Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[jugears] 01/10/2020 13:56

Always summat to worry about in sikhs life Lol

[sikhthetech] 01/10/2020 13:50

DisneyDonald,

What do you think will happen to the stockmarket if 2 superpowers go to war?

Do you think Ftse 100 HBs/Banks/Oil companies are immune if the stockmarket crashes?


From today:

China’s sabre-rattling over Taiwan rises as US tensions grow

[gbh2] 01/10/2020 13:44

One cannot achieve market manipulation by posting on advfn, only a naive fool would think otherwise :)

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 01/10/2020 13:34

Certainly one or two ( or one with several accounts ) agenda posters here, one who has now confirmed that they have apparently been short here whilst filing the board with negative diatribe for months.Oh hold on, isn't that market manipulation.LOL.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 01/10/2020 13:31

But of course you did, and when it hits £2+ you will tell everyone how you filled your boots sub £1.

[sikhthetech] 01/10/2020 13:22

DD
and you've ignored US Presidential Election also within the next few weeks.. Uncertainty as to who will win.

China - US tensions over Taiwan. A war between these 2 super powers will crash the stockmarkets..

Similar re China tensions with India, Australia...

uncertainty..


China’s sabre-rattling over Taiwan rises as US tensions grow

[sikhthetech] 01/10/2020 13:17

disneydonald,

Why didn't you post that 6 months ago, when I originally started mentioning the uncertain events coming together in such a short space of time, ie within Qtr. 4

It's always easier to post in hindsight, isn't it?. ;-)

Brexit:
The markets went up in Jan because Boris got approval from Parliament, so the markets were expecting a deal within months. Now the uncertainty still exists and we may end up with a 'no deal' brexit.
It's Qtr4 and there's still no certainty over which way Brexit will go.

Furlough ending.
It's Qtr 4 and there's still millions on furlough. Still uncertainty, although the recent emergency update by the Chancellor may help. Why do you think the Chancellor announced an Emergency update.

Mortgage Pay hols.
We should find out next month, how many still have mortgage pay hols and how many are likely to default.
Again uncertainty.

Evictions.
Tenants have been able to remain in the property without paying any rent. How many face eviction. Uncertainty as to how many face eviction and how many Btl Investors will end up selling their properties due to the difficulty. Given the legal requirements over eviction notices, we won't know for a few months.

Vaccine.
It's Qtr 4 and still no certainty over when a vaccine WILL be available and how the govn will administer it. They can't vaccinate 60m people in 1 day!!!


Lack of certainty. It's Qtr 4, by the way...
The markets like clarity.


and
"Vaccine, every chance that one will be available in a few months. "
" There is every chance of a %50 appreciation by early next year."

Yes, current uncertainties might become knowns, next year. By my calendar that is not Q4, Sept-Dec is it?

;-)

[sikhthetech] 01/10/2020 13:05

Jug,

"you did not know at £1.70 where the share price was going or how far down"

Yes I did. But you knew that already, didn't you? Read the posts:
I don't normally short but tblob2 challenged me, so I shorted at 170p


sikhthetech - 04 Jun 2020 - 16:31:51 - 27461 of 27843 Taylor Wimpey - TW.
"I've modified the house to meet our long term requirements."

So you recently bought a house and then quickly modified to meet your long term requirements... lol

Most people who downsize buy a house which meets their long term requirements...

"why are you posting on here?"
Why are you posting here?

Anyway, given your comments... I don't normally short but I have now taken a short position here..

Keep buying tlobs2... let's see what happens towards end of the year.




I said reaching 100p and have consistently mentioned Q4, which starts today, doesn't it?

sikhthetech17 Apr '20 - 13:51 - 26933 of 27842 Edit
Jug
"this has more chance of reaching £1.70 than £1!"

I disagree, I think there's more chance of them reaching £1 than £1.70....

End of this month in 2 weeks so many firms will have to pay a full month's pay..

Possibly crunch time..


My posts have been consistent re Qtr 4, towards end of year..

[jugears] 01/10/2020 12:59

DD, Very good post but should have used the red & blue high lighters, LOl

[disneydonald] 01/10/2020 12:59

Imastu. I won't get involved. I occasionally feel the need to add my two penneth.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 01/10/2020 12:52

DD - all cogent and relevant. But let's be honest, it's a bit like poking a bear. All you will achieve is to provoke a deluge of (brightly coloured) repetitive unquantified responses which will trigger your response, which will...

And on and on it goes. I wish you well with it, but I gave up last night.

Meantime, the share price has woken up. A bit...

[jugears] 01/10/2020 12:46

DD, once it became apparent that we were actually leaving the EU, Orders & tenders surged.
Gbh2, Its very contradictory at the moment, what we are being told & what I am seeing are entirely different things, you do have to wonder how out of touch this government are especially when they are working on data collected by others which is 2 months old, they don't even know exactly how many people are still on furlough so that says it all really.

[gbh2] 01/10/2020 12:45

Added a new office bod and a Chippy down in Corby, things manic atm :))

[disneydonald] 01/10/2020 12:41

Shrek. Again you just list a few general topics which may, or may not, impact the current new build market. Would it be helpful if I try and quantify each point in a neutral context. That way readers of this BB can make their own investment decisions, based on unbiased narrative.

Brexit. When we finally left the EU (Dec) the markets in general responded very positively. Markets don't like uncertainty, and finally after three years we had certainty. Builders share prices responded by rising strongly. The market has moved on from Brexit.

COVID 2nd wave. The current media hype re second wave is not confirmed. Most of these recent positive tests relate to 100,000 + university students who have suddenly been thrown together in confined spaces. Many of whom will behave as if they are on holiday. This was to be expected, although it seems to be a surprise to UK GOV. Strip out these positive tests and the rest of the community is only showing a small increase.

Furlough. It is unfortunate that many will be formally made redundant, although they had effectively been redundant for many months already. Just not confirmed. These have been out of the new build market for months, and will likely to be so until they find another job. That has not stopped the new build market from racing ahead in the last few months.I suggest no actual impact from furlough ending.

Mortgage. Similar to furlough. People who have been on mortgage holidays for months have out of the new build market for months, so no real effect there. If some of these end up having to sell, this will actually add more properties to the current shortage of homes and will continue to feed to overall market. So unlikely to have negative effect on current new build. In fact many in larger homes will likely take advantage of trading down into new builds. Quick and easy way to part ex and retain a roof over families head.

Evictions. Given current situation, I doubt UK GOV will allow that to happen at scale. Lenders will increase forbearance, and as above some will trade down.

Economy. Sure these are testing and uncertain times. However, never has so much money been pumped into the economy, much of which is finding its way into the housing market. This is self evident as housing sales rise strongly, both cash and mortgaged sales. COVID has triggered lots of people to re assess their life choices, and many are moving homes. The downside is central London sales of apartments above £1M are sluggish.

SDLT. Sure UK GOV has stimulated the housing market, and they may continue to do so. Economists will tell you that the most bang for your buck comes from infrastructure spend. (unless its one of Boris's madcap plans, new London airport in the Thames, HS2 running Nort / South rather than Liverpool to Hull). Dishy Rishy is just as likely to extend this relief, as allow it to end, as this is a cheap way to help the economy compared to subsidising jobs and businesses via grants. Much of which ends up with fraudsters.

Buyers. As above, many years of uncertainty has depressed home sales. Buyers are responding in general, and pent up demand is working through into the new build market with a vengeance. This is a momentum play.

Help to Buy. Not a real problem. Check out the numbers of second home owners who use it, and you will find that it is just opportunism. Once removed (assuming it will be, maybe Dishy Rishy will also defer on that as well), it will have little effect as builders currently have deep order books.

A few positives which you constantly ignore. Vaccine, every chance that one will be available in a few months. Consider what that will do for the market, a huge global sigh of relief as physiologically the world will get a positive feel good factor. This will help the markets no end, at least for a while until mega profit taking cools the market. Likely the underlying economy will continue to motor though as people become aspirational again and want to move on from COVID.

Youngsters will burn through COVID infections in a few months and infection rates will fall dramatically as herd immunity builds. The R rate will reduce quickly. Some media and UK GOV advisors only promote exponential rises, without factoring in natural immunity as youngsters quickly become infected and recover within a week or two, which will have the opposite effect to exponential rises as the R rate rapidly falls. A natural countenance to initial rapid increase in cases.

So, it is not all doom and gloom, the next few weeks may bring a series of good news flow. Those who have sat on the side lines may miss out the the initial rapid recovery in markets (especially the UK, and sectors hard hit like the builders).

IMHO, the builders, and Wimps in particular, are a solid mid term buy. There is every chance of a %50 appreciation by early next year.

I accumulated a large holding in Wimps around ten years ago, and even at these prices the annual return on capital (incl dividends) has been very good. Add that to tactical trading via derivatives and the returns are exceptional. All this time the siren voices ad city scribblers consistently get it wrong re the building sector. You just need patience in this sector. As they say, a couple of good long term investments are all you need to enrich yourselves for life. IMHO the building sector is one of those.

[jugears] 01/10/2020 12:23

shawzie, I use Accoya & Tricoya regularly, both exceptional Timber & Mdf products & becoming a lot more popular for exterior Joinery, the only downside is that they are very expensive (about 4 times more expensive than normal Redwood or MDF) & most customers don't want to pay the additional cost, the other problem is that Accoya is only sold through a few distributors & I have been told that it is becoming short in supply at the moment, but long term I think I will have a punt here, but please don't take my advise because I know absolutely nothing about anything.

[sunshine today] 01/10/2020 11:41

Not to mention, house prices are about 8 times average income.

Interest rates will have to go up sharply to protect the pound.

The buy to let crowd are finding they are getting zero rent and it takes an age to evict.

Sub contractor rates going through the roof

[sikhthetech] 01/10/2020 11:31

The share price of HBs have fallen over the last few months based on the events mentioned months ago -

Brexit
Covid 2nd wave
Furlough ending next month
Mortgage pay hols ending next month
Ban on evictions lifted..evictions recommence
Economy concerns
House prices rising due to temporary Stamp Duty hol, comes to an end March 31st, so buyers taking advantage now.
Help to Buy for 2nd homes ending in March 31st, so buyers taking advantage now.

Q4 starts today.

It's nice to have an investment decision proven right so conclusively BY EVENTS. Everyone should read the company/sector newsflow and form their own opinion.

[sikhthetech] 01/10/2020 11:31

Jug,
"up again, as expected"

No, they're not. They're back down, as expected. Rise a few p one day then fall back.
Q4 starts today.
;-)

[shawzie] 01/10/2020 10:54

Jugears
As you seem to be knowledgable about the building industry, I wondered if you had any views on Accys Technologies (AXS) as a long term investment.

[gbh2] 01/10/2020 10:51

His view(s) whether read or not have taken over the whole thread much as it did the other, it's win win for him.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 01/10/2020 10:49

For me it was just an attempt to nail him down to something that I didn't think he had an answer for. Needless to say, he didn't answer because he didn't have one.

At least it clarified any nagging doubt in my mind about being fair to him and whether he had anything constructive to offer. He doesn't.

Now, I really have filtered him. And he will stay filtered. Jugears, will you do the same - and then (eventually) he will sod off, if no-one engages?

[gbh2] 01/10/2020 10:03

Judging by the multitude of replies he's certainly got some to buy into his misery :)

[jugears] 30/9/2020 21:49

Sikh did you read my post, could you reply asap money burning a whole in my pocket.