Steppe Cement Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 15/1/2024 16:15

Kazakhstan stockmarket index hit another new high today. Now up 33% since 01/01/23. During that time, the Tenge has strengthened marginally against the $.

[tigerbythetail] 15/1/2024 13:01

My short term and medium term expectations for STCM in conflict here.
Short term I can see why this might drop further - management hasn't given investors any good reason to hold onto these shares for now. The delay in the dividend payment makes management look incompetent.
However, medium term this is a good solid business. And once management sort the corporate structure issue out there could be a "double dividend" paid out this year that might amount to around 25% of the current share price.
Conclusion: I'm looking to buy. But not today. Not yet.

[wilo101] 15/1/2024 10:43

Cement Hoppers and hundreds of them, for transport, rail more efficient than trucks for bulk commodities

[premium beeks] 15/1/2024 09:45

:)Best wishesResponsible Lad

[return_of_the_apeman] 13/1/2024 14:04

LOL Beeks you got downvoted

Rgds

Clerman

[renewed1] 13/1/2024 13:16

Gb ..OK but why then spend £M on rail trucks??

[premium beeks] 13/1/2024 12:32

Hi Apeman, hope you are well.Exactly right. It's worth carefully waiting for the news of tax issues resolved before buying back in. I'd expect that will be south of here as without the divis there is no reason to hold.

[return_of_the_apeman] 13/1/2024 12:10

I am not sure of the company structure of CAML, but they have operations in Kaz and have had no issues paying dividends to my knowledge

I guess it's not as simple to follow their model especially as the incorporated Malaysian entity may suit some shareholders, but it's easy to see why the reverse side of the coin is putting off other investors

No doubt a better 2nd half which is very encouraging indeed, however a period of not being able to pass on costs to consumers to protect margins exposes risk with inflation still high in what previously was a steady and boring (in a good way)company

Some might fear, perhaps unjustly, a low ball take out by insiders as value continues to accrue on the balance sheet, look no further than the despicable actions at SHG, this will present an opportunity to buy for others

Until they sort the tax issues, there is no distributed income

The share price will bottom just before the tax issues are sorted or it becomes to cheap for the market to resist, perhaps we are not there yet as the company does not know how to do this and tax advisers are usually paid by the hour

The company is definitely in a better place following this rns but the share price has gone down which is confusing and unfair. The sell on news brigade has always existed, perhaps the low volume exaggerates their effect

Perhaps the 18p support on the chart will offer the necessary support if it gets there

gla

[wilo101] 13/1/2024 02:52

Nothing to worry about, good given the War and Sentiment towards the Region, 2022 and 2023 dividends already in the bag, just the headless chickens to sort out the best structure for tax

[king suarez] 13/1/2024 01:09

We could use a graph of the cost and profit per tonne too, to complete the picture?

[gb904150] 12/1/2024 21:35

Gloomy tone just in how it is presented. Even if factual:

Revenue....which was 7% lower YoY.
Volume.....3% lower than 2022.
Avg. delivered price......representing a 4% decrease.
EXW price. $43 vs $45 last year.
Kaz cement market consumption.....11.5m tonnes vs 11.6m tonnes
Inflation down to 9.8% (but doesn't say what from....even though it was 20.3%!)

My point is, they could easily have pointed to several positives, namely:

- significant improvement in H2 vs H1. Higher volumes and at higher margins.
- Inflation down to 9.8% in 2022 vs 20.3% in 2022. That's a huge improvement.
- Railway network congestion in 2022 was no longer the case in 2023 (I assume)
- Robust economy and economic outlook in Kaz (as you mentioned Aleman)
- KZT seems very stable vs USD compared to previous years

Even just to compare to the equivalent statement last year they opened more positively:




Steppe Cement Limited ("Steppe Cement") recorded good revenue growth in 2022 with positive market conditions for the business. The focus has been on the domestic market where Steppe Cement's market share remains resilient.

There were extreme weather conditions in Kazakhstan and logistical difficulties in the railway network in November and December 2022. The board is working to try to minimise their impact in 2023.

That said this part was very positive. Completion of the Dec 2023 work, the timing of the full maintenance programme, the prospect of operating 'at full efficiency over the current year' and the limited capex reqd in 2024.


The Company successfully completed the modification of the pre-calciner in Line 6 in December 2023 which will allow clinker production to increase whilst reducing energy consumption. Additionally, the Company was able to complete its full annual maintenance programme before the extreme winter conditions set in, which should allow the factory to operate at full efficiency over the current year. The Company will continue a limited capex program in 2024 with the installation of a raw mill separator in Line 6, which is expected to be completed by the summer of 2024.

It just came across gloomy but perhaps isn't. Buying opportunity then?!

renewed1.....as to the cost inefficiencies of transporting cement.

I think that is purely because cement is a low cost, heavy, bulky product. Cement doesn't travel well. Therefore you have regional monopolies. It is inefficient to truck it long distances....you get up to, say 500KM.....then you run into your regional competitor who has the competitive edge in that region/radius.

[renewed1] 12/1/2024 16:58

I dont get the "cost inefficiencies of transporting cement long distances" I thought
they spent a £1M buying trucks two years ago to transport the cement???

[aleman] 12/1/2024 16:25

Gloomy tone? I thought it looked good as soon as I glanced at it. Top line revenue was only down due to a very poor H1. H2 looks pretty good. H1 turnover was 13% down but H2 looks to be, if I am correct, about 1.5% down. H1 was breakeven but had some minor cost exceptionals in it which they suggested would not happen again in H2. I imagine the bottom line for H2 should be quite good. The shares are way below book as if the company is making a loss but even the poor H1 did not. To fall further today after an apparently good H2 seems very strange in the absence of other news. H2 looks MUCH better than H1 if you break the numbers out, though costs have to be confirmed, but they suggested H2 would be a better trend for costs than H1 at the interims.
.

The Company continued its focus on the domestic market in Kazakhstan, due to increasing logistical and cost inefficiencies of transporting cement long distances / internationally. This resulted in reduced top-line revenue but is expected to translate into higher margins.

Interims:

Volumes are recovering in the second half of the current year and prices have been slightly increased, while the cost of production is improving as well.

[gb904150] 12/1/2024 16:11

Yes, as you'd pointed out recently H2 has been far better than H1.

1.63m tonnes for the year.

Of which 749,034 was in H1.
Leaving 880,966 in H2.

So significantly higher volumes. And with the KZT pretty stable vs USD.

Avg delivered price was $50.
Which on 880,966 would give H2 revs approx $44m.

As you say, although the tone was gloomy the performance was pretty good. Shame that no outlook was given....but they're not exactly masters of forward guidance unlike the dear Fed.

[riddlerone] 12/1/2024 10:47

Dont see any mention in the previous years of cash positions either so why should they do it now,

[zangdook] 12/1/2024 10:41

They never mention dividends in trading updates - we had an RNS about dividends less than a month ago.

[gb904150] 12/1/2024 10:30

Yes, and no outlook for the next year. In fact....it seems to be almost deliberately downbeat.

Almost as if they are conserving cash, holding on to the divi, then perhaps with a view to taking the company private later in the year?

[king suarez] 12/1/2024 10:22

No mention of the current cash position or update on the divi...

[1hercule] 12/1/2024 10:19

trading update

[wind dancer] 10/1/2024 20:43

Another Mattjos pie in the sky!
Glad to be out, didn’t make it in time at CNG unfortunately.
FILTERED

[stun12] 10/1/2024 14:45

Hardly any volume either. Biggest single trade this year has been 30,000 shares.

Perhaps he's washing down his breakfast with a few pints?

[zangdook] 10/1/2024 14:42

not on market they aren't, unless it's delayed

[gb904150] 10/1/2024 14:39

care to add more? The share price action suggests otherwise!