Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[jugears] 12/7/2021 12:09

There is always if & buts Lol, My guess is we may be up to 2% rates in say 10 years time, probably very unlikely though.
when have house prices fallen for 30 years plus in the last 50 years in the uk?, House prices go up & down its a cylical market, this has happened every 10-15 years for as long as I can remember, house prices peak then they fall then they peak at a much higher price, then they fall & peak at a much much higher price again .History repeats itself & every time house prices in the uk peak much higher than before because we do not build enough in this country to meet demand & its never going to change, It doesn't really bother me if we have a housing correction or slump, Tw will just bounce back bigger & stronger than before, Look at all the companies in other sectors that have come & gone over the years due to recession & look how many recessions the 4 main large house builders have survived & how quickly they all recover, Just remember TW did not have 1billion plus of debt due to the financial crisis this was due to taking on Taylor Woodrow homes at a very bad time, Tw actually continued to increase profits throughout the last housing market crash !

[sunshine today] 12/7/2021 11:52

Jugears,

Let me show you how and why rates could hit 5% - 15%.

If at any stage, confidence is lost, in paper money, anywhere in the world, it could spread like wildfire.

Long term everything is against house prices going higher, don’t forget history shows us house prices can fall for spells of 30 years plus.

[jugears] 12/7/2021 11:36

jimarilo, not all sites were closed in the 80's when interest rates went up !, I seem to only remember one that we were on, Putting interest rates up to 1.5% now would be the equivalent of the 15% back then, I just don't see it happening, Interest rates below 1% will be here for a very very long time, Large hb's order materials & fix price a long time in front & the large merchants are giving them preference over material supplies to smaller users. Upety10 I agree interest rates will go up, Very Very slowly .01% at a time, the days of quarter & half percent risers wont return for many years we are a world used to low interest rates, know government or central/European bank will want to jeopardise particularly whilst covid is still a threat there economy.
There does seem to be a lot of people liking there own posts today, How Sad!

[up10] 12/7/2021 09:22

TW. for all it's recent ups and downs, will eventually break down through £1.60 and head much lower in the short/medium term.

The ONLY way interest rates are going is UP.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 12/7/2021 09:06

Right.

So double digit interest rates of the 1980s are applicable to the situation right now where there is a temporary imbalance between supply (due to pandemic production reductions) and demand?

And when those production decisions are changed and (as happens in a free market) supply increases, the prices will, er, do what?

And in the meantime, all housebuilders, everywhere, will just stop building?

"Can't see many homes being built currently"

Do you ever think before you write?

[jimarilo] 12/7/2021 09:01

Plywood was an example, but is widely used particularly in timber frame load bearing walls and flooring

OSB sterling board is also widely used in timber frame construction and has seen similar price hikes

[jimarilo] 12/7/2021 08:56

I beg to differ.....I was in volume building developments as a sub-contractor in the 1980's when all site gates were closed in the late 80's, due to extreme high interest rates

Extreme high costs can not always be passed on to the customer, there are limits, whether it be interest rates or material costs

The price of concrete blocks has doubled and there is limited availability

No one looks at history these days

"You don’t just stop building houses lol"

[imastu pidgitaswell] 12/7/2021 08:19

"Can't see many homes being built currently"

I just don't have the words...

Actually, on a quick review of posting history, I do have the words - clueless moron.

[jugears] 12/7/2021 08:18

Not much plywood in new houses & Tw & Psn are building houses like there is know tomorrow.At long last people are seeing better value than London around the whole of the country.

[cupra kid] 12/7/2021 08:14

Extra material costs will be offset to the customer. Many HB's have already stipulated that the average sell price has risen to negate the material costs. You don't just stop building houses lol.

[jimarilo] 12/7/2021 08:07

Can't see many homes being built currently, as the price of materials has gone through the roof

Not only that supply is very weak

example.......sheet of 18mm ply £40........900x500 basic council style concrete slab £20

[karv1] 12/7/2021 07:41

I would say the opposite, many people in London want to sell their very overpriced properties to go to the home counties where they can buy larger detached houses with big gardens for less than their small properties in London pushing up the southeast prices then this will push other locations up as people in the southeast then look for cheaper places further afield.

[sikhthetech] 11/7/2021 19:00

According to The Telegraph Prime London prices down 13.5%. What happens in London usually ripples out over time.

[baracuda2] 09/7/2021 13:56

I sold some of my other shares yesterday and bought more, great timing. Loads of upside here

[up10] 09/7/2021 13:56

LOL

It can also be argued that its now being manipulated up for KNOW reason!

LOL

[jugears] 09/7/2021 13:42

Should have bought yesterday when the share price was manipulated down for know reason!

[ste1984] 09/7/2021 12:13

I have just bought in today. TW have purchased much more land recently whilst it was slightly cheaper during the covid period. Lots of people excited to get on the property ladder now Covid is winding down. Lots of these people with surprisingly much more money too due to being unable to spend it. Lots of positive comments coming from TW. Dividends being paid again and construction being outdoors was able to start up much earlier than other business. What's not to love?

[sikhthetech] 08/7/2021 18:00

Jugears
"I agree that first time buyers don't stand a chance these days"

You need first time buyers to keep the housing chain going...

As to interest rates not going beyond 1% before end of decade, ie over the next 8.5yrs is clearly delusional...

You do know that interest rates are not only for housing market, don't you??

[jugears] 08/7/2021 17:43

Exactly all looking very good IMO hence the reason I added a few to play with today, Stamp duty cut has made little impact most people were holding off buying property purely due to the Brexit indisition, covid has just helped people decide to move even more & I do not consider land in this country to be cheap it bloody extortionate.
I have seen at least 4 housing market crashes in my life usually every 10-15 years, all starting with high interest rates, we will without doubt see many more in the future but IMO interest rates will need to be significantly higher. they can't go up it would do to much damage but if they don't house prices could easily add 25% in the next 18 months, Housing crashes are not necessarily bad Tw will continue building houses & continue making profits just as it did at the start of the financial crisis, then it had over 1 billion pounds of debt that it still managed to pay of & increase profits year on year,Although Hb's are cylical they make money & recover very quickly from a down turn, unlike a lot of companies that never make a profit & there are plenty of those about. 99% of companies with 1 billion of debt would have gone into administration as an easy way out during the financial crisis but not Tw. Management, IMO they have done an excellent job of turning this company round whilst many are still hugely in debt!!!!!

[up10] 08/7/2021 17:38

In a housing bubble, it's difficult for many people to imagine anything changing (as they misperceive ever increasing prices as positive), but change it will and it can happen quite abruptly.

Don't be fooled, the BOE won't hesitate to increase interest rates to calm any inflationary pressures.

[sunshine today] 08/7/2021 17:30

“The likelihood of interest rates going back to 8% is very remote,”


The reason you felt fine, buying the shares today. !!


You have had everything going your way



Record low interest rates.

Government help to buy

The bank of mum and dad

Stamp duty cut

World awash with cash pushing up asset prices.

Cheap historic land

Stable wage and material prices.

Generation borrow

Planning policies to limit supply

Buoyant economic conditions

COVID

Immigration

Rising living standards.

[karv1] 08/7/2021 17:27

It is a very simple supply v demand people will always want to own their own home, in the short term house prices will go up and down, but these companies are not going to be going anywhere. The stock will go up and down it as safe as houses.

[sikhthetech] 08/7/2021 17:05

ST
You have market risk
You have sector risk
You have company risk.


Exactly. A Housing market/HBs backed by dodgy govn support, which are coming to an end.

Together with World house prices on the edge.

Toxic H2B, which I believe will contribute to the next financial crisis.