Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[sir rational] 02/2/2011 09:33

Good? Can't see it

[jibba_jabba] 02/2/2011 08:49

UK Construction PMI 0930 Forcast 49.8 Previous 49.1 again they expect it up.

[barf2] 02/2/2011 08:47

Same template being laid over todays trading.Same most days,starts well then tugged back down and we generally trail off through the day.

Let's break the pattern today eh?

[aphrodites] 02/2/2011 08:43

NewKid

But the big golf courses are still going bust or are finding it hard to attract the overseas players at the prices they are all still charging.

Glad we sold our house on the Aloha golf course four years ago. We can buy it back at half the price now!

Everyone is going to Turkey to play golf where there is much better value.

Must get back to my knitting needles.

[sequoia] 01/2/2011 23:10

Steady rise today, DOW looking good that`s how I like it,slowly slowly catchee monkey.
seq

[sir rational] 01/2/2011 18:53

Yes - mgt have decided they will make more by constructing & selling units rather than just selling the undeveloped plots - taking a hit on land values now in the a/cs but at least allowing the business to turn a profit on the land bank in due course by adding value.

[127tolmers] 01/2/2011 17:11

Mortgage lending collapses

Created: 1 February 2011 Written by: Chris Dillow

Mortgage activity has fallen to a record low. Bank of England figures today show that there was the largest net repayment of mortgage debt last month since records began in 1993. Over the last 12 months, net lending has averaged £679m - only one-fourteenth of the £9.56bn average we saw at the peak of the market. And there's no sign of any pick-up. Mortgage approvals, a lead indictor of lending in a few weeks time, fell to their lowest level since March 2009.

This is not because of any great rise in debt repayments. These are actually lower than they were in late 2008. Instead, it is gross lending that is weak, running at barely one-third what it was at its peak in 2007.



If you're an estate agent, this is frightening. But how worrying is it for the wider economy?

In one sense, it's not. Falling house prices - the likeliest effect of this lack of borrowing - are not disastrous for the economy. For every home-owner who feels worse off as prices fall, there's a potential buyer, or one hoping to trade up, who feels better off.

There are, however, two other problems. First, the inability to get a big mortgage is encouraging some would-be buyers to save more for a deposit. As there's no offsetting dis-saving, the net effect is to exacerbate the squeeze on consumer spending that's already happening because of rising inflation, low wage growth and increasing unemployment.

Secondly, insofar as falling lending is a sign of a reluctance to borrow, it is a signal that households are pessimistic about the future. Last week's survey by GfK/NOP, showing consumer confidence at its lowest level since March 2009, was not just idle jaw-wagging to someone with a clipboard. It is corroborated by real economic activity - or the lack thereof.

There's more bad news in today's figures. Other numbers from the Bank show that non-financial companies bank deposits fell in Q4. This means that, over the last 12 months, their cash holdings have fallen in real terms. This poses the danger that some firms will cease hiring or capital spending in an effort to stop the cash outflow.

So, is there any good news at all?

Three things.

One is that there has historically been a negative correlation between mortgage approvals and stock market returns in the following 12 months. This is because low confidence means low share prices and hence higher expected returns. It's possible, therefore, that the bad news about the economy contained in today's numbers is already embedded in share prices.

Secondly, there's one sense in which confidence is high - in foreigners' sentiment towards gilts. They bought a hefty £8bn of gilts in December, up from £3.1bn in November. This is a form of quantitative easing: foreign buying of gilts has similar effects to Bank of England buying.

Thirdly, a survey by research group Markit shows that manufacturing activity is at its highest level since their records began in 1992. Although the sector accounts for only around one-seventh of GDP, this proportion is now increasing after decades of decline. Maybe those estate agents should retrain as tool-makers.

[barf2] 01/2/2011 15:00

Thanks for clearing that up.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 01/2/2011 13:17

Depressing, albeit hopefully wrong chart:




Not wildly impressed by our golden cross either - not what I would call a powerful positive result...

[jibba_jabba] 01/2/2011 11:28

Construction Spending US 15:00 Forcast 0.1%

[shaws37] 01/2/2011 11:11

will we see 40's by 3rd march ? prob not.

[barf2] 01/2/2011 11:09

I splutter over my cup of tea every morning when the BBC announce with faux shock that another 23 civil servants will be getting made redundant in some obscure role and as a result old people will have to live on the street.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 01/2/2011 10:55

Mmmm, some patience required I guess.

The meejah is just out for the headlines on negativity at the moment - cuts, taxes, banks not lending, petrol prices, train fares, VAT rises, middle class squeeze, first time buyers etc.

Kind of ignores the 90%+ of people who have significant equity in their homes and who therefore are not affected by the banks' attitude - if you have 40% equity, you can get a historically low deal, simple as.

And as for the non-movers, there are many millions who are quietly benfitting from paying hundreds of pounds less each month on their mortgage, and who are still well up on the deal of every other cost cost going up, on account of their mortgage savings. But nobody ever mentions that - except Lord Young and he got the boot...

[sir rational] 01/2/2011 10:43

Judging by that reaction, TW. wants to go up, plenty of support on weakness

[imastu pidgitaswell] 01/2/2011 09:54

Well, duh, of course they fell - nobody could get out of their current houses in December cos of the snow...

Mortgage approvals - they're a factor certainly, but to suggest that they are the main driver of the share price of housebuilders is a bit of a stretch. Not all housebuyers are mortgage holders, and not all mortgage holders are seeking a new mortgage approval.

Still, the Battle of 35p rages on...

[jibba_jabba] 01/2/2011 09:40

Yep, they will have to reduce their expectations..

[sir rational] 01/2/2011 09:34

Jibba but worse than expectations

[sir rational] 01/2/2011 09:33

Mortgage approvals probably fell to 46,500 in December from 48,000 the previous month, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 19 economists.

[jibba_jabba] 01/2/2011 09:32

Final Mortgage Approvals Actual 43K Forcast 47K Previous 40K

Still better than last time..