Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[sir rational] 01/2/2011 09:31

Market conditions are likely to remain challenging in Spain during 2011 and we are reviewing our strategy for the business and we expect to take a more aggressive approach to driving sales rates. This may result in a requirement for a further provision against the carrying value of our land assets in Spain, but any adjustment is not be expected to be material to the Group balance sheet.

So it sounds as if they are going to bite the bullet in Spain and build anyway, since they can sell them with a profit above construction cost but not at a price that gives a profit on land + construction cost.

[sir rational] 01/2/2011 09:22

Spanish developer Taylor Wimpey de Espnana sold 25% more properties than in 2009, resulting in nearly 100% of their completed and built property stock all over Spain being sold.

Demand or Towards the end of 2010, things picked up dramatically, with a 27% increase in enquiries compared to the previous year with enquiries primarily from customers looking to buy holiday and retirement homes in the areas of Marbella, Mallorca and Alicante.

Spain is still one of the most popular holiday and second home destinations in the world for Northern & Central Europeans and with a combination of property price reductions, decreased supply of property in the prime locations and a steady flow of serious purchasers enticing home buyers.

"Sadly there are areas in Spain which are and will continue to be negatively affected by a mass over supply of homes, however in prime locations such as Marbella in the Costa del Sol or Mallorca, popularity with Europeans to own holiday homes or even live overseas, will maintain a steady flow of interest and ultimately sales." says Marc Pritchard, Market Development Manager at Taylor Wimpey de Espana.

[barf2] 01/2/2011 09:01

Interesting to see that the majority of the media don't disclose the fact that it was better than forecast.That wouldn't be news would it? best to keep the gloom on 24/7.

[jibba_jabba] 01/2/2011 08:33

Nationwide HPI Actual -0.1% Forcast -0.3% Previous 0.4%

[jibba_jabba] 01/2/2011 08:30

Mortgage Approvals (09:30)

[imastu pidgitaswell] 01/2/2011 08:26

Promising...

[sequoia] 31/1/2011 21:07

strong finish on the DOW bodes well for tomorrow
seq

[sir rational] 31/1/2011 12:06

Not bad - old resistance turning into support

[shaws37] 31/1/2011 11:19

full metal jacket just now ;)

[jibba_jabba] 31/1/2011 11:16

Hamburger hill again..

[homeboy35] 31/1/2011 10:47

No ta mate

[sir rational] 31/1/2011 10:25

Similar here, breakeven is 37p (wish I'd tripled up @ 23p, was thinking about it but c'est la vie) and I'm confident of 44p or better before long ;-)

To be fair to Affro, I think he's a trader whereas I'm more of a value player but I guess LTBH is unfashionable these days lol

[imastu pidgitaswell] 31/1/2011 10:08

It's not greed that made me hang on, it was 'cos I bought them (on fundies) at 42p-44p+...

And also, I think the fundamentals picture has changed over the last few months, from the publication of the Government CSR and consequent clarity on the jobs picture for millions of public sector workers and homeowners, TW's and other builders's trading statements, TW's own refinancing, TW's deferred tax assets bringing net assets up to 55p+, and also the prospective and increasingly proximate sale of Taylor Morrison.

FWIW, I think therefore that the risk is to the upside and I would be suicidal if I had held on for that long only to miss out on an overnight leap of anything up to 10p on news of the TM sale. You pays your money and you takes your choice...

[sir rational] 31/1/2011 10:00

Judicious look at the fundies tells me it won't get near 30p

[aphrodites] 31/1/2011 09:22

The 5th wave retracement will not be complete until it hits 32.89p, or 33p for a round level.

This is the level at which the price moved up in the 5th leg of the rising price sequence to take it to 38p.

As I posted then, 40p was the level to watch but experience shows you never wait for the obvious. Take your profits and sit back and watch for the next move of 5.

In this case it was down and there was money to be made again from the break.

On the move up, the greedy were all looking for the price to break through the big 40p resistance level and hit the obvious chart point of 44p. Never the way to trade the markets in my opinion.

Now the greedy will be looking for the price to retrace to 24p.

Not me, I shall have closed my short position long before the big 30p level.

But be warned, if we break 30p we will be on our way to 24p!!!

[imastu pidgitaswell] 31/1/2011 08:56

Alright, nice retrace, support, resistance blah blah.

But enough, let's see it rising again - could have done with a better all round day on the markets.

Does TW. have business in Egypt? ;-)

[127tolmers] 30/1/2011 13:11

IC article. Apologies if this has been posted before but I don't recall it.


Housebuilders start year in good cheer
Created: 19 January 2011 Written by: Jonas Crosland
Shares in housebuilders have a habit of moving higher in the first quarter, and so far this year have remained true to form despite a sluggish housing market. Shares in Taylor Wimpey are leading the way, having risen by 20 per cent since the beginning of January. Around 8 per cent of this came in one day, after the group announced a better-than-expected performance, notably in North America, and lower-than-expected debt.

What's more, a successful sale of Taylor's US and Canadian business would leave it virtually debt free, and the shares still trade on a 22 per cent discount to net asset value.

Another decent performance has come from Bovis which will soon start paying dividends again, while Barratt Developments recently announced a significant improvement in margins. Persimmon also reported a strong performance and has drastically reduced debt levels.

Many housebuilders are building fewer units than last year, but average prices have risen because of a strategic switch in product mix away from flats to family houses. And while margins have in some cases improved, thanks to lower costs and moderating wage inflation, that progress could come under pressure as raw material prices start to rise. And in the case of Taylor Wimpey, the sale of the North American operation would mean saying goodbye to its best business unit (Canada) and the best recovery prospect - the US.

But the principal restraint on growth comes from the scarcity of affordable mortgages. Fixed-rate mortgages are already starting to disappear as pressure mounts on the Bank of England to counter inflation by increasing base rates. Moreover, potential buyers are wary of taking on fresh commitments in the face of rising unemployment and a continued squeeze on disposable income.


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IC VIEW:
Much depends on the crucial spring selling season, but the signs at the moment are not that encouraging. But for investors taking a longer-term view, shares in housebuilders are trading at a significant discount to net asset value, a gap that will narrow once the economic situation improves. But that may be some time yet. We still rate Persimmon as our preferred housebuilder (Buy, 398p 1 October 2010), with its combination of low debt, strong cash flow and solid order book.


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[127tolmers] 29/1/2011 14:17

Guardian article

"Housebuilders fall on consumer caution and Liberum downgrades

Housebuilders have come under pressure following a negative note from Liberum Capital, and worries about the UK economy's future performance.

This week's UK GDP figures showed a shock fall in the final quarter, and a key confidence survey today showed a sharp drop. On top of that a recent consumer survey by Liberum also showed more caution, with respondents worried about job security and possible interest rate rises. This has prompted the broker to cut its recommendation on Persimmon, down 16.4p to 402.5p, from hold to sell. It said:


We think that Persimmon's shares are most likely to underperform from here as their valuation is already comparatively high, and as we believe that the company is the most exposed to areas of high public sector employment. Its good balance sheet should be viewed positively but it has been much more reticent in buying land than anybody else, and it may still issue equity if it decided to embark on another round of consolidation.



Liberum has also trimmed its price targets on all the other housebuilders apart from Bovis Homes, 1.9p lower at 437.5p.

So Redrow is down 5.4p to 118.5p, Barratt Developments 3.9p to 92.9p and Bellway 23.5p to 614.5p."

No specific mention of TW. Has anyone seen the research?

[sequoia] 28/1/2011 22:50

Could close this small gap to start the next rise?

[smurfy2001] 28/1/2011 15:16

Given the potential news of the US/Canada sale, i'd be surprised of any bearish reversal.

[spennysimmo] 28/1/2011 15:16

Short term patterns are fine if you are day or swing trading however the longer term chart also helps to see the bigger picture. The share price recently broke out of resistance on a longterm downward channel. What was resistance is now being tested as support.