Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[r0l0b0l0] 07/2/2011 20:13

Remember that 'advise' from last year, "sell in may", laughed all the way to the bank .... and back

[naed] 07/2/2011 17:35

And the next one would be:- Sell in May and go away!

[kfp] 07/2/2011 16:16

wendsworth
You could find the old saying "buy on the rumour sell on the news applies ?

[sir rational] 07/2/2011 15:43

Going to be OK

[wendsworth] 07/2/2011 14:50

Sir Rational : There could well be an imminent RNS ..on the US operations ...possibly by way of update. After Friday's 7% rise that spike could well be a significant indicator . The share price turned so quickly after being in the red for the whole of the morning.

As to 'your 44p' ..if there is an RNS and the deal is a good one then I reckon the price will bounce up to the 50p level and re-establish iteslf in a 45 to 50p trading range.

Interesting times .

[sir rational] 07/2/2011 13:55

It's not difficult to imagine 44p turning into support...

[sir rational] 07/2/2011 13:43

Yep and if you look at the trades there were willing buyers, too.

BTW my GNG got going with high volume vs normal and +10% so far (only another 175% to go to reach something aproaching fair value). They have a habit of issuing a TU just after the Chinese New Year celebrations.

[wendsworth] 07/2/2011 13:40

sir rational : You're right. Clear indications that MMs are 'nervous' of a significant upward spike ..viz 10% + and don't want to be caught short. They shook out a few weak holders this a.m. ..but why one would be selling at current level with SO many postive straws in the wind for this recovery stock beats me?

[sir rational] 07/2/2011 13:32

That spike shows the direction we're headsing for any moment now...

[imastu pidgitaswell] 07/2/2011 13:28

Odd, wasn't it? Sell orders being pulled, certainly they're a bit jittery.

Shame...

[wendsworth] 07/2/2011 13:27

What's with the sudden spike UP ? News from 'across the pond' leaking !

[wendsworth] 07/2/2011 12:48

ludlowe: Did you take a look at IMI? They're UP 20p today . Much more 'juice in that lemon' in the run up to results on 3rd March.

[sir rational] 07/2/2011 11:12

My first target was 44p but I'm starting to think that is too low, given the TM deal. Various scenarios could pan out but if the most obvious happens - we have after all seen evidence of this leaked - and TM goes for $1b with no tax nasties, then we have to be looking @ 55p-60p.

Might take a few months to get there, but worth the wait.

[smurfy2001] 07/2/2011 10:29

Still have 46p target in sight with the US sale, would still be below a re-adjused NAV.

[gbh2] 07/2/2011 09:33

I expected a bit of a boost from Bellway's comments, still time I guess but ftse is looking toppy again imo.

[aphrodites] 07/2/2011 09:32

98village

It is interesting to see the valuation gains shown by St Modwen.

We owned 21 acres of land 10 miles Eastbourne on the south coast which was zoned brown. That means zoned for industrial development. A developer paid us an option which if it ever obtained residential planning permission it would pay us a further 75% of the uplift valuation. We estimated the land in 2007 with planning permission was worth a conservative £600k per acre, around £12m. That would have meant a payment to us of £7.5m. After two planning applications were rejected by Wealden District Council the developers went to appeal. They won the appeal to build 220 houses and some industrial units! That was in 2008 and coincided with the banking crash. Without the support of the bankers the developers would have gone bankrupt.

After much haggling with the developers and having to pay for an independent valuation ourselves, in November last year we agreed the value of the land with the developers and they paid us £2.75m!!!!!!!! That was after an opening offer of £250k for the lot!

As you will see the value of building land has gone through the floor and that is one reason why developers are grabbing every inch they can get their hands on at the present time to store in their land banks. But at the same time the value of the land they all wrote down in the books over the last 2 years will start to appreciate which is what we are starting to see with Mowden.

If, as I am certain, the UK economy is much healthier than the news media would have us all believe then the housing market is building up an enormous speculative bubble. This is one reason why interest rates need to rise and now. And the 1% rise which is presently being spoken about will hardly dent the surface of the inflation which is presently clouding the recovery in the economy.

This could all be very bad news for the building sector but the question is when?

[98viilage] 07/2/2011 08:44

St. Modwen Properties returns to profit, resumes dividends


Regeneration specialist St. Modwen Properties said net assets per share were up by 9% to 218p in the year to end-November 2010 (2009: 200p), with pretax profit at £37.5m compared to a loss of £119.4m the prior year. Property profits increased to £21.9m (2009: £7.6m). The rent roll increased by 5% to £46m with voids reduced to 12% (2009: 17%). There were valuation gains of £23m in the period (2009: loss of £122m). Dividends have been resumed with a final dividend of 2p per share declared, making a total distribution for the year of 3p (2009: nil). Anthony Glossop, Chairman, commented: "As we look forward, our financial position is sound; our business model will increasingly create value; our valuations are prudent and our recurring income is robust. We are also in a good position to seize attractive opportunities to add further to the hopper, our regional teams continue to find opportunities to generate value and we are seeing a gradual recovery of liquidity in our key markets." Bill Oliver, CEO, said: "Looking ahead, we are confident that St. Modwen's long-established strategy will once again give us the opportunity to provide sector-leading returns to shareholders. "We have a strong balance sheet and a landbank that is full of latent value. Our development pipeline for 2011 and beyond is strengthening and a number of significant schemes are being marshalled for delivery in future years. "Our asset management capability is proving invaluable in maintaining occupancy and rent levels, and we are confident that we will be able to continue with the positive progress in this area that we have demonstrated in the past two years. "As a result, we believe that we are well positioned to deliver profit and net asset value growth in 2011, despite the ongoing uncertain market conditions."

[98viilage] 07/2/2011 08:41

Housebuilder Bellway said in the half-year to end-January, it completed the sale of 2,332 homes, an increase of 85 units, compared to the prior year period. The average sales price was £168,000, up from £155,871. The group said this increase, whilst aided by greater price stability during 2010, is primarily a result of the change in product mix as it continues to change its focus away from apartments towards more traditional two storey homes. The operating margin is expected to exceed that achieved in the comparable period last year of 6.1% by almost 100 basis points. This improvement in margin should continue in the second six months as more recently acquired sites start to contribute to completions. Around £130m (2010 - £76m) has been spent on land in the period and whilst Bellway is no longer in a net cash position, having £7m of net debt at 31st January, it remains soundly financed, having recently renewed a bilateral facility of £150m with Barclays, one of its banking partners. This new facility expires in a variety of tranches up until December 2015 and currently provides the group with total facilities of £380m. Currently the Group has an order book of £402m (2010 - £390m), representing 2,343 homes, of which 1,847 should legally complete by 31st July 2011. The strength of this year's spring selling season should be more apparent, when the results for the six months to 31st January 2011 are announced on Wednesday 30th March.

[wendsworth] 07/2/2011 08:22

98village : Augurs well? Every little helps...as they say!

[98viilage] 07/2/2011 08:09

Good Bellway and St Mowden results this morning

[wendsworth] 06/2/2011 15:55

gbh2 and others: Good debate. Unlike many this is a very credible BB.

I too have only been a recent TW and QED holder.In late December bought TW at 29p and QED at 38p on the basis of NAV and that they both were/are/have 'bombed out' stock market values in sectors that are about to recover.

As for QED this Wednesaday's 3rd Quarter trading update might give a bit of a steer? Reckon the Laxey holding could bring positive pressure to bear on the current Directors.

[gbh2] 06/2/2011 09:20

I wasn't having a go at QED, I've only purchased them in recent months, I was simply indicating my degree of confidence in the potential outcome of TW.

QED is imo speculative and I'm willing to use it as a write of for cgt if its doesn't turn out to be what I hope for.