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[sunshine today] 02/5/2022 18:06

mercedes2 May '22 - 17:06 - 6487 of 6488
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Sun
Sorry but you are sprouting rubbish, people with a life span longer than a fly, would think 5.5% a good deal.
I know its boring,but I was growing half a dozen different businesses when rates hit 17% and we all still prospered !!!!

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Lol

That’s why everyone of that age says it crippled them .!!!

[smidge21] 02/5/2022 17:29

Re a 7.5% 30y.Yield curve analysis will highlight that while front end yields have moved lower over past three decades, the yield curve has gyrated through a stable range. This implies that a sustained yield of 7.5 % requires a base rate of nearly 6%. Such a rate would bankrupt many - including HMG (manifest through a currency crisis), and is far higher than BoE stress tests anticipate. In other words, forecasts of long duration yields MUST begin with plausible short rate projections.

[mercedes] 02/5/2022 17:06

Sun
Sorry but you are sprouting rubbish, people with a life span longer than a fly, would think 5.5% a good deal.
I know its boring,but I was growing half a dozen different businesses when rates hit 17% and we all still prospered !!!!

[sikhthetech] 02/5/2022 14:57

Jugears

"strange an estate agent I have never hears of would say that, my best friend of 50 years is an estate agent & said only this morning that we are in a sellers market at the moment "


You have to be very naive to use what a local estate agent, local sold boards etc as a gauge for what is happening in the UK or international property market.

Prior to the 2007 property crash, I heard similar novice views, whilst I was suggesting the property market was about to crash and suggested 30-40% price drop. Prices don't drop at same rate across all towns.


Remember even the govn of Blair/Brown promises of end to 'boom and bust'.
What happened???

[sunshine today] 02/5/2022 14:38

Now add on 2% over the next few months.

7.5% 30 year is on its way.

[sunshine today] 02/5/2022 06:53

Mortgage refinance demand plunges 60%, as rates hit their highest level since 2018.

[sunshine today] 02/5/2022 06:48

USA, ( leads the U.K. by 6-9 months.)

Today's national 30-year mortgage rate trends

For today, Monday, May 02, 2022, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is 5.42%, up 13 basis points from a week ago. If you're looking to refinance your current loan, the national 30-year refinance rate is 5.42%, up 16 basis points over the last seven days.


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That is double the rate of 18 months ago, and will kill the market dead over the next six months.

5.5% mortgage rates in the U.K. will wipe 40% of U.K. prices going forward.

Stamp duty , fees, searches,plus general moving costs, tip 15% of the value of a large house value, down the drain, on the day you complete your purchase.

Most can stomach that in a boom,in a bust, the buyer wants 30% off for starters.

[wfl1970] 01/5/2022 09:40

"Moreover, assuming that labour market conditions remain strong, the Bank of England is likely to raise interest rates further, which will also exert a drag on the market if this feeds through to mortgage rates,” he added.

Jeremy Leaf, a former RICS residential chairman, is among a number of estate agents who report that increasingly stretched affordability is starting to have an impact."

[ghhghh] 30/4/2022 08:40

All broker forecasts are guestimates and only as good as the individual analyst.

The interesting point is that their PT is in line with consensus, hence the 846p Downside indicates just how much bad new is now factored in.

[ghhghh] 29/4/2022 14:01

Jefferies latest sector note, 22nd April, has Vistry at 1,360p PT, Downside 846p (assumes 25% volume decline/20% price decline), Upside 1,900p.

I just bt at 835p!

They have TW at 186p, Downside 117p Upside 271p

[ghhghh] 29/4/2022 14:01

Jefferies latest sector note, 22nd April, has 1,360p PT, Downside 846p (assumes 25% volume decline/20% price decline), Upside 1,900p.

I just bt at 845p!

They have TW at 186p, Downside 117p Upside 271p

[fenners66] 29/4/2022 10:14

I see this years house price crash , is going exceptionally well.
From the DM

"House prices rise another 12% in April despite cost of living pressures as TWO IN FIVE Britons are looking to move home

Average house prices rose by £29,000 in the last year to new record of £267,620
April marks 11th consecutive month of double-digit price growth
38% of Britons said they were either moving or considering a move last month"

[beckers2008] 29/4/2022 09:26

29 Apr '22 - 08:49 - 6472 of 6472

Buybadly,

Why haven't you posted this on the AZN BB, as we all know you are just trying to help!
Lol!, Just Lol!

[buywell3] 29/4/2022 08:49

Have you got a wax problem ?

If not these might help

[jugears] 28/4/2022 20:52

I didn't have any in the 8o'S except a mobile phone the size of a brick that was free with my fax machine.

[sikhthetech] 28/4/2022 19:52

BTW, Jugears
You say you paid £2k for your 1st fax machine.
How much did you pay for pc, printer, laptop, broadnand, smartphone in 1980???

Times and technology have changed. Nowadays everyone, Inc kids have phones, tablets etc..

[sikhthetech] 28/4/2022 19:12

Jugears,

It doesn't matter if interest rates were 15% many years ago.
It is the % increase in interest rates which impact the interest.

If homebuyers can afford to buy at 10% and interest rates rise to 15%, the rise is 50%. Whereas now a rise from 2% to 6% is 300% increase. That's a huge increase, something which you don't seem to understand!!!


In the 80s/90s most mortgages were at 3-4x single income, now they can be 4-5x joint income. It's easier to find additional exp when it's based on single income as the partner can go to work.

Nowadays both are usually working and mortgages are at around 4-5x joint income, so where will they find the extra??


Plus you have tax rises, energy bill rises etc on top.


The interest rate rises, energy price rises impact businesses more as they don't have energy price caps. Therefore, making goods even more expensive.

The point is more of income is spent on mortgage than was previously.

[25guilderbag] 28/4/2022 18:17

I bought my first home in 1993 for 60k. Deposit was 1 x salary (£15,000), leaving a mortgage of 3 x salary.Today the same house is 600kI would need a deposit of 6 x salary (£25,000 which would be equivalent wage for my job at the time) and require a mortgage 18 x salary.Things are not the same as they used to be.

[jugears] 28/4/2022 15:05

What do you think happened when interest rates hit 15%? how do you think we managed when interest rates were 6-8% & washing machines were 3 months wages, I paid nearly 2k for my first Fax machine in 1980!, life is no more expensive now than its ever been, most mortgages are fixed rate so wont effect the majority of people anyway& i.m sure for every 1st time buyer that cant afford one of the very few new houses being built there will be plenty more that can, you have to remember that since the financial crisis the amount of wealth in the uk has increased 10 fold, you didn't see many people going out paying cash for houses prior to the financial crisis now it is very common. the world has changed since the last recession ( not that it had any negative effect on my business,in fact just the opposite like all the past recessions I've been through) people have become more careful with debt just like a lot of companies have.
Unfortunately putting interest rates up to 10% will not stop inflation. Inflation will only end when supply meets demand & we are a long long way from that, a loss of 3 months production during covid & many companies lost more than that, will take up to 10 years to fulfill, that's why we are so short of houses. when the financial crisis hit there was already a huge glut of houses( built on spec)on the market. currently there is less than 10% of that volume avaliable & most already sold, several hb's have told me that some larger sites (some not even started yet)have waiting lists to buy 2/3 bedroom houses, one site could be 5 years before they are built, my niece has been waiting over 3 years! All that higher rates are doing is making it harder for the lower paid to buy houses because landlords & those with money will snap just continue to snap up all of the available houses because they can afford to. imo the government & BoE are going to have to play the inflation game very very carefully

[25guilderbag] 28/4/2022 13:49

The important bit is interest rate expected to rise a further 2.5%. What will happen when mortgage rates are 4% plus.?What about lending criteria, when the banks 'what if' has to consider rates of 6-7%. How will that affect mortgage values being offered?