Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[scars] 17/11/2010 11:36

The initial trigger here will be an improvement in the U.S.

[hiq] 17/11/2010 10:52

They made a profit of about £50m

[smurfy2001] 17/11/2010 10:47

According to their last statement, they made a profit of £7.5m.

[hiq] 17/11/2010 10:44

So Tempus is saying there's 60p of assets on sale for 25p

[hiq] 17/11/2010 10:42

There are other ways to monetise the value of the NA business without selling it off or listing it separately

[hiq] 17/11/2010 10:36

Because that scenario is unlikely.

TW. should now stabilise and go back up to the 40s quite soon - the doubts have now been removed.

[scars] 17/11/2010 10:33

All depends on what happens with Ireland today!

[chairman2] 17/11/2010 10:28

The trouble with the shares of the living dead
is shares are option money on a five year plus view.

But if you can buy them at sub 30p in 18 months time
why hold, let alone buy, them now?

[imastu pidgitaswell] 17/11/2010 09:39

That's a pretty good summary by The Times bloke. It's just too soon to assess profitability on an ongoing basis.

What I would stress is that volumes have fallen off a cliff, remain historically very low, and if (big if) banks do relent and having rebuilt their capital from the bandit money they're making from QE (paying sod-all, lending at a massive margin) they then start to seek more business by being more realistic with what they will lend and who to, then on the higher volumes, the proftability will increase substantially.

I personally don't see the need to sell the US business - while it would be nice to see the bottom line profit improve through much lower interest payments, now is not the time to be selling it - they are stable financially now and they could get twice or three times as much for the US business in a couple of years.

In the meantime, yes, value it compared with net tangible assets and throw in the deferred tax losses part as well, on the basis they will use those losses when they make enough profits after interest to do so.

[lyntwyn] 17/11/2010 08:56

Setting sights on a benign 2011

Martin Waller: Tempus,Times
Taylor Wimpey

If Pete Redfern, the chief executive of Taylor Wimpey, claims he is looking forward to 2011, then he must be one of the few people in housebuilding who is. The same constraints are there for all: a lack of confidence among consumers to take on commitments such as a new home and a lack of mortgages to pay for it.

But by comparison with 2008, for example, next year for Taylor Wimpey could, indeed, prove quite benign. The company, the product of the 2007 merger between Taylor Woodrow and George Wimpey, was saddled with £1.57 billion of debt and in danger of breaching banking covenants. It raised £510 million in April 2009 and reached a deal with its banks soon afterwards, but the legacy of that debt is still with it, in the form of £700 million of outstanding bonds.

Yesterday the company announced a new £950 million banking facility. This is conditional on the raising of another £350 million in bonds. Taylor Wimpey will now negotiate with bondholders, who either will be paid off, this to be funded by the new facility, or choose to take more bonds.

One senses the market has failed, or possibly given up trying, to get a handle on events here. Yesterday's statement said pre-tax profits would be at the upper end of expectations, but in the market these range from a barely credible £10 million loss from someone who has presumably not updated the figures for a while to perhaps £55 million in pre-tax profits.

This will come from a UK business building about 10,000 units and making £100 million or above as the operating level, with 2010's production fully sold, and a US and Canadian side, building 4,500 units, making perhaps £70 million.

All this is, of course, before that thumping interest bill. The US operation will probably be sold a couple of years down the line, assuming that a buyer can be found even then, which would make a huge impact on borrowings. This year's profits are meaningless in terms of any price-earnings multiple, so analysts are shooting at some apparently random discounts to net assets to achieve some sort of valuation. Net assets should be about 45p at the year-end, with the potential of another 15p a share in deferred tax from earlier asset write-offs.

Taylor Wimpey's share price is seemingly marooned below 30p, which makes little sense in terms of that potential NAV. Given the uncertainties in the sector, immediate progress could be limited. But worth tucking away for the long term.

[spennysimmo] 17/11/2010 08:53

Maybe they will

[smurfy2001] 17/11/2010 08:50

They should list the American unit, it's worth an estimated $1bn, that would clear the debt and we'd still enjoy upside in the American market in future.

[barf2] 17/11/2010 08:45

Peersonally I'd be inclined to think the banks have lent on them a tad and said 'you need to raise £350m and how you do it is up to you. For example you might want to offload that North American stuff'

'but we could do a bond or something instead as we don't want to put the American bit up for sale as a forced sale'

'Ok, do whatever you need to do'

'How about we say we've got things sorted and that America/Canada is doing well and that we might consider an offer down the road for the right price? how would that be?'

'Whatever,just get something done'

[smurfy2001] 17/11/2010 08:36

Sounds like BS to me. The Canadian business is doing well. What if they were in China, Austrialia, India for example? Would they not be doing well?



Sources said the firm believed housebuilding worked best as a local business, with few cost-cutting and other benefits arising from being international in scope.

[hiq] 17/11/2010 07:29

TAYLOR Wimpey will look to sell its US operations when market conditions improve, it emerged yesterday as the housebuilder predicted profits would hit the top end of City forecasts.


Chief executive Peter Redfern said they did not expect to be "long-term holders" of the North American business but there would be "no imminent change".

Sources said the firm believed housebuilding worked best as a local business, with few cost-cutting and other benefits arising from being international in scope.

Wimpey is close to completing a £950 million debt refinancing featuring new agreements with its banks giving more flexibility, provided the group can raise £350 million from the bond markets.

[denjon] 17/11/2010 06:29

Investment Column: BHP will score despite hat-trick of failures
JD Sports Fashion; Taylor Wimpey

Edited by David Prosser
Wednesday, 17 November 2010



Taylor Wimpey

Our view: Buy

Share price: 24.82p (-0.13p)

Britain's housing market is a bombed-out disaster zone, right? So why do anything other than dump the shares of housebuilders? Well, one reason is that the long-term fundamentals for housing are very strong: Britain has a rising population, more people living alone, and a very limited supply of new housing stock. Another plus is that,following some painful restructuring, Britain's housebuilders are in better shape than you might expect.

Taylor Wimpey said yesterday that its profits for 2010 were likely to come in towards the top end of analysts' expectations – forecasts have ranged from a loss of £10m to a profit of £55m, with consensus at £23m.

Even better, the company has made further progress on restructuring its debt, with terms agreed on bank borrowing of £950m, and restrictions on its ability to buy new land having been lifted. The group's North American business continues to struggle and Taylor Wimpey is keen to sell it. Potential buyers are thin on the ground, however, and the unit is likely to continue to hold back the company.

Against that, the shares are trading at about a 50 per cent discount to net asset value, and are fairly priced compared to the rest of the sector. Do not expect stellar performance in 2011, when lack of mortgage availability will continue to hold back the market, but if you are in for the long term, Taylor Wimpey is a buy.

[shaws37] 16/11/2010 16:13

wow, it could go bust. mwhahahahah

[binladin] 16/11/2010 16:11

could go bust...........

[shaws37] 16/11/2010 16:01

nose diving, stuck in this share, :-(

[hiq] 16/11/2010 15:46

Still up on a down day

[smurfy2001] 16/11/2010 14:11

imastu - thanks, missed the pension bit