Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[gbh2] 02/8/2018 15:08

No good getting back to “normal” monetary policy when the vast majority of working folk simply cannot get a pay increase!

[disneydonald] 02/8/2018 12:16

In the interest of balance. Personally I believe it is good that the BoE has raised, as we need to start getting back to more “normal” monetary policy. Also, the BoE have greater insight to the strength or otherwise of the economy and a rise signals things aren’t as bad as current sentiment suggests. IMHO, I think this will help the market move forward with respect to the UK economy, not withstanding the wider issues re you know what and Trump’s trade negotiations. Markets normally do well in the early stages of tightening.

[jugears] 02/8/2018 11:37

omg48 - IMHO Interest rate rises & Brexit have been built in to most share prices for some time.

[pander45] 02/8/2018 10:34

Calabrian, imho you are wrong. Headwinds strengthening here - higher interest rates, disposable income reduction, inflationary pressure, London market pressure a bell weather and the big one a brexit no deal. That would crush the share price just as it did on the referendum result. Aimho. I'm out.

[omg48] 02/8/2018 10:22

Is the BoE interest rate hike priced into TW share price at 170.45?

[dr_smith] 01/8/2018 11:06

Hi marksp2011, we seem to be sharing same threads.

On landbanks, yes, they (big builders in general) used to buy well in advance, partly to allow for time for planning permission.
Gov have said this time is to be reduced, but ...I think.. developers are still finding it on slow side - so not sure if long term land bank still desirable on that front - but from HY report I see

"this, together with the improved planning environment, will enable us to reduce the short term landbank length by around one year (from the current 5.3 years to 4-4.5 years) over the next five years."

It does seem as you say, on land cost front, there is no immediate escalation of land prices, so less imperative to buy sooner, though if tide turns, acquisition of large sites at right price likely has a time lag.

There is the new gov policy of penalising those that buy land to hold, to sell/build later, where motivation is to capitalise on inflation, a speculative purchase.

This concerned me as big builders need landbanks to manage peaks/troughs, as well as planning time aspect, and isn't exploitive, but good management, in the same way BOE tweaks interest rates.
For gov to interfere here would have promoted the build /bust scenario all are trying to avoid.
So.. it was good to see that gov are happy the big builders aren't landbanking for the speculative side.

IMO :-)
Dave

[rpt_huge_reserves_upgrade] 01/8/2018 08:41

If you missed RPT RNS - you could say its a stormer - Up again tomorrow
Increased P1 reseves by around 1500%!!!!! Not going to comment on the rest, have a read....

Yes that is 1500% uplift (and thats just the P1) It is hard to believe how significant this is.

THe herd have not arrived yet.. Its still under the radar of most investors.

Add to it 40 million USD in the bank
Heading for 4,000 boepd production in the short term
Just announced 24 well development programme for this huge resource.

Some comments from twitter below

#RPT A truly gigantic reserves upgrade for O&G holding #RegalPetroleum. About to catch a flight but am totally ecstatic by this news. Totally oustanding. 1P (proved) soar from 1.9mmboe to 27.8mmboe and a further 24 wells. Gobsmacked! investegate.co.uk/regal-petroleu…

Dont waste your time and miss the boat, this is still seriously undervalued .

[garycook] 01/8/2018 08:37

01 Aug Taylor Wimpey PLC Deutsche Bank Buy 175.65 244.00 Reiterates

[marksp2011] 01/8/2018 08:04

m4rtinu

The profit is in the land the houses are built on. Building the houses is the vehicle for reselling the land. property prices are tied with incomes...... they have to be. A 3 bed in Chorley has a price - Build costs are what they are.... there isn't a tremendous difference in building different types of ordinary homes the price of the land is the key determinant to the overall margin. Holding land is a cost as it ties up capital. TW are reducing their land bank as they don't see land price inflation so why buy now when I can buy when i need it?

This will release capital...... TW and others have indicated that they are at a steady state build rate so...... I guess the announcements mean that they are in a steady state position and profits will move in line with incomes.

[calabrian] 01/8/2018 07:09

From now until Sept is exactly the time to be invested here.

[podgyted] 01/8/2018 00:24

Market basically ignored results - latched on to a possibility that interest rates would not rise on Thursday. Uncertain and volatile - I'm out until September at the earliest.

[m4rtinu] 31/7/2018 20:07

Jugears - there seems a lot more profit (margin) in building houses, than in construction, especially in public works. As I know to my cost with Carillion.

[jugears] 31/7/2018 16:58

Volume looked pretty normal in TW to me considering the amount of shares in circulation & I was very impressed with the report today, I have always said this is one very well ran company & have absolutely know doubt that these will exceed my expectations in the future, As for Interest rates ,If they rise next month by .25% I think that will be the last time for a very long time, Although IMHO I think it very unlikely we will see an increase by the middle of next year the economy is still to fragile in my opinion, Housing may be ok but the rest of construction is really struggling now & so are other sectors any interest rate rise now could really slow the economy & I am not sure that is a risk worth taking.

[gbh2] 31/7/2018 14:50

Hell of a lot of holders had enough of the share price fiasco judging by the volume.

[calabrian] 31/7/2018 13:32

The sky is going to fall in due to an increase in rates? Brexit, Y2K, SARS, bird flu, global warming, trade wars, North Korea, global terrorism......Society is on a knife edge I get it. Britain is full of morons who are up to their teeth in debt. I get it. It doesn't change the fact TW. is a great investment.

[disneydonald] 31/7/2018 11:56

Gerd. Sure £ collapse and oil have added to inflation, however some of those costs are now out of year to year comparisons.
As for Japan, their economy is quite different as thy have for a long time huge trade surpluses and extremely high savings rate, unlike the UK. We do not have the luxury of inbuilt resistance to inflation. So not really a true comparison.
Either way, let’s see what gives at next BoE MPC.

[gbh2] 31/7/2018 11:49

Upped my holding early morning, reduced my ave share price to 180p.

I'm not big on long term holds but imo House builders are always going to be needed, so here's as good as anywhere in these uncertain times.

[dr_smith] 31/7/2018 11:44

Nice to see:
"During the first half of 2018, the housing market has been stable across all our core geographies, including London. "

..so London OK, not merely compensated for when aggregating for group figures.
Re London..
With Brexit, possible exiting co's & staff, stamp duty costs, reported longer time for housing chains, more folks renting, BKG suffering at top end, change in tax for landlords, it is hard to get a balanced view of London, though it always seems to be on the up in long term.
..so nice to see the satement, presumably a direct comment on underlying figues, rather than an impression - such as RICS reports, that I always feel are statements of (collective) personal opinions, rather than fact.

IMO :-)

[tlobs2] 31/7/2018 11:44

To be fair I would estimate that most TW customers are already on the housing ladder and simply want to buy a new property. I doubt whether a modest increase in interest rates (from historical lows) would influence whether they choose to buy or not.

[gerdmuller] 31/7/2018 11:35

Without wishing to sound too sarcastic I think I was vaguely aware that their remit is to control inflation. Most of the inflation is cost push through the fall in the currency and the recent rise in energy prices. Hardly any is demand pull as many younger consumers are now probably starting to reach the limits of their borrowing powers.

If you don't believe in a perpetual low interest rate environment just look at a chart of as to how Japan has gone in the past 20 years or more.

[disneydonald] 31/7/2018 10:46

Gerd, well, primarily it’s The BoE’s job to control inflation and if they believe we are about to get a dose they will lift rates to counter. Ideally, a stitch in time is the best plan. Either way, early tightening of monetary policy does not usually knock growth. In fact the Market normally takes this as a positive. Let’s see what the BoE does, as its only Brexit that is making them overly cautious.

[kulvinder] 31/7/2018 10:45

GerdMuller, could not agree with you more on your comments;

"Take a one percent interest rate rise for example. When people had mortgages of £50k or so that was manageable. Now people have mortgages of £200k or more that would equate to £170 a month plus rises in other borrowing cost. May not seem a lot to some here but if you are already on the edge then that is the tipping point.

The UK like many other countries is trapped in a low growth low interest rate environment. Central banks know it but won't admit it."

If they try to raise rates - they will kill the UK as it relies on Housing stock being built to keep people in work.... any rate rises will kill it for the Tories so they will not let it happen any time soon.

As for TW - Good Solid Update....with a great yield to boot.

[gerdmuller] 31/7/2018 10:35

People keep talking about interest rates going up. How can they?

While it's clear there may be the token gesture of 0.25 percent or so that would only be done so there is room to put them down again in a contraction.

Take a one percent interest rate rise for example. When people had mortgages of £50k or so that was manageable. Now people have mortgages of £200k or more that would equate to £170 a month plus rises in other borrowing cost. May not seem a lot to some here but if you are already on the edge then that is the tipping point.

The UK like many other countries is trapped in a low growth low interest rate environment. Central banks know it but won't admit it.