Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[25guilderbag] 28/4/2022 13:00

Rishi Sunak is said to have warned his ministerial colleagues that Britain's homeowners could see their mortgage payments rise by more than £1,000 a year.The chancellor reportedly used this week's cabinet meeting about the cost of living crisis that interest rates are set to rise by 2.5 per cent in the year ahead. - Today's Independent

[ftir1] 28/4/2022 12:44

Just keep watching TW. share price fall then.

[jugears] 28/4/2022 12:32

sell them now & payy capital gains on the 90p profit the majority of my shares have made & have less money to buy them back when & if they ever go below £1.00, your an even bigger c--t than I though & extremely bloody stupid as well, but you are nearly right, every so often you do get these small opportunities to top up your investments for a rainy day because the markets & particularly TW shares are only being manipulated down on what might happen & at the moment it is only might! but we all no how quick they recover as well.

[ftir1] 28/4/2022 09:41

You're all offered these short opportunities to sell as the TW. share price continues it's journey south. Just sell now and buy them back (plus more) when they're in double digits. It's actually very simple, when you have a flexible approach to investing.

[fenners66] 28/4/2022 09:07

What is a recession ?
2 Consecutive quarters of negative growth.

Didn't we get that in 2020?
What happened to house prices in 2020?

Employment is currently at record levels with vacancies similar.
So would a "recession" return employment to as low as ...........normal ?

[jugears] 28/4/2022 08:42

I think thereare some very young inexperienced investors on here that have never seen normal interest rates & certainly haven't seen a recession what happend in the financial crisis, nothing is the answer, Tw were not making loses they were making money but had a 1 billion pound debt from stupidly merging with Taylor Woodrow, from day one of the financial crisis they started paying of there debt & increased profits year on year & this is when house prices supposedly fell 10/15% (house prices since have gone up by 50-100%)in the financial crisis there were reports of sites laying doormant & mothballed for years in reality there were very few, before the financial crisis most sites were built on spec since then the majority are sold before they are built, any world down turn will see material & labour prices tumble & so will interest rates imo. For now whilst demand is there we will just have to grin & bare higher prices & higher interest rates.
GhhGhh totally agree on house prices may be a dip of 5% my general feeling is prices will at worst stabalise but more likely to continue to go up steadily, despite rate rises & inflation we are just not even coming close to building enough houses, for every one person that cant afford a house there are up to 10 that can, thats how bad the housing market is.

[ghhghh] 28/4/2022 08:40

If the HBs were trading at 5 year highs, then I would agree with all the bears. However share prices are back to 2016 levels despite a c. 40% increase in NAV per share and much improved finances - net cash versus net debt.

Patently the HBs are already factoring in a significant house price fall and margin squeeze

This debate should be about how much potential bad news is now discounted.

My view is that interest rates will not rise as far as some are fearing since cost of living crisis is doing the CBs job for them. Low interest rates obviously support higher house prices.

And WFH is a significant price support, especially for anyone commuting.

Hence, barring a stock market crash, I don't see a major house price correction, maybe 3-5% pa, not 10-20%. The HBs who are focused on upmarket properties (such as Redrow) should be the most resilient

And re a stock market crash, everything hinges on whether CBs can unleash more QE without blowing up the bond market. ie inflation does not become embedded.

[ghhghh] 28/4/2022 07:42

buywell

Mr Market does NOT make mistakes regarding FTSE100 or very BIG Cap listed companies

What about two years ago when BP was under 190p and Shell under 900p!! Every fool knows that oil is cyclical since self correcting. The cure for low oil price is low oil price since supply declines.

Mr Market is a dozy cowardly sheep, not Einstein!

[beckers2008] 28/4/2022 00:21

BuyBadly,

That didn't take you long did it!
Not on the AZN BB anymore, your posting history is mostly negative whilst always advising your advisory help, lol!

The housing market can do well in a high inflationary environment.

Double digits!
I think you're getting carried away. Take a look at the currency analysts that are now forecasting the BOE will reign in the interest rate rises.
It is rare that the currency markets are wrong and that positions your theory credibility into question?

I know you mean well! but dyor.

[buywell3] 28/4/2022 00:03

buywell was helped long ago by Mr Ashley James so here is a heads up on the above post

This is what Mr Market thinks

FTNMX501010 --- FTSE 350 Construction & Building Materials Technical Analysis

Summary:
STRONG SELL
Moving Averages: STRONG SELL --------- Buy(2) Sell (10)
Technical Indicators:STRONG SELL ----- Buy(0) Sell (10)


Do you rampers really think you know more than Mr Market ?

buywell lets it be a guide to decision making and suggests you do too

Very very occasionaly does Mr Market make mistakes , and when it does it is usually on single small cap stocks --- this from many many years of watching and waiting.

Mr Market does NOT make mistakes regarding FTSE100 or very BIG Cap listed companies

dyor

[buywell3] 27/4/2022 23:42

The important takeaway is that TW. is not falling alone

All the rest of the Housebuilding/Construction Sector is falling in synch

buywell posits :

It is unwise to go against a Sector Macro when inflation/costs are predicted to carry on rising in double digits , and interest rates look set to double from recent historical lows or rise even higher over the next 2 years

dyor

[beckers2008] 27/4/2022 23:27

Jugears,
Completey agree that the trolls intensify their presence when the share price is not performing well. Don't see them on AZN anymore!

I thought we were at the bottom at 125.8p but I was wrong, I called it but was mistaken.

I am still long TW. whom imho is undervalued, because there is no way there is going to be a recession in the UK and I believe the BOE will not raise rates in May.
It seems Blackrock have confidence in TW. who have increased their holding and also a NED buying recently.
But I would say that wouldn't I, as I am long!

[gaygay3] 27/4/2022 22:26

Today’s loss could be because a article in the telegraph that HP will go down by 5% and mortgages will double to about 3.8% so these could be on the way To £1 hope not all HB are doing well at the mo but markets look to the future

[ftir1] 27/4/2022 22:11

Hmmm... You also repeat the same thing, day in day out. Everyone can make their own mind up about you. Most people have some dignity and respect for others. You show signs of being quite a narcissistic person.

[ftir1] 27/4/2022 20:23

Jugears, the problem seems to be that you haven't got any manners. Not on here anyway! Why do you feel it necessary to call people names and swear at them just because they have a different opinion? It's just not acceptable on here or anywhere. You come across as a nasty thug, or a playground bully, who would rather thump somebody first, than have a sensible civilised conversation. All this life you've had, hasn't taught you some common courtesy and respect. I don't suffer fools lightly, but I don't call them c*nts.

[jugears] 27/4/2022 18:07

sikh, ok apart from the 100K I am talking paper profits I didn't realize I would need to so specific, What price did you buy & sell your TW shares at,I assume you bought at 98p or did you get caught out & are still waiting lol.

Where has all the talk of recession come from anyway, have I missed something ?,I have not spoke to one company this year that isn't busy every sector that my old company worked (circa 20 sectors) from construction, retail, leisure, boats, caravans, motor homes etc etc are working to full capacity . we are now quoting lead times of 20 weeks for work. things may start to slow down at some point but currently I have never seen so much work around & I don't think this is down to just covid, a lot of companies held off spending money until Brexit had been sorted. I have always said that the city & the uk government haven't got a clue what goes on outside of London, before covid I set up a transport business with my nephew with 3 vehicles, we now have 45 & planning to increase this further this year if we can get the vehicles & drivers.

[gaygay3] 27/4/2022 17:43

House prices set to fall next year plus mortgage rates to double

[uhound] 27/4/2022 17:34

Sikhthetec, I think your right about JUGEARS - I bet his staff loved him!

Clearly can't handle a difference of opinion or see his beloved long term holdings falling.

The fact he's on here so much leads me to think perhaps he is house bound and on his computer all day long. Maybe he needs a hobby?

I'm all for hearing others opinions, I may pick up something I have overlooked.

I can't predict the future like JUGEARS and know for certain what's going to happen, but that's fine, investing in the markets is just a hobby for me.

If you a relaint on stock market gains to build wealth for the future, best give your money over to a professional to manage. Otherwise when the going gets tough you will turn into JUGEARS!

[sunshine today] 27/4/2022 16:43

US Pending Home Sales Tumble For 5th Straight Month As Rates Soar, Mortgage Apps Plunge

Tyler Durden's Photo
BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, APR 27, 2022 - 03:06 PM

[essentialinvestor] 27/4/2022 16:39

We are bordering on recession now.

Inflation will lead to demand destruction, it's already happening.

By the end of this year, may be toward the end of Q3, it's interest rate cuts
that will be on discussion. The current rates cycle will be both shallow and short.

[sunshine today] 27/4/2022 16:36

When it costs 15% in fees and duty to buy a house, and the value of that said house is falling in value, it will not take long to halve.

Watch this space.

Don’t rule out 6% mortgage rate.