Until we get a rate cut, which we may get this week, HB's are going nowhere.
The reason why they are building less is because they are not confident they can sell more in the current climate. The demand is there for sure, but affordability is the issue. How can some not get this simple fact?
When mortgage rates were at this level many years ago, house prices were a lot lower, so some were able to buy. However, wages have not kept pace in relation to house prices, so now it's a problem. Add in other costs going up due to high inflation and lenders criteria stricter now than ever, no help to buy, etc.
With unemployment rising, businesses closing down, it doesn't look good. This has all be said before and is the reason for the TW stock price.
More houses coming to market now too, which is likely to slow house prices too I'd have thought.
Any rate cuts and we may see a rally in the price here, but I see more poor economic news flow which will equally knock back the price too. |
Sicsy, & your point is what exactly? |
“ People will always buy houses but DEMAND is significantly lower due to affordability problems.”
Very true. Excellent foresight in advance of Crest results also. |
Jugears
"Or perhaps the fact that it has had to double its provision for fire safety work in the last 6 months "
That's the problem which I and other bears have been posting.
HBs need to save cash for unforeseen costs.
Hence why TW's divi policy is flawed. Their cash will decline quickly if they continue paying divi at 7.5% of NAV.
sikhthetech - 11 Dec 2024 - 12:39:25 - 20194 of 21340
Cupra,
"People will still buy houses"
You miss the point entirely.
People will always buy houses but DEMAND is significantly lower due to affordability problems. The divi policy is flawed so cash will continue to decline.
sikhthetech - 28 Feb 2024 - 17:57:24 - 17557 of 20194
<...>
The dividend was always going to be maintained. It's their dividend policy, which I believe is flawed. I see that as a risk as they should be preserving cash during hard times. Other HBs don't have the same rigid divi policy. |
Question for the village idiot, Sikhthetech...
Was the UK average house price in Octoer 2018 lower or higher than in October 2024?
You went short in October 2018 and lost your shirt! Lol, just lol |
Or perhaps the fact that it has had to double its provision for fire safety work in the last 6 months (circa 145 million) & substantial cost to complete a very troublesome site in Farnham?????? |
This is really strange from Telegraph re Crest :
‘Construction company blames slump in demand for 53pc fall in profits.’
I thought Bug said there was no shortage of demand ? |
Kreature, exactly. Crst update not good. Shows the continued problems being faced by HBs. |
Bug…….Crest sight ‘building safety costs’ and ‘highly uncertain times’ , which are obviously not exclusive to Crest |
Affordability is a major issue, despite what Jugears/Beckers tell you.
UK house price growth slowed in January |
Kreaps, at 7 o'clock this morning I had a little wager with my self as to who would be first to mention CRST, lol I got it wrong I was expecting it to be sikh, I assume you fully understand about the issues they have had before trying to compare the company to TW in any way,shape or form? All credit to you though for volunteering to help depopulate the world, when are you popping off????? |
Oh dear
‘Crest Nicholson has reported a £144m loss amid increased building safety costs and falling completions.’
Oh dear, now what Mugs ? |
Jugs why worry….. Depopulation will solve housing and hospital shortages. I’m assuming you’ve been primed with jabs ready for the next pandemic, so all good imo |
 Sicky, all might do's, meanwhile I see the share price has gone back up. If uk government come under pressure that will mean a lot less money for the NHS, we are already seeing new hospital builds delayed by 5 years that doesn't sound good to me, the country has a huge shortage of houses sooner or later they will need to be built, the government wont be building any, that will be up to the house builders, I have no doubt that we are in for a bumpyish ride for the near future but I don't lose sleep over it, if TW's share price goes down I will buy more, if it goes up I wont, I don't need to sell any shares & I don't need the income either, life has always been a challenge but its about how you manage those challenges that's important, the country has survived Wars, Covid, leaving the Eu, higher interest rates, cost of living crisis etc etc & I'am sure we will survive Trump & Starmer, what will be will be, can't do F all about it, I am thinking of starting a new enterprise building Nuclear shelters, I think you could be the ideal candidate to be my first customer????? |
Again...
Question for the village idiot, Sikhthetech...
Was the UK average house price in Octoer 2018 lower or higher than in October 2024?
You went short in October 2018 and lost your shirt! Lol, just lol |
Jugears
"FFS Whatever Trumpton does will not effect everyone"
What the most powerful person on Earth, who's mate Musk owns X doesn't impact everyone? Again, it doesn't need to impact "everyone" but a lot of govns, thousands of organisations/companies and millions of people will be impacted by Trump's policies.
I suppose TW are immune if there's inflationary pressures? I suppose TW are immune if huge debt crisis increases and govn has to increase taxes? |
Sickly,FFS Whatever Trumpton does will not effect everyone, you over worry & over think to much! |
Question for the village idiot, Sikhthetech...
Was the UK average house price in Octoer 2018 lower or higher than in October 2024?
You went short in October 2018 and lost your shirt! Lol, just lol |
Jugears,
"I can't see how trumps tariffs are going to effect a uk house builder?"
If you believe US markets, US policies etc don't impact UK markets then you really are clueless.
Trump is in power for 4years.
Labour are in power for 4+ years.
From 3 years ago:
sikhthetech20 Feb '22 - 15:26 - 5884 of 5899 Edit
<..>
When the housing market crashes, no HB is immune from the crash. Likewise, listed HBs are not immune from stockmarket falls or movements.
Govn support, provided during pandemic, has ended. Repossessions which were stopped during pandemic are legal again.
Around 30k homeowners in severe mortgage debt.
Inflationary pressure, interest rate rises, NI rises, Council tax rises, energy price rises all impact affordability. |
As far as I am aware ISG didn't build houses???, I haven't said hundreds of thousands will buy homes if interest rates fall< 10k alone would significantly improve the market. |
Gawd, you lot are boring. Now I’ve filtered you all, only the sensible posts will get through |
Jugears
"I know a large construction company that won a billion pounds worth of work but still went bust"
Good to see you now agree, it's not all 1 way for HBs.
"Not everyone has an affordability problem buying a home though"
No one has ever said everyone. Not everyone was forced to sell their home or went bankrupt during GFC. Not every home needs to crash 40%++.
"for starters over 30% pay cash"
Hypocrite again. You're back to suggesting a small interest rate fall will result in hundreds of thousands to buy a new build!!!! |
Sikh I know a large construction company that won a billion pounds worth of work but still went bust, what is the bottom line on 27 million, I would expect at least 4 or 5 million but in reality it will be more like a few hundred k!
Not everyone has an affordability problem buying a home though, for starters over 30% pay cash,Lets be clear some people will always find buying a house out of their reach, others will struggle but not everyone & that is my point, you are say that houses are unaffordable to everyone which is not the case.
You've made a substantial loss on TLY so why include that? I have made very good gains on other shares as well thanks, as you know RR is just one of those, which TBF probably beats all of yours lol.
Why would I pay for ADVFN when its free to use? what benefits would I get?
It's not a competition! |
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