 i find myself agreeing with all of jugs' posts today apart from the last one. tariffs will backfire massively for the US. trump wants the US to be successful in business but is doing a great job of turning the whole world off US product. tesla cars are just the start.
a smaller market in the US for canadian timber and european product just makes the UK and europe a better value market so we might see some benefit.
i don't care about sikh's horse racing wins. we criticise jugs plenty for his mindless ramblings on here about completely irrelevant stuff. far too much guff on here.
but the housing market is still screwed. housing is still an asset bubble. there is mostly bad news ahead for the listed housebuilders. house prices will fall, either slowly or in a big way. sale volumes will continue to be small until the affordability gap is bridged and this will take years. the govt will find a way to bring more rented homes into use and this will affect new homes demand a little. i reckon the tw shareprice is at best going nowhere for a couple of years and the only reason to be invested is for the dividend. the divi will probably be at risk in 18 months. gla. |
I'm not sure why an extra 2.5k would weaken the market, hardly a fortune these days is it???? |
I doubt it very much Tw we're over 1 billion in debt then & had a small land bank, tbf I don't think there is a better time to buy IMVEO!
Why would anyone be interested in the fact that you are at Cheltenham & that you have won 50 quid on a horse with your 1 pound bet?, never been a fan of horse racing or any form of gambling where there is a 50% certainty of losing my money! |
I'm thoroughly enjoying Cheltenham racing, already had a 50-1 winner.
In other news.
As expected, buyer demand falls in Feb as Stamp Duty deadline looms.
This is from RICS, not a local Estate Agent!!!
RICS Survey shows UK housing market losing momentum
"Whilst national house prices overall continued to rise, the UK Residential Property Survey found that several factors of uncertainty reduced momentum in the UK’s housing market in February.
Buyer demand weakened, posting a net balance reading of -14% in February. This is down from -1% in January and marks the weakest result for the survey’s gauge of buyer demand since November 2023.
Changes to Stamp Duty arriving on April 1, where the threshold will reduce from £250,000 to £125,000, is expected to weaken market activity and will continue to influence the slowdown. Added to this, geopolitical uncertainties contribute to a less favourable climate for the housing sector." |
U.K. 10 year bond yields are parabolic, market well aware U.K. is utterly fukt. These back at almost covid lows and the full blown recession hasn’t even started yet. 2011 lows coming up for builders and ftse. |
Why would you buy or rather invest just before
1. A possible global trade war
2. Just before NI increases and unknow effect
3. Just before stamp duty increase and unknown effect
4. Just before interest rate uncertain decision |
Yes but what reason is there to buy ? I hear nothing but negativity on this board. It’s very tiring |
It’s the knock on effects Bug |
I like to add a few on the way down to make sure I don't miss the bottom & IMEO tariffs will make little difference to build cost, Bricks, Tiles,Insulation, block paving, slabs all come from England or Europe, Timber & sheet materials mainly Europe but then that is where America buys most of its Stuff so could lower prices here substantially,most furniture comes from UK or Europe, Windows doors & glass made in England or Europe, Architraves,skirting,window boards are usually mdf, made in Europe & Ireland, tbf I can't think of anything that does come from America? |
Bug “I've added substantially more around 1.11/12 ”
Couldn’t you’ve waited ? And personally I see no escape from tariffs affecting build cost inflation. |
Kreaps considering how many shares I own in Tw, buying 10k at 1.45 doesn't worry me, I've added substantially more around 1.11/12 & tbf it's extremely unlikely I won't see a return on my 1.45 investment anyway,
Lefty companies don't keep more that a few days stock anyway. |
Good find kreature, thank you. Jugly should enjoy that.
Perhaps the UK will get exports intended for the USA diverted to our shores at a discount?
I'm more concerned about the wider credit situation, which Jugly seems to think doesn't exist. |
We have Forterra (FORT) leading UK manufacturer of essential clay and concrete building products, with a unique combination of strong market positions in clay bricks, concrete blocks and precast concrete flooring.
New Desford is the largest and most efficient brick factory in Europe |
Uk imports way more building materials than it exports by at least double. So um not sure how builders can escape tariff effects ? See figure 3.7 : |
If UK export markets have been lost, then one would expect for a short time, for those unexported materials to be sold off at a discount to clear space. So perhaps a short lived minor boost, for builders with land to store materials on.
Probably won't amount to much though, as so many things are manufactured jit these days. |
I think you’re right jugs. Well about as right as you were to top up at 145 recently
Maybe they should be stockpiling building materials on the land banks? |
As most building materials come from the UK & Europe it probably won't |
How will tariffs effect build cost inflation? |
Panic sold yesterday. Was hungry. And I see VTY back under 6 quid despite it buying chunks of itself to flush down the toilet ? No interest rate cut this month either ?
Any reason to buy now ? |
Decided to take the plunge and buy a few shares here at 11.6 for the long term. Ie at least until lunchtime. I am prepared to overlook the so called “scamming̶1; for now, as one MP called it |
You probably just about covered your buying & selling costs then, unless I cleared a near 100% profit I wouldn't even consider selling a share, I'm not here for pennies. |
Panic sold 115.5 as was hungry and the reality of April onward is uncertain. Plus I am despondent at home owners selling older homes with windows that do not conform to fire regs (ie no way to escape) and selling with no EiCR electrical report. What is the point of an EiCR if it’s not provided at the point of sale (ffs) |
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