Sureserve Share Discussion Threads

[fozzie] 23/1/2023 11:12

I am fast losing patience with this stock. Held for almost two years and gone nowhere, should be doing a lot better. Peeps bailing ahead of the update.

[johndoe23] 23/1/2023 10:34

Looks like a lot of PI's taking profits this morning

[johndoe23] 20/1/2023 18:15

Let's see what the update brings, really need the dividend reinstated as a minimum

[knowhow77] 20/1/2023 17:29

They have to come up with something for the shareholders they said it would be more beneficial to not give a dividend and plough the money into a aquisition if they announce neither then they are failing us

[hsmith_08] 20/1/2023 15:57

Hope the board come up with something worthwhile for investors on Tuesday as this price hasn’t changed for almost 2 years! Regardless of the current market situation this isn’t good enough and the minimal contact from the board since bob holt left has played a part in this!

[gucci] 19/1/2023 15:34

topped up this morning

[rivaldo] 19/1/2023 13:51

Shore's new note, ignoring the clumsy handling of the businesses for sale, does at least offer a decent brief summary of some of SUR's attractions:

"Key themes likely: We expect the group to provide evidence of how the merger of the Compliance and Energy Services divisions is presenting greater cross-selling opportunities in tackling fuel poverty while performing regulated gas safety audits. An example was the £5m solar PV contract for the Ministry of Defence, announced in October which could, in our view, open further opportunities across its vast estate of military housing and other buildings.

Other potential themes highlighted in our previous notes include: updates on the businesses held for sale; acquisition opportunities; and updates on capital allocation policy.

Growth with strong revenue visibility: Sureserve's social housing owner clients are committed to significant long-term improvements to address energy poverty, underpinned by the Government's commitment to improve national energy security. In addition, revenue has a high degree of revenue visibility, particularly in the compliance operations.

Contracts are typically three-to-five years in duration, plus much longer ones, such as the up to 10-year extension to its existing contract with housing association, the Guinness Partnership in August 2021. These are generally protected to a significant degree from input cost inflation: contracts that typically allow for CPI or RPI increases."

[barnesian] 19/1/2023 10:06

I bought 6000 at 86.9p just after 9am this morning. It shows as a sell on the trades, but it was a buy.

Thanks for the tip Rivaldo.

[angersharkz] 19/1/2023 10:05

If there’s a few sellers around this morning because of the wording of an analysts notes then that’s a relief and there’s very little to be concerned about.

I’m much more interested in what’s delivered next Tuesday. Hopefully there’s plenty of positive stuff here.

[igoe104] 19/1/2023 09:49

Just emailed shore capital about their poorly worded note, feel free to give them some grief...

[e-mail]

[gswredland] 19/1/2023 09:22

Thank you Rivaldo.
Fall was a bit mystifying!

[rivaldo] 19/1/2023 08:51

I suspect a few silly billies have sold this morning on the publication of an idiotic new note from Shore Capital.

Ironically it's meant to be a positive push for SUR prior to next Tuesday's results, noting that SUR are on an "undemanding" multiple and with "growth and resilience to continue".

But Shore's headline PBT and EPS figures on page 1 are suddenly much less than before. Why? Because - without explaining it clearly - they've recalculated on the basis of the Continuing businesses only, i.e completely excluding the profits of the businesses held for resale.

You have to go to page 2 to see that actually the total figures are exactly the same as before except for a small revision due to the now higher 2023/24 corporation tax charge.

Furthermore, the headline figures adjust out the held for resale businesses, yet fail to adjust "in" for any sale proceeds raising the cash pile or making the EV/EBITDA even better. So it's a one-way street rather than a fair adjustment, i.e failing to adjust the P/E to an ex-cash basis.

Incidentally, they have the "for sale" businesses contributing £2.6m PBT and 1.3p EPS. This might suggest they could raise say £18m-£20m on sale, lifting SUR's cash pile to well over £40m - approaching 30% of the m/cap. But of course they don't even mention this.

In total SUR are forecast to make 8.1p historic EPS and 8.8p EPS this year to Sept'23 - i.e now a single-digit P/E.

The "continuing" business numbers are 6.9p EPS rising to 7.6p EPS - but obviously if you completely exclude the businesses held for resale then you should adjust the P/E to be an ex-cash P/E rather than just ignoring one side of the equation.

This is just so avoidable and has to be the reason for the early sales. Oof, I'm really annoyed at Shore Capital!

[knowhow77] 19/1/2023 08:31

Not much of rally before results!!

[johndoe23] 17/1/2023 12:38

Unless there was to be a special...

[johndoe23] 17/1/2023 12:38

Dividend would to be north of 2p imho

[gargoyle2] 17/1/2023 11:05

Brokers' forecasts dont include a dividend for this year or 2023 or 2024, so I think that's being optimistic, but let's see.

[gswredland] 17/1/2023 09:49

If they do provide a dividend it would probably give the shares a re-rating

[knowhow77] 17/1/2023 09:47

A week to go until the results I’m hoping for the dividend to be brought back with a minimum of 1p and a decent aquisition if not a 2p dividend

[rivaldo] 17/1/2023 08:48

Interesting new article on how heat pumps "are becoming the technology of the future":

[gswredland] 16/1/2023 11:16

Great write up. Thanks Rivaldo

[gargoyle2] 16/1/2023 10:43

Thanks rivaldo

[rivaldo] 16/1/2023 10:31

Tipped again on Master Investor by Mark Watson-Williams:



"Sureserve Group (LON:SUR) – Deserving a Much Higher Rating

I like the way that the shares of this gas safety compliance and energy efficiency services group have been gently nudging higher over the last week or so.

Last night they closed up another 3.5p at 91.5p, valuing the business at £152m.

The shares have been down to 83.66p since I commented upon the group and its prospects just a week ago.

At that time, I fixed a new Target Price for the shares to rise to 106p this year, so the last week’s advance is a useful stride forward.

The group will be presenting its full year results on Tuesday 24 January.

Pre-tax profits have risen steadily over the last few years from £8.3m in 2019, then £9.4m in 2020, with adjusted pre-tax profits for the year to end September 2021 reflecting a 24% sales uplift in the Covid year to £244m, producing profits of £13.6m.

In the same three years earnings lifted from 4.4p to 7.1p per share.

The estimates by Shore Capital analyst Alastair Stewart suggest £304m sales lifted profits to £16.4m, worth 8.1p per share in earnings.

The group had an excellent order book of some £585m at the 2022 trading year end, which is very impressive and that is a figure that is sure to rise strongly over the next few years, underlining the group’s profit prospects.

What is more the group is boasting a strong net cash position, £23.2m at end September last.

The soon-to-be announced results will surely be accompanied by a positive outlook statement despite external pressures.

Shore Capital have already pencilled-in estimates for the current year for £319.2m revenues, £18.6m profits and 9.2p per share in earnings.

Based upon the strong cash balance and undrawn facility, upon the massive and improving order book and the current estimates – I see my Target Price of 106p being rapidly achieved, while later in the year market anticipation of improving profits will see an even higher rating.

These shares are headed higher and through the 100p, possibly within the month, if not days."

[pj 1] 13/1/2023 21:23

North Lincolnshire is sat on enough proven gas reserves to heat the whole country for a few years.

Its easy to say lets go green in summer... but in a bad winter..?

Bring on nuclear seems the only solution.