Star Energy Share Discussion Threads

[dannymaz89] 26/3/2024 07:59

operational and market performance mismatch Canaccord Genuity view Star's recent updates highlight the progress made across the company's diverse UK onshore oil and gas production base and in the Croatian geothermal business. Over the past year, the company has turned around a declining UK production profile for the first time in many years, through a combination of greater focus on incremental low-cost enhancements to well performance and significantly improved surface facilities efficiencies and uptime. That has clearly borne fruit over the past 12+ months, and we think there is plenty of scope to maintain that elevated performance at least over the next few years. That is important because while the company sees longer-term growth through its geothermal businesses, it is the UK conventional hydrocarbons that provide the backbone of cashflow in the nearer-term. We think the progress made by Star in the UK and in Croatia is substantial, and certainly not reflected in the recent market performance. We maintain our BUY rating, and though we trim our risked NPV10 target price to 65p (from 73p) to reflect the slow pace of progress (unrelated to Star) of the UK geothermal business, we think the company's valuation footing has improved significantly over the past year. Conventional production Productivity gains: FY23 company expected c.2.09 kboed, better than early year c.2.0 kboed guidance. That rate implies higher production in H2 than H1 (2.07 kboed), itself a positive indicator. As a result, 2023 output is set to be the best since 2019. The signs are that a rolling programme of continued smaller scale investment - workovers and infrastructure optimisation - can be expected to deliver similar stable production levels for several years. New projects would provide further upside, but those probably require additional financing. Costs: Star has also done a good job on operating cost control, which continue around $40/boe despite the inflationary environment. Geothermal projects Croatia: Star only entered the country in August through the acquisition of 51% of local company A14 Energy which holds the Ernestinovo geothermal exploration licence. Since then the company has been awarded two further licences, prepared a wellsite for testing of Ernestinovo-3, and mobilised a rig to test flow rates (results expected early 2024). A successful outcome can be expected to lead to application for a long-term exploitation licence. UK: That progress contrasts starkly with activity levels in the UK, where a combination of factors - permitting, lack of government funding distribution, bureaucracy - have all conspired to hamper any real progress. Valuation underpinning The benefits of the renewed vigour applied to the UK oil and gas assets - both improved productivity and cost control - are critical to the underlying value of Star. Given the unsurprisingly relatively high operating costs of small fields onshore UK and the significant element of fixed costs, squeezing the most from the assets is critical to value. Star has done an excellent job recently. We recognise the high degree of valuation gearing to oil price changes, but our modelling suggests that the current market value can be supported by an LT oil price (from 2024) of close to $60/bbl, assigning no value to further larger UK oil and gas project development nor the UK or Croatian geothermal businesses. In our view, the market discount to an improving story with solid valuation underpinnings is too stretched.

[dannymaz89] 25/3/2024 13:37

https://x.com/smackeraim/status/1772247144277086528?s=46&t=4s-AQzZhMmeWz3Ire1AEsATg group

[dannymaz89] 25/3/2024 12:31

Corringham, Lincolnshire: New well planned for the second half of the year. Planning and permitting in place. If successful, this would add 110 barrels per day, IGas said.Glentworth, Lincolnshire: Planning application for a new wellsite due to be heard by Lincolnshire County Council in April 2023. If successful, the site could produce 200 barrels/day, IGas said, and further drilling could add an extra 500 barrels/day.They got planning btw:https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/igas-gets-planning-consent-for-new-oil-well-site-in-gainsborough-uk/

[smackeraim] 25/3/2024 09:28

Looking much better now. Finally. Nice summary in a tweet I noticed. https://x.com/johnm_aim/status/1769814878917673075?s=46#star - reading up on this Co. Thinking current seller creating an opportunityProducer with c2kboepd in UKMore importantly, is using free cashflows to transition to geothermal, with assets in UK & CroatiaThis investormeetco presentation is worth a watch@Starenergygroup

[dannymaz89] 25/3/2024 07:50

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysts-optimistic-well-see-profit-120424538.html#:~:text=According%20to%20the%202%20industry,months%20from%20now%20or%20less.

[dannymaz89] 24/3/2024 19:28

Newsflow for STAR- tr1 sand grove out- end of year accounts to December this week or next- results from Croatia geothermal drill this week or next- green network energy grants for the 3 already awarded sites- activate mou with SSE- drilling in glentworth for an extra 200-700 boepd- hydrogen storage application

[jack007] 24/3/2024 19:03

Good time to get in. Sell on news spike and buy again

[dannymaz89] 23/3/2024 15:00

#STAR£10m mcap highs of £100m+UKs largest listed UK land producer 2000-2200 boepd, cash generator/profitable, reinvesting into abandonment/green energy (hydrogen,ccs, geothermal and solar)/new oil and gas generation on current uk on land assetsOn track to deliver an extra 200-800 boepd (all paid out of cashflow) taking them to 2500-3000 boepd Geothermal unseen on UK market, operate in Croatia and UK. UK assets in partnership with SSE as offtake profit potential of £14m+ on each plantRBL debt facility available up to £17m only £2m usedReason it's cheap: used to be called IGAS and had the largest uk fracking asset capable of generating enough gas for the uk for 19 years, tr1s 20%+ (sand grove and Bank of America) bought in off the back of fracking and had to exit due to the ban, subsequently rebranded and forgotten

[bad gateway] 20/3/2024 08:34

It might not be pie in the sky. Croatia pay a premium for leccie through geothermal methods and it does seem well promoted there.
No way of knowing til they update though. That seems to be the main issue?

[bsg] 20/3/2024 08:28

Blowing all their oil revenue with pie in the sky projects. Why not stick to what they know. Oil will still be required for many a decade yet. IMO.

[bri15] 16/3/2024 11:46

The UK small cap "investing" market is dying,can you imagine what the value of this company would be in America Barony,any hint of something like that happening and I'd be straight back in this.

[barony] 16/3/2024 10:04

Relist in USA.

[dannymaz89] 15/3/2024 14:37

That heavy forced seller.. market will correct when results land end of the month

[dannymaz89] 15/3/2024 13:49

Geothermal drilling in Croatia 3x licences with government backingGeothermal drilling in the uk with #SSE as partner 3x permits 35 permits preferred bidderHydrogen/carbon capture JV with CadentSolar panel JVAll funded via cash flow

[dannymaz89] 15/3/2024 13:33

AXL (still crazy undervalued)70m mcap3300 boepdPXEN 17m mcap2m revs per quarter (STAR 11-15m)Small debtANGS 17m mcap1400 boepdMountains of horrendous debt/dilutionSTAR10m mcap2000-2200 boepdDebt (RBL 4% libor) 2m-zeroForecast 2500 boepd+ by year end

[bri15] 15/3/2024 13:18

Good luck to you too.

[dannymaz89] 15/3/2024 13:11

https://x.com/theunsophistic2/status/1768625560819814471?s=46&t=4s-AQzZhMmeWz3Ire1AEsA

[ozzywalker] 15/3/2024 12:55

Looks like Bri got to boiling point :)

[smackeraim] 15/3/2024 12:52

Good luck Bri

[smackeraim] 15/3/2024 09:53

Blue today. Net debt has been paid down aggressively over last couple yrs. They stated in presentation before xmas they expect to have it paid down by June. That level of cash generation will be enormous for co at 10m market cap, quite mad. Tuck em away.Net debtNov 23 update: GBP2.6 million22 Finals: GBP6.1m21 Finals: GBP12.2m

[jack007] 15/3/2024 09:51

Smoke and mirrors

[smackeraim] 15/3/2024 09:45

Nice to see a little blue.

[sea7] 13/3/2024 10:06

irrespective of the investment case - the stock has a nanocap and isn't suitable for larger funds to invest in.

[sea7] 13/3/2024 10:05

Sandgrove are selling quite simply because they aren't after exposure to geothermal and I think the fund they hold their stock in, doesn't have geothermal in its criteria.

The ceo said as much in an interview back in sept - someone alluded to this on this board a while ago.