Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[jugears] 13/12/2018 19:31

the same old counterpoints

[1carus] 13/12/2018 19:27

WFL ... apologies for that comment, I really meant views expressed here. UP10 is probably representing overall sentiment without invested emotion, unlike myself and others.( Although relentless deramping normally has an agenda for some reason, but hats off to him for engaging more with counterpoints )

[wfl1970] 13/12/2018 18:52

And maybe like previous recessions, it will probably filter out the weak one's...

[jugears] 13/12/2018 18:46

The real truth is that there are now far to many estate agents all competing for the same business & they have all grown to quickly , only got themselves to blame.

[wfl1970] 13/12/2018 18:33

'I think a lot of sentiment on a share position is very specific to the individual.'

I agree with that.

[wbecki] 13/12/2018 18:28

You can understand why UP10 is pessimistic....

"RICS house price balance slumped to -11 last month from -10 in October, marking its lowest reading since September 2012. Meanwhile, the number of people looking for a new home fell again in November, with the net balance down to -21 from -15 in October, its lowest level since September 2017, mostly on the back of Brexit-related uncertainty.

The outlook was equally downbeat, with sales expectations for the coming three months slumping to -23 in November from -6 the month before. This was the most substantial decline in this series since the EU referendum.

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: "Until households can be sure that the economic status quo won't change next year, we expect house prices to struggle. But even further ahead, house prices are set to rise less quickly than households' incomes, as the MPC likely will pick up the pace of interest rate hikes next year."

Short term weakness for sure...Long term, inexorable rise imo.

Question is - Barratt, Wimpey, bovis, Crest, Inland??? Persimmon.

Which is the best play or does one buy several?

[1carus] 13/12/2018 18:04

UP10. Your overall sentiment might be correct for the industry in the medium term. But true or not, many on here think that TW. is in a somewhat unique position to weather a 2-3 year downturn and maintain value for share holders. I think it has stated such. If like a few on here you are happy to take the divi based on an original pound or less purchase price, which if you are also amortising your previous gains for say the last 4 years on this, a share value dip even by a large amount is inconsequential. I agree that you could sell and move your money and possibly make it work harder in something else. That would also assume no tax implications, and you don't get upset if the share price suddenly reversed direction and you miss the upward movement. TBH I would be more than happy for these to stay relatively low until April, so I can bed and breakfast them into my isa! I think a lot of sentiment on a share position is very specific to the individual.

[wbecki] 13/12/2018 17:56

Spot on jug.

Ultimately it boils down to Supply ands demand

Demand is rising far too fast for supply to keep up.

Record number of annual house build is what in the last 60 years?
250,000 pa?

Even that isnt enough...

Prices will rise over the long term for that reason alone.

Every where you look, building plots seem to be springing up.

That tells you how overcrowded we are (and set to get evenn more so)

[jugears] 13/12/2018 17:54

Up10 I bought a house in the 80's for 60k & had to sell it 7 years later for 45k, last year it sold for 290k. There is only one way house prices are going long term & that is up even if we doubled out put this will have little long term effect.

[up10] 13/12/2018 17:03

Two points:-

Firstly, i'm not short TW.

Secondly, the easy money is over in housing.



There is massive speculative positions in property. That is ending.

Remember it's not all about the UK, there are very strong external factors to consider.

There may be a few pence to the upside with TW.

But that does not change the longer term down trend, which is well and truly bearish.

This is not the bottom.

[tlobs2] 13/12/2018 16:47

The last house that we sold tripled in price over a twenty five year period. Stick that in your algorithm and work out how we have managed to do that......


It's not rocket science up10.


There is a huge demand for properties and we can't build houses quick enough to satisfy demand. That's why TW are doing so well and why the Directors are buying just in time for the kick in of the share repurchase plan.


The one thing you wouldn't want to be at the moment is short on TW shares.

[zoro9791] 13/12/2018 16:38

I don't like the doom and gloom but I have to agree with you.House pricing are beginning to stagnate, of course it does not mean that UK doesn't need more house.It only means that property is not going to be that attractive investment opportunity.

[up10] 13/12/2018 16:31

"Well house prices are rising up here in Cheshire."




Not for much longer they won't.

Everybody knows price changes spread from the south east, and they are well and truly going down.

[baracuda2] 13/12/2018 15:42

Up10, you are such a total tw.t

[tony2119] 13/12/2018 15:28

You need to have a positive outlook backed up by a firm belief in your investments in today's markets. Momentum investing is a roller-coaster. All this money now in passive funds which are mandated to hug the index and thereby limit under-performance and fund outflows drives scary volatility. I have been up then down then up then down on BT, WPP, Vodafone and a bunch others seemingly for no reason, no obvious catalyst.

I'm an optimist with TW but still expect some severe down days in the weeks ahead. But no one can time the market so I will not be selling.

[tlobs2] 13/12/2018 14:47

A positive attitude is something that goes deeper and has an effect beyond surface cheer. Negative attitudes promote fear, and a narrowing of focus and the mind, while positive attitudes do the opposite. No one should live in a constant state of “fight or flight”, but negative attitudes create exactly that scenario.

Studies have also shown that having a true positive attitude makes your view of life seem broad, full of possibilities. That view leads to actually living your life in a way that makes it natural to be exposed to and acquire new skills. People with a positive attitude also get their leg over more frequently.

[wbecki] 13/12/2018 14:45

is the housing market outlook dire?

Possibly for london, but the rest of the country???

We've 200,000 odd homeless.
We have hundred's of thousands migrating to UK each year all needing housing,and that's before we take into account rising population already resident.

UN Migration pact going to make migration a human right> Where do you think they'll mostly head to???

Welfare state
NHS
Both free.

Housing stocks going to boom and buying on weakness is the play.

Only fly in ointment a Corbyn government.
Then we're all up the khyber pass without a paddle.

[up10] 13/12/2018 14:28

Unfortunately, positive thinking is not going to save the housing market.

The outlook is dire.

[tlobs2] 13/12/2018 14:14

Christ there are some miserable extremists on here today...... give your heads a wobble lads and lasses.


You are only on this planet the once so why not enjoy it with a positive outlook? :-)

[wfl1970] 13/12/2018 12:24

If it is looking like a Brexit with 'No Deal'... Or on WTO rules as some would say...
It'll create alot of uncertainty and take alot longer to iron out than many think...
Imv, the coming months will be volatile until some sort of clarity is available...
Personally, I disagree with the 'once Brexit is sorted, it'll be business as usual'!

[disneydonald] 13/12/2018 11:55

Well, Boris doesn’t care whether we stay in or leave, his priorities revolve around becoming the Prime Minister. He would happily stay if he thought he could be PM. Notice he is quite happy for Jacob to take the media flak, whilst he bides his time.

[wbecki] 13/12/2018 11:52

If labour get in you can guarantee Council tax will soar across the board, alongside their "Garden/window" tax which will result in many being forced sellers.

Housing market will implode as will much else.

A large propertion of Jewish community will hurriedly sell and leave.

We'll be Venezuela in 18-24 months