Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[libertine] 05/8/2014 11:32

taffee

So that means builders will lose margin and cut back on building
Prices will fall which means property will become more affordable
Land values will fall so builders will accumulate and store
Government will introduce more measures to shore up property market
People will come back into the market due to affordability
Demand will exceed supply even more
Property prices will rocket due to shortage
So builders will increase supply from their cheaply purchased land
Builders margins increase

[edlndn] 05/8/2014 11:29

gbh2, quick question - how does a Hedge Fund drive a share price down?

[taffee] 05/8/2014 10:59

No...the market thinks that property market is in trouble as it appears
demand is falling supply is increasing and supply of credit is reducing
This will mean prices fall

Builders business models don't tally well with falling prices as it hits their
Margins...big falls.and the whole business plan goes out the window

This is because of the long lead in from.land.purchase to completion

[gbh2] 05/8/2014 10:50

As I mentioned before, there's no cash in this for HFs until special divi next year so they're just seeing how far they can sell it down imo!

[trytotakeiteasy] 05/8/2014 10:31

looks like we got this wrong.. it only wants to go down!!!

What is surprising is that any news is bad for housebuilders according to media etc:

House prices up - housing market out of control and crash due
House prices moderate - housing crash in motion
House builder's invest in land to boost supply - haven't learnt lessons from past
Interest rates may rise slowly - will destroy housing market and everything..

[optomistic] 05/8/2014 09:01

A very sensible move by Lloyds!

[taffee] 05/8/2014 08:58

Britain's largest mortgage lender has reduced the amount it will lend to first-time buyers under the Help to Buy scheme. Lloyds Banking Group has capped its lending at £150,000, down from £500,000 – a reduction of 70pc.
Property experts warned the cap will make it harder for first-time buyers to purchase a property, particularly in areas of rising house prices.
They also said it could prompt other lenders to rein in their Help to Buy offers, with the Government under pressure to close the scheme.

[edlndn] 04/8/2014 16:34

sector news...

- Hike in new homes being built -
1st Aug 2014 by David Rogers, Building Design

The number of new homes registered in the UK during the second quarter was up 3% to nearly 37,000.

The private sector was responsible for driving the growth which saw new homes hit a mark of 36,858 compared to the 35,683 recorded for the same April-June period last year.

Work in the private sector grew by 9% to 27,527 compared to same period last year but the number of registrations in the public sector fell 11% to 9,331, according to figures from the NHBC.

The south east experienced a 48% increase over the last quarter, compared to the same period last year with 6,434 registrations, while registrations in the east Midlands were up 38% to 3,708.

NHBC chief executive Mike Quinton said: "It is encouraging to see that house building levels have continued to grow.

"However, we have been clear that the UK still has an undersupply of new homes so we must continue to work hard to meet the growing housing needs of the population."

[homeboy35] 04/8/2014 14:11

I think Mr. Hindsight did quite well!

[aspers] 01/8/2014 14:26

If you time your trading right you could make 3p a share every day for the past month.......needless to say I haven't! :-(

[gbh2] 01/8/2014 13:43

Hedgies putting some cash on their books by buying back a few of the shares they sold yesterday & this morning :))

[aspers] 01/8/2014 09:48

01 Aug Deutsche Bank Buy 108.60 165.00 165.00 Reiterates

[aspers] 01/8/2014 09:47

A great trading share but at these prices no reason why going long will not double your money within a year!

[badmumba] 01/8/2014 09:02

No its not but for the moment this seems to be stuck in a range ,good for trading .

[gbh2] 01/8/2014 08:59

Down 8p since results isn't exactly a resounding testimony to this being a good investment either.

Fortunately we're in the grip of a US panic over interest rates rises, bond prices and the usual summer malaise re all things market related, I'll buy a few back today.

[badmumba] 01/8/2014 08:55

Down 2p when the DOW lost over 300 points last night is not nosediving.

[badmumba] 01/8/2014 08:18

And then you read comments like "London will never fall spectacularly". Never is a long time..
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I am certainly not talking about a major collapse in residential property prices.
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Bob you just contradicted yourself up there , anyway it looks like you agree with me really , my posts were to tell taffee that London will not crash by 70 %...

[shaws67] 01/8/2014 06:41

This sums up toffee and his chum Bob.As the economist John Kenneth Galbraith once said: "We have two kinds of forecasters: Those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know."

[bobsidian] 01/8/2014 00:40

The Bank of England would prefer to leave market forces to address the supply/demand imbalances much in evidence in London. But when you have the IMF, the World Bank and even the OECD expressing alarm at what is going on with the pricing of residential property in London then it becomes difficult for the powers that be to sit idly by and do nothing.

Even the housebuilders in their accompanying commentary to results and updates are expressing support for the measures being taken to calm the residential property market. They neither want nor need another boom and bust scenario which brought them close to the point of corporate collapse back in 2009. Rather they would prefer property prices to be aligned to and underpinned by a steady and relatively predictable growth in affordability.

The current management of TW. would like to operate in the same way that BKG operates and consistently reward shareholders with special dividends. But equity market participants are currently expressing doubt that market conditions will allow TW. to fulfil such ambition.

And then you read comments like "London will never fall spectacularly". Never is a long time. I am sure similar sentiments were expressed in Tokyo in the late 80s. I am certainly not talking about a major collapse in residential property prices. But I am of a view that London may be vulnerable to a significant price correction in the order of 25%-30% which would bring property prices back into the realm of comparative affordability.

The dynamics of a property market correction are interesting. When once ten viewings may have elicited 4 competing bids, a change in the ability to access finance can whittle down those bids to 2. And if those remaining bids fall to 1 as a result of request for exclusivity, the spectre of gazundering looms large for the seller. And when prospective buyers become aware of property price falls manifesting in statistics so it can create a hesitancy that can quickly infect a property market. I suspect that statistics three months hence may reveal the beginnings of a property price correction in London.

[nofool] 31/7/2014 22:55

taffee - posting well again today. Appreciate it.

[badmumba] 31/7/2014 17:03

bobsibian or whatever , i do agree that houses have gone up too quick and there will be a correction ,sooner than the last two times , but London will never fall spectacularly .
Some of this is Chinese /Asia buying up new build flats etc ,yes at high prices ,but do you think that a property bought for 500k will be sold at 150k ??

taffee your mates flat was the late 90's ,and ?

[shaws67] 31/7/2014 15:53

This sums up toffee and his chum Bob.



As the economist John Kenneth Galbraith once said: "We have two kinds of forecasters: Those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know."

[shaws67] 31/7/2014 15:51

Just to reiterate

Toffee is a manic depressive 80 yr old with nothing better to do than express her jealousy.

Filtered her month ago. Total idiot, her life expectancy won't see her next predictive market crash.