Superglass Share Discussion Threads

[theoldcodger] 04/5/2011 13:13

Having sold out some time ago and previously been rather negative about the shares (see previous posts) at this level (20.5p) I've dipped a small toe back in. With the rather excessive level of debt there's no denying that this is a high risk punt, but should the company manage to deliver over the next 18 months, I would expect the shares to at least double - so the current risk / reward ratio seems quite favourable to me. Certainly not one for "widows or orphans", DYOR etc, etc. TOC

[masurenguy] 04/5/2011 00:53

Diversification is the key as Superglass aims for a rebound
29 April 2011

INSULATION maker Superglass yesterday hailed the success of its diversification programme as it reduces its reliance on a UK government-backed energy efficiency scheme for homes. The Stirling-based firm grew direct sales to housebuilders by 15.6% during the second quarter and increased its share of the builders' merchant market from 17% to 25% in the past year.

Chief executive Alex McLeod told The Scotsman he was pleased with the progress being made to reduce the firm's dependence on the carbon emissions reduction scheme (Cert), which requires power companies to help their customer reduce their energy usage. Cert accounted for 60% of Superglass's sales in 2009 but has now fallen to 36%. Slow take up of Cert was blamed for an 11% fall in turnover during the six months to 28 February to £15m. The firm broke even - compared with a £2.6m interim profit last year - but slumped to a £2.2m pre-tax loss following amortisation relating to a management buyout in 2005, before the firm floated. Chief financial officer Tony Kirkbright said there would be one final £2.2m amortisation during the second half, after which he said the bottom line would reflect the cash generation of the business.

Superglass issued a profits warning last month, highlighting the slow up-take of Cert, so the interim results matched the revised City expectations. In November, the firm renegotiated its loan repayments, with McLeod saying the bank had remained supportive during Superglass's production problems over the past year, when both of its furnaces were shut down at different times for repairs. The winter snow wiped £500,000 off Superglass's profits, with rising energy prices partially offset through efficiency savings from the repaired furnaces. McLeod said he was confident of meeting City forecasts for the full year.

[nilip] 28/4/2011 11:45

I have just read through the prev. trading update and todays results again.

I suppose, in fairness, if the results are in line with guidance already notified by the company then the figs are as expected and the market was expecting just that.

If, as the company states, demand from CERT picks up as envisaged ... then, on reflection, the current share price could turn out to have been a great bargain buying opportunity.

Time will tell if this is a bargain buying opportunity or not ?

It does appear as though the share price is starting to tick back up again ...

[topvest] 28/4/2011 10:59

Hmm - continued decline. If there isn't an upturn in the top line sales, this could struggle to repay it's debt. I think I will stay on the sidelines here. Too risky.

[pugugly] 28/4/2011 08:25

nilip:> Agreed - Just had a quick look on fall but can see no reason to buy even at these prices given the continuing pressures on UK house-building and construction industries.

[asparks] 04/4/2011 15:29

the buyer of ROM makes now sense IMO

[asparks] 04/4/2011 15:11

ROMAG has gone under

[asparks] 04/4/2011 15:11

ROMAG has gone under

[dnfa1975] 04/4/2011 14:27

gradually moving up each day. maybe a bid?

[pugugly] 02/3/2011 16:23

TOC:> You have put it far better than I could. Agree 100% -

[theoldcodger] 02/3/2011 12:12

Pugugly, I agree, I'm also slightly surprised that the shares haven't gone even lower after such a poor statement.

On fundamentals I don't see any justification for them trading higher than they were a few months ago and given that the future seems cloudier than ever, probably lower still. The share price really got puffed up by high expectations and the recent SCSW tip and now those expectations have been shown to be unrealistic (for now at least) and with talk of recent "aggressive competition", I would have expected the shares to be lower not higher than the trading range it had for much of last year.

There's no doubt that the company has the potential to be a great recovery stock, if they ever manage to get things right, then as a geared play the share price would motor, but the company has promised jam tomorrow so many times without delivering and with the very high level of borrowing, at this share price (27p) I don't feel the risk/reward ratio is particularly favourable.

The one thing that does intrigue me is the recently declared stake by Guinness Peat Group and the (in my opinion) current relative share price strength. It wouldn't surprise me if Guinness Peat are mopping up more shares at these levels and as a potentially aggressive investor they might well put Superglass "in play".

So the current situation is certainly potentially interesting, but like topvest, I'll be watching from the sidelines for a while at least.

As always, DYOR etc, etc.

Good luck
TOC

[topvest] 01/3/2011 17:00

No mention of covenants either positive or negative. Must be a concern if they aren't able to give a positive statement on this. Will keep wacthing, but stay on the sidelines for now.

[pugugly] 01/3/2011 09:23

very poor ims - Could (imo) still have further to fall (currently 25/27). Main worry for me is the very high level of debt and also lack for CERT visability. OK CERT is pushing up transactions but what happens if it is cut back and also where will revenue come from. PLUS cost pressures from higher energy cost.

(imo & dyor etc)

[dnfa1975] 17/2/2011 07:48

looks poised

[nilip] 15/2/2011 11:21

C'est la vive :-)

[dnfa1975] 12/2/2011 09:21

ion buys Eaga for £300m in bet on 'green home' revolution
The drive among companies to cut their fuel bills has led Carillion to buy energy services company Eaga for £300m.

[napoleon 14th] 10/2/2011 21:26

Orb1 - I get as confused as ol' McDonald in January - everyone talking about me non-stop!
& a Nap-nap here, & a Nap-nap there, & a nap here, nap there, napnap everywhere.
Nothing I do seems to stop them either!

Oh, well,...........

[dnfa1975] 10/2/2011 10:06

abut to take off imho

[dnfa1975] 26/1/2011 20:26

touching the highs and that is before CERT takes off

[dnfa1975] 24/1/2011 08:15

up on the bid early doors

[orb1] 18/1/2011 13:20

Seems 'NAP' is an abbreviation for the 5 player card game Napoleon...