Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[sir rational] 30/6/2011 15:06

Consensus forecast - about to be upgraded slightly - should surely form the basis for valuation and a sell decision.

2011 2.11p EPS
2012 3.55p EPS

Those will increase to circa 2.75p (2011) and 4.2p (2012) (pretty much where forecast was 3 months ago, somebody must have downgraded in the interim).

The half year is over, the market starts to look ahead and so only forward earnings matters now.

4.2p (2012) means TW. is on 9x PER

Compared to (2012)

PSN 5.7x
BDEV 15.2x
BWY 13.1x
BVS 19.0x
RDW 16.6x

Once TM is completed, TW. should rise to some 15x, especially with a divi in sight.

That'd be 63p.

[aphrodites] 30/6/2011 14:54

SMURF & FEW$MORE

My target when I am TRADING in size is,as I have posted here several times, never more than 3/4p in a sequence.

40p is obviously going to be the first target because as we all know, big figures always provide a barrier in any move upwards or downwards.

Hopefully I shall be out long before this hits the higher prices which the 5-wave sequence might take it to.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 30/6/2011 14:45

This is my iss ue with trading - so you bought at 37. It made 38 (so far), but now is looking weak intra-day.

What to do? Sell for a small profit? Wait and see? I wouldn't know, I'd have to have some fundamental basis for a trade.

[sir rational] 30/6/2011 14:40

Very probably yes. Would you?

[spennysimmo] 30/6/2011 14:08

Will you sell at 50p?

[sir rational] 30/6/2011 14:01

50p target now

[fewdollarsmore] 30/6/2011 14:00

Spenny - did I not post a little while back re the chart forming an almost mirror image!! I am however hoping it breaks this and goes onto new highs rather than spike to 43p then back down to 37p.

[fewdollarsmore] 30/6/2011 13:33

Aphro - nice to see you taking a nibble sorry bite! what is your target?

[smurfy2001] 30/6/2011 13:17

APHRODITES,

What is our friend Elliot saying, what is the target price?

[sir rational] 30/6/2011 13:06

There you go, we've even got the chart monkeys in on it lol

[aphrodites] 30/6/2011 13:05

Bought in size today on the break of 37p.

Looks like we are in the third leg of 5 which is usually the strongest wave.

[fewdollarsmore] 30/6/2011 12:54

Come on lets do 10% plus in a day!!!

[imastu pidgitaswell] 30/6/2011 12:24

Hmmm - there has been quite a lot of negative sentiment and selling pressure from traders over the past three months or so since 44p was reached - but that descending triangle looks like it has been kicked into touch, and the 35p floor has not been breached - and actually a few days of progress, followed by the TM confirmation might give it a proper kick upwards, fuelled by some short closing.

Once it gets going, it gets some momentum, and the selling pressure diminishes, with some positive news on volumes that appears to be happening but is not being quoted yet - higher highs, higher lows, could see some proper progress.

[sir rational] 30/6/2011 11:09

There I beg to differ ;-)

CEO has categorically stated that the forecast will be beaten and TW. will come in ahead of mkt expectations. (OK there's always a hint of probability/ risk but he has as good as guaranteed an excellent set of results.)

Grounds for a strong rally and TW. is almost certain to test the recent highs in the next few weeks IMHO.

[slytherin] 30/6/2011 10:50

Showing a bit of strength now. A finish approaching 38p would be good, but I don't expect it to hold above 38p today

[sir rational] 30/6/2011 10:50

Excellent - will beat forecast - you don't get CEOs making that kind of prediction unless they are 100% sure - with 79% sold for the year at the H1 mark, TW. are confident enough to predict profits ABOVE current mkt expectations.

50p back in sight.

[slytherin] 30/6/2011 09:45

Clearly people listen to you Dollar! It shot back above 37p straight after you posted

[fewdollarsmore] 30/6/2011 09:10

Cannot seem to hold its head above 37p why is it such a strong res??

[imastu pidgitaswell] 30/6/2011 08:51

I wouldn't worry about the director - a non-exec who gives around 20 days a year of his time for board meetings and other pointless committees. It's the executive management who run the business, the independent non-execs on the board are there to read reports to the board, overview and is really there to stop them doing anything stupid before it's too late.

The spin they put on it, that he's an expert on the South East housing market is just to emphasise that he knows something about the business. Possibly...

I meant boring as in stable - nothing wrong with that, I'd rather have the truth than a spun distortion of facts. I't just that there is nothing we know today that we didn't know yesterday, other than that the TM deal is not yet done - but it's as good as done, a matter of days.

I had wondered whether there had been a recent pick up in volumes, having read a couple of stories, but it's just too recent, literally a matter of a few weeks. Not enough to comment on.

I guess the share price so far reflects that.

[shaws37] 30/6/2011 08:42

With the amount of shares in issues, the divi wont be much, i'd rather they ploughed it into land. But that's just my thoughts.


Ovbiously i'd love to see the share price high 40's or 50's. Ok then, 80's+ :-)

[slytherin] 30/6/2011 08:36

That'll do me. It's moved the price up a bit and saved the TM news for another boost later on.

In the current climate, it sounds like a good solid performance. I suspect there was concern about the housing market collapsing like the retailers.

[fewdollarsmore] 30/6/2011 08:31

127 - Agree they should concentrate on keeping their house in order (scuse the pun) for the time being stablise the business, buy some cheap land for future and start paying a divi. Diversification can wait until things pick up and house selling prices increase by more than 2k year on year.

Lets hope this provides the boost to see 37p behind... into the 40's would be a good prior to formal announcement of US sales completion.

[127tolmers] 30/6/2011 08:27

Not sure about the new director and "strategy". Sounds like an invitation to spend US money on uncharted diversifications. TW need to stick to the knitting and pay some dividends.