Tandem Share Discussion Threads

[bwm2] 31/7/2020 09:54

continued on the basis of "if you don't put your head above the parapet, you don't know whether it is going to be shot off"......

A prospective p/e of 8 gives 455p and a 38% price uplift. This is my target this year, so I continue to add.

Comments please

[bwm2] 31/7/2020 09:50

The company has just hit a 5 year price breakout, is it expensive?

I note that the half year results are not published until end Sept so without further guidance anticipated till then, I have had a closer look at expectations for the second half and full year.

I don't have enough knowledge of the company (bought earlier this year as a group of shares expected to achieve irrespective of the Covid 2nd wave)to make a judgement on the dynamics of margin improvement with increased sales or the management (never met any of them)

Nor have I factored in a repeat special dividend.

At this stage I am looking as second half earnings of 45.4p and first 11.5p ie 56.9p say 57p for the full year.

On this basis the forward p/e is 5.8x to still cheap, but how cheap?

Taking y/e NAV at 31/12/20 and deducting Net Cash and freehold property gives £9m attributed to the business which I forecast to make an after tax return over 30%

[castleford tiger] 30/7/2020 14:23

5000 shares at 300p or 315

after the 5000 at 315p I expect price to move up.

I am not a seller at these levels
tiger

[bwm2] 30/7/2020 11:59

OOps, Net Cash

[bwm2] 30/7/2020 11:13

CT
I see that here was a spurious tax charge in the first half of 2019, so assuming a normalised tax charge and basic eps, I'm at 11.5p and £2.6m net debt
On this company's theme, I saw a new hotel concept last week www.bikeandboot.com
Another bit of anecdotal evidence regarding momentum

[castleford tiger] 30/7/2020 10:50

Two things
You can nearly always buy within the spread
Quoting 290 to sell but you can get 300 p
Likewise buying 310 was on offer now 315 and 320 for weight.
Whilst this has gone up if you look at any measure it’s cheap
They only made 3 p eps in first half and closed the year at 40 p so very second half weighted.
This year we know sales are up ( and those sales should be higher margin ) as FOB business was lower.
I have put in 10 p but that could be way too low.
Last year the BOD threw lots of exc costs in first half.
The cash ( NET ) is growing and was 10% of market capital as of last week.
Huge shortage of outdoor kit like tents as people stay in the U.K.
this year really could be once in a lifetime. Then the business settles making 50/70p eps and if we can discuss with management a sensible dividend scheme we could be getting 12.5 p to 20 p a share
That’s about 25% still room to grow.
Then there is the possibility of going private or being swallowed by a bigger company.
So tbh anything at these levels looks very cheap.

[deanowls] 30/7/2020 10:38

Very small holder, tried getting more a few months ago but my limit order wasn’t hit, then two days later it shot off. Always the way.

[bwm2] 30/7/2020 09:53

Extended family does. Knew quite a few members so didn't venture onto other courses

[castleford tiger] 30/7/2020 09:37

You have a place there?

[bwm2] 30/7/2020 09:30

CT
Vale De Lobo for an extended period as we were waiting hopefully for an airbridge back
12 rounds in 18 days... wonderful
No one had issues with wearing facemasks in restaurants, shops taxis etc

[castleford tiger] 30/7/2020 09:05

Where do you play Algarve?
I am a san loz / Quinta north and south

Missed 2 trips but sept hopefully

[bwm2] 30/7/2020 07:44

CT
Golf was a chore compared to empty Algarve courses three weeks ago. Will have a look at first half later. Only a small holder her as psychologically the spread is a killjoy

[castleford tiger] 29/7/2020 20:14

Dean are you a holder?

[deanowls] 29/7/2020 19:38

Agree CT. It’s a lovely view of the M6 from the office window. I had my first ever job on that estate.

[castleford tiger] 29/7/2020 17:07

dean
You would only pay at UK port and they should be on terms.

The net cash increase I have is profit made in first half.

With market cap just being the same as NET assets which include
a freehold property and cash the trading business making between 2 and 3 million net is in for nothing.

If someone came along and offered shareholders £4.00 a share it would cost them
£20 million ( less the shares that have been lost )

Sell the freehold and you have a business with xxxx net cash for not much more than 10m making you 20/30% pa plus savings by reducing directors and listing costs

tiger

[deanowls] 29/7/2020 16:45

Hopefully cash is down and they have it tied up in stock incoming.

[castleford tiger] 29/7/2020 14:22

thanks bwm2

I was however just looking at first half to compare to last year.

If you have energy after GOLF

Also NET cash

I am going
NET CASH...........£2.8m THIS WAS 1.8 AT YEAR END

EPS .............10p up from 3p at same stage last year.

The second half always turns this round at year end EPS was 40p

Tiger

[bwm2] 29/7/2020 13:51

CT
EPS 48.5p
Cash £7m
Now time for golf

[castleford tiger] 28/7/2020 22:54

First half in the bag

Who wants to go first?

Eps forecasts please

Net cash

Tiger

[castleford tiger] 28/7/2020 16:18

I think this is ready to really push on.
Maybe needs 1/2 time results to do so but MM looking for blocks of 10k shares now when did that last happen?

I still think 500p is very possible this year
tiger

[balcony] 28/7/2020 13:21

Looks good starting with a 3

[castleford tiger] 28/7/2020 13:13

Should push on to a quick 350 plus now we have broken that barrier.
Tiger

[castleford tiger] 28/7/2020 08:48

300 to buy but no trades?

[davidosh] 27/7/2020 23:58

Boris is certainly keen to get the country moving and using bikes...need the lanes in cities to be safer though...