Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[imastu pidgitaswell] 23/6/2011 11:09

Bit early to be on the sauce?

[sir rational] 23/6/2011 11:08

And now it's solid
Solid as a rock
That's what this share is
That's what we've got, oh, mmm...

Solid (Oh)
Solid as a rock
And nothing's changed it (Ooh)
The thrill is still hot, hot, hot, hot, hot, hot, hot, hot

[sir rational] 23/6/2011 10:53

Imastu - that you declaring war over there on the 10,000 thread? lol same here.

[shaws37] 23/6/2011 07:10

lol, nice one JJ. Especially our inhouse EW speacialist who states is "never" wrong - apparently.

[jibba_jabba] 22/6/2011 23:51

But don't believe for a second they know what they are talking about! Also don't believe the false charting gurus or elliott wavers or whatever. Especially the ones that have spouted doom and gloom for months. Of course they will be right sometime.... but they are usually wrong for nearly all of the time!

[127tolmers] 22/6/2011 11:19

A reminder of key dates!

Financial Calendar
Forecast
2011 Half Year Results Announcement
Aug 03 2011


Half Year 2011 Trading Update
Jun 30 2011

[aphrodites] 22/6/2011 08:54

Imatsu

Been there. Done it!!!

Having been in charge of a trading room you would be surprised about how many trades end up as hedges!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[aphrodites] 22/6/2011 07:51

FEWDOLLARS

Simple. There is not the same liquidity for me to trade in the size and close prices.

But this does not prevent me buying the stock in my investment portfolio or pension fund!

[fewdollarsmore] 21/6/2011 23:42

Aphro - fair enough, I was talking more from a trading point of view on the banks, I think they will fall back a bit more then rise past recent highs.

Why BDEV rather than TW. they seem around about the same level in terms of mcap but on the face of it as posted earlier TW. seem in better shape post the sale of TM and in terms of current profit generation.

Is it me or do we look like having almost a mirror image of the chart being played out here, see long term chart in the header..

oh well early flight for Newcastle tomorrow for a meeting I cannot be bothered to attend.

[aphrodites] 21/6/2011 22:24

FEWDOLLARS

As I posted here several weeks ago. I would not touch Lloyds or RBS with a barge pole.

I also have an investment and a trading portfolio.

BDEV is a 3-year investment and hopefully a 4 bagger.

TW is a share for my trading portfolio. I do not take a lot of notice of fundamentals when trading. Fundamentals all too often dictates people's trading psychology. And fundamentals always take too long to come to fruition.

[sir rational] 21/6/2011 17:46

Base formed ready for blast off

[slytherin] 21/6/2011 17:07

MM's seem to be holding it just within Imastu's descending triangle. Exiting that could be a breakout signal, Rupert will have his finger on the button

[libertine] 21/6/2011 12:24

How many ripples constitute a wave.

[fewdollarsmore] 21/6/2011 09:52

Aphro - thanks for the post interesting trading rules you apply, do you trade any of the banks? I am looking at both Lloyds and RBS.

I checked out BDEV and just some basic things to note:

1. The share price has fallen less than 10% from its recent peak whilst TW. has fallen over 20% plus.
2. The mcap is around 1bl v 1.2bl for TW yet TW turnover is considerably more as are the profits.

I think there is scope for TW. to be rerated however need to understand the loss on profit and turnover from the sale.

On the face of it TW. share price has some catching up to do with the rest of the market.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 21/6/2011 09:50

It's an interesting one - the obvious charty observation is that it has been forming a descending triangle since the 43p-ish peak in April:



But a break above that, quite possibly triggered by the TM sale news, would be a very good indicator, setting a very strong support at 36p-ish.

I'm not a trader, but I think my issue with trading and EW theory and waiting for wave 3 to start and getting out well before any wave 5 peak is that it's easy in hindsight to pick out, but as it's happening, with overnight closes etc, it's very difficult to get in - today would not have been possible as it has climbed 1p+ very quickly on low volume. Although accepted, you wouldn't seek to be getting in yet.

So playing along with the theory, when it pulls back in wave 2, bottoms and then starts to move up in wave 3, what do you do if it stalls for a day or so short of the wave 1 peak? Wait and see? Sell for a loss/no gain? And if you wait for wave 3 to get past the wave 1 peak before buying, you miss out on a significant part of your planned upmove. And then when wave 4 starts, you have to sit it out while your profit reduces waiting for the wave 5 up move to start, risking losing it.

Hopefully all the above makes sense, I just think it is straightforward in theory, but the actuality of it in the real world as 'stuff happens' is very different. Good luck with it though.

[aphrodites] 21/6/2011 09:37

FEWDOLLARS

The bounce today is very encouraging and the 5 wave downwards could well have been completed.

The problem with today's bounce is that it is not on any volume.

However, the fact that this morning the price is trading above 36.52p as I post looks encouraging.

I would need to see the price close at around this level today to make it wave 1. The reason I wait for wave 3 is because sometimes wave 2 downwards can start the next downward spiral of 5 waves.

I would prefer to see wave 1 retrace to 38p followed by a small down wave 2 and then to buy into wave 3 as it moved above 38p on volume. My aim would be to look for the next 3/4p on a buy of 500k shares and to sell as it moves into wave 5.

All very hypothetical at this stage!

[sir rational] 21/6/2011 09:30

...and more promising...

[sir rational] 21/6/2011 09:17

Half year TU in a couple of days, to include news of Taylor Morrison completion on better terms than expected

[slytherin] 21/6/2011 09:15

Looking more promising

[homeboy35] 21/6/2011 08:50

Worth a "whoosh"

[fewdollarsmore] 21/6/2011 08:23

Aphro - I was wondering if you can see another wave pattern emerging and where you believe the entry point will be on the 3rd wave for you, you seem to have called it down well enough..

[aphrodites] 20/6/2011 23:46

FEWDOLLARS

Are you referring to the importance I place on buying in Wave 3 of a strong upward sequence of 5 and when there is large volume?