Sylvania Platinum Share Discussion Threads

[creditcrunchies] 07/7/2023 09:58

Peeps thought 80p was an insane valuation now it's 65p it's only a few pence from being valued on cash alone without a business

[frazboy] 07/7/2023 09:28

Enterprise value now down to $70m if I'm using the correct share count. Is the market expecting the company to be loss making going forward? Anyone got a forecast to hand with current spot prices?

[justiceforthemany] 06/7/2023 23:54

30 day RSI down to just 19
(oversold ++)

[dougmachin] 06/7/2023 22:20

What we really need to see is an RNS in the morning with the paused share buy-back resumed in full at sub 70p.

[justiceforthemany] 06/7/2023 12:13

Head of Investor Relations anyone?

[slopsjon2] 06/7/2023 10:54

The AIM all share is down 43% since a high in sept 21, a new 52wk low today. In comparison, the FTSE smallcap is down 20% for the same period.

[return_of_the_apeman] 06/7/2023 10:45

I can't find any news to explain this sudden drop so perhaps the answer is just the trend in the basket pricing after all, coupled with higher input costs

"The cure for low prices is low prices" so having a look what "low" is

In terms of worst case for the metals, a very basic check of the 10yr charts is quite enlightening

Good news for Platinum - bounced off good support at today's price of 900 otherwise next support is 835 and 800 (ignoring covid lows)

Palladium @1258 still in a long term down trend phase, some support around 1100,1000 with lows of 500 in 2016

Rhodium @4000 downtrend looks the most vulnerable with a low of 625 in 2016

As a lower quartile producer SLP will survive/thrive again and we could be a long way from the bottom for metal prices, however the cash on the books should provide a cushion

So I guess I am looking to buy in tranches from support at 60p if it gets there fwiw, can't see it ever testing support at 40p (we'll see how well that comment ages :-)

[brucie5] 06/7/2023 10:27

deme, yes, my reading of the chart is those two supports, with 40p obviously being the larger. I'd also comment that after falling 50% from peak, shares not uncommonly fall a further 50% to a quarter of their high. Not always the case, clearly; but on this chart that would take it 25% of 1.40 = 35p. Where it was in 2020.
I sold out yesterday, being in general a long term fan of this share, but at the right price in a favourable market. From what I've read it seems to be well run and of course has balance sheet strength.

[soilderboy] 06/7/2023 10:22

Hope your wrong.

[deme1] 06/7/2023 10:15

Many people have been offloading SLP due to the metals prices getting trashed, it was not noticed as SLP Were buying back daily and absorbing the sales.

Now it looks like SLP have not announced a buyback for a number of days, suggest that it has stopped and hence why there is no support.

I suspect 60p to be hit, massive support. My feeling is that it will have a small bounce but then continue to fall with 40p not being out of the question.

[devilsprofessor] 06/7/2023 09:50

I hope Q4 review has a rabbit in the hat, this downwards rollercoaster ? ain't for the faint hearted!

[bountyhunter] 05/7/2023 17:39

Last year the Q4 report was on the 28 July so we should see the equivalent for this year in around 3 weeks time, I can't see a precise date anywhere.

[bountyhunter] 05/7/2023 17:33

Doug:

>>But Rhodium started to go back up today! A long way to go though. It seems the price of Rhodium fluctuates wildly.

The absence of a futures market for Rhodium is part of the reason for that.

[stemis] 05/7/2023 17:30

Since SLP announced, on 9 May 2022 (14 months ago), that it was buying back shares it has bought back 9,661,447 shares (3.5%) of it's shares. Cost was probably about $10m or just a quarter of its dividend cost last year. Unless you are going to aggressively buy back shares, I really don't see the point. What has it achieved? Minimal impact on EPS, on NAV/share and little if any impact on the share price.

[justiceforthemany] 05/7/2023 17:08

Board need to restart buy back at these levels. Why stop?

[stemis] 05/7/2023 10:11

At the current basket price it's hard to see that SLP are anything better than marginally profitable although the drop in sales revenue will release working capital into cashflow so the cash balance should be pretty high (maybe $160-170m = 48-51p/share). It will be interesting to see what their attitude is to the dividend. The cost of 8p a share is $27m (making 11p for year at a cost of $37m). Probably just about covered for this year (give or take) and buying back shares whilst cutting the dividend would be pretty harsh, but SLP have shown themselves very prudent in this regard in the past.

[dougmachin] 05/7/2023 09:58

Folks are concerned about the basket price for Q4.

But Rhodium started to go back up today! A long way to go though. It seems the price of Rhodium fluctuates wildly.

SLP bought back 6 million shares last year too. Surely this all helps to keep the dividend up. Fewer shares to divide the free cash flow into. Hoping for a good divi still.

This is coming:
The recent relogging and additional sampling data collected at Volspruit will be subject to an updated Mineral Resource Estimate ("MRE") during Q4 FY2023, which will include a rhodium resource over 100% of the project area;

This too:
Lannex MF2 construction in progress, with commissioning scheduled during HY1 FY2024, which will further improve PGM recovery efficiencies;

Only issue I have is long-term demand for Rhodium (move to electric vehicles). As work through recession fears, Rhodium price should go back up.

Buybacks ongoing (over time, they really increase shareholder value IMO). Don't think this is a time to sell.

[kennyp52] 05/7/2023 08:59

No RNS .. no changes in factors .. could this actually be manipulated by the company brokers to buy the shares back cheaply ! This stinks but company substantially undervalued . Never have liked buy-backs .. burns cash which should , by forward thinking management , be put to better use imho. I doubt their intention is to destroy shareholder value but this is the reality today . Still do not understand the drop .. should have waited in hindsight but 76 was cheap imho.

[creditcrunchies] 05/7/2023 08:47

The company is pretty close to being valued on cash alone sitting duck for a takeover

[adejuk] 05/7/2023 08:45

what did i miss? why did it fall off the cliff?

[taras73] 05/7/2023 08:38

Thanks a lot mjneish and dougmachin! Me being careless and ignoring the small print at my peril) always thought that such info would be up in the main tables/text rather than in the notes.

[dougmachin] 04/7/2023 21:58

If this is 6E:
Pt 52%
Pd 18%
Rh 9%
Au 0%
Ru 16%
Ir 5%

Then does this mean, this is 4E:
Pt 66%
Pd 23%
Rh 11%
Au 0%

[mjneish] 04/7/2023 21:51

Look in their quarterly reports, the most recent of which was on 28 April.