Steppe Cement Share Discussion Threads

[azalea] 20/12/2015 12:18

Mach 100. I am pleased for you.

If the BoD were to decide not to pay a div in this financial year(ending December),it might be for the reason you suggest; in which case it would also present a better financial picture to any would be bidder. The BoD has already announced putting off the purchase of a further 100 rail wagons costing $5m. All of which then raises the question, if there is no dividend, then why did Mr Hamzah and Neon Liberty recently up their stakes and no major holder has sold? We should get an update next month, however, barring a bid in the meantime, we will very likely have to wait for the Preliminary results to find out the answer.

[mach100] 19/12/2015 13:29

Yes, a better direction of travel now Azalea. I have a bit of a buffer zone from my sop-loss price so am sitting a bit prettier now. Azalea, do you think there will be a divi in the next calendar year or more paying down of debt instead? I suppose a Tenge devaluation will mean it is more likely to pay down debt.

[azalea] 18/12/2015 15:19

A small 10K buy @ 14p, has pushed the bid up a tad to 13.6p.

Edit: Or was it the 25k rollover that followed, which cause the indicated bid to rise off the bottom.

[azalea] 14/12/2015 17:04

I do not see it going private, a foreign bid yes. In one way or another, there were over 12.6m shares traded on 10/12. which included Neon's purchase -1m @ 14p, 679,871 @ 13.75p. Which leaves 0.9m @ 14p and the rest @ 13.75p, unaccounted for.
At the very least someone else bought 0.9m. The rest may have been roll overs, or trades between MM.

EDIT. FWIW.
A voluntary decision by the BoD to take the company private, would require 75% of shareholders to agree.

[mattjos] 14/12/2015 16:22

I have no idea. If the FED increases rate3s (as it looks virtually guaranteed to do now) & oil remains under pressure, then the pressure on the Tenge will stay like this & who knows where it will end up.
They do not seem to have any natural hedging in their business model ... Revs are in Tenge & debt is un US$ (& presumably so too the interest thereon).
As attractive as the opportunity may be with regards the new plant and the railwagons and the growth on the market etc. I don't see how these offset the currency risk at present.
I'm sure it will become clearer once the Calendar year is out the way as some of this may be nothing more than tax related buying/selling.
If it does get taken private then it certainly wont the first to have gone that way this year.

[azalea] 14/12/2015 14:56

So why are they buying?

[mattjos] 14/12/2015 14:53

but the cost of its debt keeps going up

[azalea] 14/12/2015 14:47

The cheaper the Tenge, the more attractive to a bid by foreign cement manufacturer- a Chinese one sitting across the border with a modern rail freight link between the two countries, would fit the bill. Why else would Mr Hamzah and Neon Liberty up their holdings by a total of 5,254 872 shares, in the last three weeks? It is not as if these two holders were unaware of the exchange rates. STCM is a company with highly efficient,modern, low cost production plants that are likely to be superior to most Chinese producers.

[azalea] 14/12/2015 09:23

Mach 100
Very interesting Rns today, with Neon Liberty Capital adding 1,679,871 @ 14p(total now 9,679,871(4.42%); which would partly explain the 9.7m shares traded on 10/12? Clearly,not a purchase made on a whim; so there has to be something afoot, if nothing else, at the very least good news on the production front. However, on the optimistic side, I think there could be more to it. The market has not reacted (yet), but i strongly believe patience here will be rewarded. Each to their own.

[mach100] 12/12/2015 18:29

Good post Azalea. Thanks! Excellent points made by you and I hope 2016 will see a move away from my stop loss. I am going to be ruthless though and won't move my stop loss down having bought at 33.5p. Of course the buying by Mr Hamza and the funds you mentioned haven't underpinned the share price to date so some sort of catalyst is required to send this upwards. You would have thought the huge yield would underpin it so there may well be something the market sees that we are not seeing, Let's see if 2016 brings a rerate.

[leonasdad] 12/12/2015 12:08

depends if Mr Hamzah has ever moved goal posts

[mach100] 11/12/2015 18:34

azalea. Still in but hovering on the trap door.It isn't stock specific in that I have looked back over my trading history and I would have done far better by having stop losses and cut my losses. This share has been very disappointing indeed in performance terms and there must be a point where it becomes a hopeless hope. I am still in because there may be a recovery and the bid is 13.24p as you state. Interesting trades here and one this may be bought out. I will continue to hold until sellers get 12p and then I am out. But I hope it starts to regain ground. I appreciate your posts here as always.

[azalea] 11/12/2015 17:26

A day late posting of a 750k trade(buy) at 13.75p 08:38. 10/12. Next week we might learn to whom some of the big buys this week, belong to.

The single trade today was a sell @ 13.35p

[azalea] 10/12/2015 10:30

No problem doing a dummy sale of 73k @ 13.35p.

$1= 307 Tenge

[azalea] 10/12/2015 10:22

And another 1.9m shares traded. this time @ 14p, total so far today, 9.71m.

[azalea] 10/12/2015 09:15

Since my last post, three trades have been posted all timed at 9.09hrs, totalling 3.51m shares. Interesting to say the least.

[azalea] 10/12/2015 09:07

MACH100
So, are you out now?

Well, I do not know what to make of the two 2.15m @ 13.75 trades this morning timed a minute apart Even so, with the kind of volumes being traded of late, it continues to suggest to me that something is going on. An rns would be most useful.

[mach100] 09/12/2015 20:01

azales I mean when it hits 12p bid I am out to cut my losses.

[azalea] 09/12/2015 10:57

Mid January, we should get a preliminary update for the year ending 31/12/2015

[azalea] 09/12/2015 09:31

Mach 100
You dont' mean a bid price of 12p, do you. It's already 13p

[mach100] 08/12/2015 19:39

Good posts Azalea, This is perilously close to me cutting my losses I must say. I have collected a few divis but the share price is disastrous. I hope it recovers from here but if it hits 12p I am out, having bought at 33p.

[azalea] 08/12/2015 09:40

An interesting situation in the making.
Following Mr Hamzah recent 3.575m purchase, if any of the very recent large buys are also of his doing, then it brings him ever closer to the 30% level In which case there are a number of considerations that come into play. If there is no RNS , it might be because the percentage increase is not large enough.

1.In the case of STCM, is it subject to the rule that a 30% holding automatically triggers a bid?

2.If Q1, is affirmative,is Mr Hamzah intending to make a bid? If not, is he topping up his holding in the belief that the share price is too cheap vis a vis the NAV of 43p. add to that, he might well be aware that one or more parties are showing an interest of making a bid. With the value of the Chinese Yuan having been reduced and set to become a reserve currency, a Chinese cement company already importing into KZT, might just fit the bill.

3. Have the latest large buys been made by current major holders, or new comers, both of whom believe that one way or another there is money to be made in the near term?

4. The quality of the assets are very solid - 300 new rail wagons, that are creating $1m in savings each year from having to repair, service and hire older wagons. Huge investments have been made in converting two production wet lines into two modern highly productive and efficient dry lines.

5. Disregarding the latest large buys, I calculate the holdings of major holders now total 77.9%.

[hari] 08/12/2015 08:12

However as you stated you can sell @12.7P..but now sell at 13p!
so there is buyer and MM want stock