Sylvania Platinum Share Discussion Threads

[justiceforthemany] 07/7/2023 17:46

Brokers have a valuation of c. 160p....
food for thought

[stemis] 07/7/2023 16:39

Actually the claim I was responding to was

Peeps thought 80p was an insane valuation now it's 65p it's only a few pence from being valued on cash alone without a business

Post 8009

[kennyp52] 07/7/2023 16:35

MCAP currently £176.25m @ bid 66p. Cash expected $150m . Exchange .78 = £117m .

117/176.26 x 66p = 38p excusing receivables which really should also be factored in but agreed Stemis . So over half of the MCAP is currently in cash .. which I think was the claim ? In fact on above figures 66% .

Rhodium is starting to recover last couple of trading days … have to wait and see how that plays out but over $4,000 . Platinum is predicted to be in short supply 🤷‍a94;️

Imho .. massively oversold and a plaything for MM’s

[mjneish] 07/7/2023 16:05

Cash was $144.2 million according to their Q3 results on the 28th of April.

[rabiddog] 07/7/2023 15:30

Yes but tailings aren’t an issue, as stated in pretty much every yearly financial review. This is a pure PGM weakness fall exaggerated by technicals.

[madpearce] 07/7/2023 14:48

If they run out of good quality tailings they havent got a business ?

[frazboy] 07/7/2023 12:23

Due to todays drop in the share price the EV is around $65 million on those numbers. Platinum and palladium are weak but not so weak as to cause such a sudden deterioration in the share price Are we missing something?

[justiceforthemany] 07/7/2023 12:13

You also need to factor in the depreciation of the Rand which helps margins.

[stemis] 07/7/2023 11:20

I doubt it's got more than 50p a share in cash

To put more meat on that bone. As at 31 December (per interims) the company had $124m in cash and £55m in receivables. In Q3 net profit was $6m and capex $2m. I'd be surprised if Q4 was better than breakeven. Depreciation is about $2m a half year, so overall cashflow of $6m in H2. So even assuming a 50% reduction in receivables, that's a year end cash of around $157m ($124m + $6m + $27m). It's also bought back 3.7m shares at around 80p, a £3m (= $4m) outflow, leaving $153m. For comparison it was $144m at end of Q3.

Number of shares in issue 264.7m. $153m = £120m. £120m/264.7m = 45p a share. Off that you can take the 3p interim dividend, so 42p a share. Even allowing for the approximate nature of the calculation it's going to be hard for cash to exceed 50p a share.

[farmers son] 07/7/2023 10:25

calm down
it's just trading lower on weak short term fundamentals and the technical break of 80p

[deme1] 07/7/2023 10:25

Kenny

It looks like the buyback was the one thing holding the share price up.

Have SLP finished the buyback? No RNS for the last few days. If so then there is no one to absorb the sells, share price drops sharply and unfortunately stops will get hit. I don't think this is manipulation, it's more to do with the cost of metals being trashed especially rhodium which was a BIG earner for SLP

[kennyp52] 07/7/2023 10:06

Stemis .. no CAPEX going on .. free cash flow should be maintaining at least the bank balance. Who is selling ? Effectively the company buying cheap off their own shareholders ? They should have to buy at a premium . If their stockbrokers are manipulating this is any way to hit stop losses etc . The it needs looking into . Spivs all of them . Basket price was already priced in . A buy back is supposed to add value not kill it .

[stemis] 07/7/2023 10:00

I doubt it's got more than 50p a share in cash

[creditcrunchies] 07/7/2023 09:58

Peeps thought 80p was an insane valuation now it's 65p it's only a few pence from being valued on cash alone without a business

[frazboy] 07/7/2023 09:28

Enterprise value now down to $70m if I'm using the correct share count. Is the market expecting the company to be loss making going forward? Anyone got a forecast to hand with current spot prices?

[justiceforthemany] 06/7/2023 23:54

30 day RSI down to just 19
(oversold ++)

[dougmachin] 06/7/2023 22:20

What we really need to see is an RNS in the morning with the paused share buy-back resumed in full at sub 70p.

[justiceforthemany] 06/7/2023 12:13

Head of Investor Relations anyone?

[slopsjon2] 06/7/2023 10:54

The AIM all share is down 43% since a high in sept 21, a new 52wk low today. In comparison, the FTSE smallcap is down 20% for the same period.

[return_of_the_apeman] 06/7/2023 10:45

I can't find any news to explain this sudden drop so perhaps the answer is just the trend in the basket pricing after all, coupled with higher input costs

"The cure for low prices is low prices" so having a look what "low" is

In terms of worst case for the metals, a very basic check of the 10yr charts is quite enlightening

Good news for Platinum - bounced off good support at today's price of 900 otherwise next support is 835 and 800 (ignoring covid lows)

Palladium @1258 still in a long term down trend phase, some support around 1100,1000 with lows of 500 in 2016

Rhodium @4000 downtrend looks the most vulnerable with a low of 625 in 2016

As a lower quartile producer SLP will survive/thrive again and we could be a long way from the bottom for metal prices, however the cash on the books should provide a cushion

So I guess I am looking to buy in tranches from support at 60p if it gets there fwiw, can't see it ever testing support at 40p (we'll see how well that comment ages :-)

[brucie5] 06/7/2023 10:27

deme, yes, my reading of the chart is those two supports, with 40p obviously being the larger. I'd also comment that after falling 50% from peak, shares not uncommonly fall a further 50% to a quarter of their high. Not always the case, clearly; but on this chart that would take it 25% of 1.40 = 35p. Where it was in 2020.
I sold out yesterday, being in general a long term fan of this share, but at the right price in a favourable market. From what I've read it seems to be well run and of course has balance sheet strength.

[soilderboy] 06/7/2023 10:22

Hope your wrong.

[deme1] 06/7/2023 10:15

Many people have been offloading SLP due to the metals prices getting trashed, it was not noticed as SLP Were buying back daily and absorbing the sales.

Now it looks like SLP have not announced a buyback for a number of days, suggest that it has stopped and hence why there is no support.

I suspect 60p to be hit, massive support. My feeling is that it will have a small bounce but then continue to fall with 40p not being out of the question.