Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 24/9/2020 19:44

?The house market is booming because of the temporary Stamp Duty Holiday and Help to Buy scheme?That?s very misleading of you Sikh.You should know better than that.

[sikhthetech] 24/9/2020 18:48

Jug

"the government are not interested in companies like mine that only employ 20-40 people"

So you run this huge company, busier than you've ever been in years, supplying many companies but you only employ as many staff as a tiny company like a local restaurant.. lol...

Btw, redundancy consultation period applies to employers with 20+ employees. You should know that.

[essentialinvestor] 24/9/2020 18:33

p1, it's an interesting observation and one I could not answer or offer any
insight in to.

In any case what is weighing on the sector atm is COVID.

If you look back to TW nudging 1.70 in June, that corresponded
to some (incorrect) optimism that either the virus would burn itself out,
or a vaccine would be available by this autumn.

[sikhthetech] 24/9/2020 18:31

EI

"it should be clear by January, possibly December."

Agree, Q4 onwards, which starts next week onwards..
The emergency update by the Chancellor TODAY was to try and reduce the number of redundancies when the furlough scheme ends at end of Oct, given there are still 3m on the scheme.

The consultation period for large companies is min 45 days, so many would have started last week. Therefore, there wouldn't be any announcements until the consultation period is ending


The question is how many jobs will be saved by today's emergency update by the Chancellor?

[p1966] 24/9/2020 18:24

EI, you are absolutely right, it's not long to wait, besides I'm sure most people are in TW. for a 3 years plus timescale. I could have made myself clearer, as I was agreeing with Jugears, 'why have we still not heard about all these mass redundancies in the millions' - because the actual figure for large employers (March - September 2020) appears to be under 200k.

[essentialinvestor] 24/9/2020 18:11

fwiw OBR see UK unemployment near 9% by the end of December 2020,
making the BOE forecast quite optimistic.

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 24/9/2020 17:28

Translation?

[cl0ckw0rk0range] 24/9/2020 17:27

"The house market is booming because of the temporary Stamp Duty Holiday and Help to Buy scheme"That's very misleading of you Sikh.You should know better than that.

[essentialinvestor] 24/9/2020 17:04

Pretty pointless arguing the toss about unemployment as it should be clear
by January, possibly December.

[p1966] 24/9/2020 16:46

An article in the Daily Mail on 8 September 2020 (online edition, so I can't provide a link) indicates 191,069 potential job losses - as announced between 23 March and 4 September 2020. This will be for major employers only.

[jugears] 24/9/2020 16:19

Sikh, In case you don't understand the deadline for redundancy consultation for any company wishing to make more than 100 staff redundant when furlough ends was last week, so why have we still not heard about all these mass redundancies in the millions? I am assuming that only certain sectors like Leisure/tourism will get help anyway as most sectors are now working flat out in particular the building & construction industry.
I still have to disagree that stamp duty holiday & help 2 buy on second homes ending will have the major impact that you believe, there are know official figures that say a person has only bought a house because of either of those factors being in place, IMO a lot of people have delayed moving in the last 18 months due to change of government & indecision on leaving the EU, & some may have put plans on hold due to lock down & furlough & these would be purchases could delay until next year, but lock down does seem to have helped people to evaluate there lives & created a substantial current housing boom, further lock down could further exasperate this IMO & push house prices & sales even further.

[clarky5150] 24/9/2020 16:14

Bit of a shame today. Was hoping to stay in step with the other HBs

[sikhthetech] 24/9/2020 16:11

1carus,

Agree the uncertainty of whether it's a 'no deal' or 'deal' Brexit will be known by January. The consequences will not be known by 1st Jan, eg employment, migration, businesses etc.

The house market is booming because of the temporary Stamp Duty Holiday and Help to Buy scheme. I haven't seen anything in today's emergency update from the Chancellor saying that either are being extended. Have you?

Plus there's no Autumn budget, so it's certain that there's no further help for HBs at the moment and both Stamp Duty hol and H2B for 2nd homes will end 31st March, ie 6 months.

So one by one uncertainties are becoming less of an uncertainty as we're getting closer to the start of Q4....

[omg48] 24/9/2020 16:01

Most HB's 3-4% up. TW again the laggard 0.2%

[1carus] 24/9/2020 13:47

Sikh... I am not saying Brexit is good or bad, but the governments focus is Covid and Brexit. Despite what Boris does, Brexit is on a clock. It's not that he's getting it done, it's enshrined in law. That said it takes effort and focus from government right now. In January, with the outcome of Brexit known in terms of deal or no deal the government is free to govern as they see fit and set their own priorities. New homes, people moving etc has a big effect on the economy because of all of the knock on associated retail sales, carpets, furniture paint etc . Cause or causality who knows, but when the economy is depressed there never seems to be much action in the housing market. Right now the housing market is booming as far as I can see. Jug may have called it right and all is not as doom and gloomy as some would have us believe. Glass half full or half empty.... you'll never settle that here.

[jugears] 24/9/2020 13:06

No & I Have never had to get rid of staff in 40 years !, & as I don't employ 100 people I don't come in to that criteria anyway, of course you have to remember that the government are not interested in companies like mine that only employ 20-40 people, i'm afraid we are not important enough.

[sikhthetech] 24/9/2020 11:51

Jug
""hasnt the 45 day compulsory notice to the government f you are sacking more than 100 people past by a week?""


So you accept the 45 day "consultation period" has not passed as you suggested. It's not a compulsory notice period either.

Are you sure you run a large business??? You really need to update yourself on the laws of the land. ;-)

[disneydonald] 24/9/2020 11:41

UK Gov has set a target of 300K new houses per year to be added to the housing stock, and currently less than 200K are being added. Progress has been made after the financial crisis and the builders are doing their best to reach that target, so UK GOV will likely have no choice but to provide a following wind of some sorts. It has always done so, and given the UK's love affair with owning property it is likely to continue. Politicians know how to bribe an electorate in return for votes.

Add to that there are more than enough people who are able to either get mortgages or pay cash in order to buy those 300K new houses; all those millions of UK GOV employees with steady salaries come rain or shine, Bank of Mum and Dad, well paid professional people who work in the service sector and have reasonably secure jobs come rain or shine, ... the world is awash with cash looking for a return, and much of that will find its way into the property sector.

Of course, this does not mean that the share price will automatically respond accordingly, as we all know its the market that sets the share price

[sikhthetech] 24/9/2020 11:40

1carus

"Boris is getting Brexit done, 99 days to go, then he has to get the economy going as fast as possible."

The problem isn't getting Brexit done but the HBs have expressed concerns over a 'no deal' brexit. Completely different.
I wouldn't say Boris is actually getting anything done. The govn is dithering and reacting.

[jugears] 24/9/2020 11:39

Might be redundancies to be correct!!!!

[sikhthetech] 24/9/2020 11:36

Jug,

"hasnt the 45 day compulsory notice to the government f you are sacking more than 100 people past by a week?"

No.

It's called a 'consultation period', during which time they consult(surprising!!!) with the staff/unions. If you ran a company you would know what the law is?

Yesterday the government announced an emergency update TODAY and the cancellation of the Autumn budget. Yesterday was early stages of this 45 day consultation period.. amazing coincidence, eh Jug!!!!

It's clear that the government have been told that there will be substantial redundancies over the next few weeks.

There are still over 3m on furlough.

[baracuda2] 24/9/2020 11:22

If no one has a job we won't be worrying about houses, you're obviously another doom and gloom person