Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[shaws37] 04/5/2012 07:43

Hi jj, good to know you're still about.



Anyone think tw. share price will slide back during the next quarter ? It has over the last 2 summers. May see 45p low ?

[smurfy2001] 02/5/2012 09:48

It's possible - wait and see at the moment... BDEV is cheap, plenty upside there ....

[sir rational] 02/5/2012 09:46

Forming a bit of an interesting chart with breakout imminent

[smurfy2001] 02/5/2012 09:39

needs to break 52p

[homeboy35] 02/5/2012 09:30

People lost interest, but it has shaken off bad news, and is looking strong again, considering the state of housing and the economy in general

[jibba_jabba] 27/4/2012 12:03

Shaws I'm still here, not trading at the mo, preoccupied with other work at the mo, wet play today.. I try to check in most evenings..

[sir rational] 26/4/2012 19:57

45p might get interested again

[battue2] 26/4/2012 19:17

shaws37,I don't see anything to prop it up, we've had a lot of good news and good vibes for TW in the last month or so i think it must run out of steam, and drift down between statements.Which is no bad thing it gives opportunities to trade some if your that way inclined. I cant think of any news that would make it fly. But a least its moved up a few notches this year. Now its sorted its self out as it where, i think the economy and mortgage availability will be the main drivers here.We will get our £1+, just taking about 5years longer than i had hoped. ATB

[shaws37] 26/4/2012 17:42

J-J, are you still around ?



Battue2, tw usually drifts away from the end of April and begins it's rise again in October, or there abouts. You reckon this may be the case again this year ?

[battue2] 26/4/2012 09:05

Well there it is, a nice (steady as she goes) statement, about all that can be hoped for at the moment. I think a period of consolidation around 50p. But i still think 45p before 65p. ATb

[fangorn2] 26/4/2012 08:42

IMS statement

housing market conditions remain stable and the Group is trading at the upper end of our expectations. We continue to expect to deliver further steady improvement in margin, return on net operating assets and net asset value


Anyone going to the AGM.

[127tolmers] 24/4/2012 07:38

3 interesting bits of news this morning.

Redrow interims show strong trading, increased margins and a good outlook.

RDW have been active buying land and now want to make a step change in London residential and have separately announced a placing of £80m to buy land there and elsewhere.

St Mowden has accelerated its acquisition of RAF Uxbridge (45 developable acres). 23 acres are committed to a JV run by Persimmon.

All these announcements show that the residential housebuilding market is becoming increasingly robust and profitable. We might just not see the usual summmer share price slump this year.

[smurfy2001] 22/4/2012 19:32

Thanks mucker ;-)

[northernlass] 22/4/2012 18:33

Inquiries Are Flooding In

Further evidence of buoyant market conditions for Taylor Wimpey follows ratings upgrade by Fitch.

Here's the story:



P.S.

Here's a couple of links about SCLP, one of the hottest stocks at the moment:

[imastu pidgitaswell] 19/4/2012 16:00

Interesting also that it seems to have happened some 10 months after the sale of the US business which essentially reduced the debt transformationally and therefore the associated risk.

They're good, these rating people - Fitch, Moodys and S&P - just the sort the world needs in a financial crisis to give timely and appropriate advice as to debt risk...

[cockneyrebel] 19/4/2012 15:29

Interesting they have done this just ahead of a trading update and not after imo.

Cheaoer borrowing imo, which is nice.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 19/4/2012 15:27

The following is a press release from Fitch Ratings:

Fitch Ratings-London-19 April 2012: Fitch Ratings has upgraded UK house builder Taylor Wimpey plc's (TW) Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior unsecured rating to 'BB-' from 'B+'. Its Short-term IDR is affirmed at 'B'. The Outlook is Stable.
"Taylor Wimpey is now predominantly focused on UK house building following the disposal of its North American business in the second quarter of 2011, focusing management attention on increasing margins and developing its strategic land bank for sustained medium term profitability," says Anil Jhangiani, Director in Fitch's EMEA Corporate Finance team. "Whilst benefiting from a solid capital structure with long-term capital intensive land bank development activities well supported by its equity position and only modest debt to fund measured working capital growth. In Fitch's view, all these positive elements have contributed towards a rating upgrade."
TW's solid recovery is most evident from continued margin growth. At FY11 EBITDA margins improved to 8.8% from 5.0% and 1.7% for FY10 and FY09 respectively. This reflects a combination of lower build costs, overhead rationalisation and lower land bank costs. Fitch's forecasts have been revised to show improved expected performance with adjusted net debt/EBITDAR leverage now estimated at around 1.5x. Fitch expects TW to maintain a leverage ratio of around 1.5x on a sustained basis (or around 3.5x if land creditors are also included as debt).
Fitch currently estimates that UK house prices could fall by a further 5%-10% in the medium term. This will mask some regional disparities, particularly in central London, where it is expected that foreign (cash) buyers will continue to underpin prices with annual low signal digit growth expected in the medium term. The long term view on UK residential property volumes is relatively robust with a structural under-supply of homes in the UK. However, constrained mortgage financing, high unemployment and relatively high house prices (when based on affordability models) are likely to keep new housing sales significantly below pre-crisis levels. Positively, low interest rates, relatively low arrears (when compared to past recessions) and attractive rental yields (compared to UK gilt rates) have supported prices from falling further.
TW, to some extent, is restricted by the low volume UK housing market and its inherent high cyclicality. However, it benefits from being one of the market leaders, enjoying reasonable market share and solid diversification across the UK. That said, more exposure to the favourable London market would be viewed as a positive for the rating. TW has also taken steps to enhance their product mix moving away from weak demand housing units such as lower priced apartments towards building higher priced houses with stronger demand dynamics.
TW's liquidity position remains strong with a fully undrawn GBP600m committed debt facility and no debt maturities until Q414. High debt funding costs were further reduced during FY11 with a GBP85m debt buyback of the 10.375% Senior unsecured note due 2015.
All debt facilities benefit from a shortfall guarantee from Taylor Wimpey UK Ltd, the main operational and asset-owning entity of the TW group (representing over 90% of consolidated assets, revenue and EBITDA). This reduces the senior lenders' structural subordination, as any shortfall of recovery by the guaranteed senior lenders ranks equally as an unsecured liability of the guarantor. However, the pension funds benefit from the Pension Protection Fund standard guarantee, which increases their recovery.
Contacts:
Primary Analyst
- Anil Jhangiani
- Director
- [phone]
- Fitch Ratings Limited
- 30 North Colonnade
- London E14 5GN
Secondary Analyst
- Jean-Pierre Husband
- Director
- [phone]
Committee Chairperson
- Josef Pospisil
- Senior Director
- [phone]
Media Relations: Peter Fitzpatrick, London, Tel: [phone], Email: [e-mail].
Additional information is available at www.fitchratings.com.
The ratings above were solicited by, or on behalf of, the issuer, and therefore, Fitch has been compensated for the provision of the ratings.
Applicable criteria, "Corporate Rating Methodology", dated 12 August 2011 are available at www.fitchratings.com.
Applicable Criteria and Related Research:
- Corporate Rating Methodology
-
ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC WEBSITE 'WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM'. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE 'CODE OF CONDUCT' SECTION OF THIS SITE.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 19, 2012 10:26 ET (14:26 GMT)

COUNTRY:R/EC R/EU R/UK R/WEU
SECTOR:I/HOM I/HPR I/UKSC I/XDJGI I/XFT2
SUBJECT:N/DJEI N/CMDI N/DJCB N/DJFP N/DJG7 N/DJI N/DJIB N/DJIN N/DJIV N/DJMO N/DJPT N/DJWB N/DN N/EMR N/EUCM N/FXW N/WED N/BON N/COB N/DJPN N/DJWI N/EMT N/FTH N/PRL N/RTG N/TPCT N/TSY N/WEI
COMPANY:TW.LN TWODY GB0008782301 US8774091024
SERVICE:P/EQE P/PSH P/RTRS P/TAP P/WMMI K/20120419011858DN
CURRENCY:M/NCY M/NND M/TPX

[127tolmers] 19/4/2012 07:38

..and here is the PSN update (relevant part)

"As previously reported, we have experienced a strong start to the current year with the spring selling season continuing to outperform the previous year. Visitor levels to our sites over the first fifteen weeks have been c. 10% higher with cancellation rates running at historically low levels at c. 17%.



We continue to be encouraged by the level of customer enquiries registered on both our Persimmon Homes and Charles Church websites and we have seen a further increase in interest following the Government's launch of the NewBuy 95% loan-to-value mortgage guarantee product in March. We believe this scheme will support increased sales activity for the UK housebuilding industry once all the major mortgage lenders have entered the market, and made NewBuy widely available at attractive rates.



Our weekly private sales rate has continued to run ahead of the same period in the prior year increasing by c. 20% in the first fifteen weeks of the year. Our order book, including legal completions already achieved for the current year, now totals £1.24 billion, 9% ahead of the position at the same point last year."

This should help to underpin the housebuilding sector share prices.

[cockneyrebel] 16/4/2012 08:54

Agree Tolmers tho I'm not sure that the news is that London related - many builders have been upbeat recently imo.

PSN trading update very soon.

CR

[127tolmers] 16/4/2012 07:43

Very good results from Telford Homes this morning albeit from rather a specialist E London location

Outlook

Visitor numbers and reservation rates have increased by more than 50 per cent in the first few months of 2012 compared to the same period last year and the Board expects a steady rate of sales to UK buyers to continue to be complemented by demand from overseas investment buyers.

The new sites acquired and the bank facility secured last year have positioned the Group well to take advantage of both a continued shortage of supply of new homes and the fundamental strengths of the London market.

Jon Di-Stefano, Chief Executive of Telford Homes, commented: "The London market has proved particularly resilient and, together with improved margins, our sales performance means profits for the year to 31 March 2012 are anticipated to be ahead of market expectations. The Board remains positive in its outlook with profit levels expected to increase significantly in the new financial year underpinned by pre-sales already secured and by some of the new sites we have acquired in the last 12 months."

[naed] 12/4/2012 21:22

yes agree, I've been here about 3 years now (14.75)p. its just getting interesting after a white knuckle ride. This has quite someway to go yet! Rather have shares at today's price than what they will be on May 22nd.

[figis] 12/4/2012 16:35

I believe the buy price is the share price on the day that the dividend becomes payable i.e. May 22. You as an investor have to make the decision to take the cash or the shares. Personally I prefer to take shares rather than cash. I would like to think this company is in recovery mode and the share price in 12 months time should be much higher.

[naed] 12/4/2012 15:36

Thanks figis,
do you know if its worth having the divi as shares as offered by the scheme? Whilst i've had the offer come through it does not give a buy price, or would this be the market price on the 20th April???????

[figis] 12/4/2012 12:38

Extract from the published results February 29

Subject to shareholder approval at the AGM, the final dividend of 0.38 pence will be paid on 22 May 2012 to shareholders on the register at the close of business on 20 April 2012.