low levels. Assuming that the macro backdrop remains relatively supportive, we would expect the new housing market to deliver modest volume growth of c.+1-2% combined with modest house price inflation of c.+1-2%. Build cost inflation is expected to ease a little to c.+3-4% and generally flat to easing land costs coming through. The live risk for us relates to sales rates, particularly in the Spring selling season next year and this is likely to be driven by confidence and employment expectations.

[m4rtinu] 18/12/2018 09:36

It is a time for courage but not recklessness. TM and, I have to admit as a Labour supporter, JC are 2 of the worst "leaders" we have been unfortunate enough to have had. It is time for the younger MPs on both sides to take the plunge and form a new party. The time is right. Even if it was as small as 50 or 60 members at first,it would hold the balance of power.

[steeplejack] 18/12/2018 08:15

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theresa-may-and-jeremy-corbyn-are-locked-in-a-dance-of-death-kx8jcs7qf?shareToken=d5b750cab540545485d1ff22e97dfb1eTweedledee and Tweedledum.

[steeplejack] 17/12/2018 17:16

Time will tell.

[tlobs2] 17/12/2018 15:23

steeplejack the relatively simple point that you are missing is that ASOS are in trouble because they have been joined by numerous other providers of online shopping NOT that the volume of sales are less.

[wbecki] 17/12/2018 13:05

Gas storage side agree. Woeful energy policy by successive governments to blame.

[pawsche] 17/12/2018 12:40

@Riley109..

I think that of more interest is



...which stands at 179,431 now, and is adding at the rate of over 1,000 per hour.

[steeplejack] 17/12/2018 11:56

I agree,the level of unsecured debt in this country is scary.If,for whatever reason,UK interest rates had to rise rapidly,personal bankruptcies and corporate failures would swiftly ensue.Peoples finances in this country are analogous to our gas storage to meet an energy crisis,virtually non existent.

[wbecki] 17/12/2018 10:34

Could just be down to everyone being up to their eyeballs in debt Steeple!!!

Ever considered that.

Only so much you can buy with only so much credit.

Debt bubble going to burst soon.

[steeplejack] 17/12/2018 08:29

If ASOS are suffering,you can can be pretty well assured that consumer confidence is falling at a rate of knots.Never fear,a new world of opportunity will open up when we throw off the yoke of EU domination and sail into the sunny waters of WTO ruling so competently prepared for by our visionaries such as Liam Fox and the "cake and eat it"brigade.

[sikhthetech] 16/12/2018 18:56

EI
""If we leave without a deal TW around 1.10 a share.""

That's optimistic..
I think leaving with no deal is just 1 challenge TW are facing... I think the consequences of new build leasehold scandal and the recent reports about 'crumbling' new builds has yet to be factored, let alone continuously falling house prices...

[wbecki] 16/12/2018 17:19

"If we leave without a deal TW around 1.10 a share."
Superb that'll be the time to buy some then :)

[tony2119] 16/12/2018 16:20

That feels reasonable...though I’m reading now in the FT that Hargreaves L. UK investor sentiment index is at 52. 10 year average is 94. Lowest it hit during the financial crisis was 62. So a lot is priced in.

[essentialinvestor] 16/12/2018 13:37

If we leave without a deal TW around 1.10 a share.

This is not a political point, it's what I think will happen in stock market terms.

Would also expect mild profit warnings to kick in from next spring.


The UK claimant count is already rising sharply, often a good forward indicator.

[tradejunkie2] 14/12/2018 20:08

Hard Brexit kitty cats there's no other way.

[hernando2] 14/12/2018 16:56

MRKS

It nothing to do with who catches the fish or buys the fish or eats the fish.

Its all about the Common Fisheries Policy..

Look it up , how it started how it evolved and how it's is shockingly bad both for the Uk and indeed the fish that are subject to it, it came out of the EU saying that fishing was part of Agriculture and there subject to they control.

The history of this organisation is shameful beyond belief..look up tariffs for agriculture whilst you are at it

[tradejunkie2] 14/12/2018 16:49

Buy back? LOL see what happened why they last did a buyback they had to halt it.