Stanley Gibbons Share Discussion Threads

[yf23_1] 12/8/2004 13:35

If it "nullifies the signals up to that point", then it would provide a new signal wouldn't it ?

[popgunn] 12/8/2004 12:59

But then with small illiquid stocks, one disproportionately big institutional move drowns out the small players and nullifies the signals up to that point. What you can do is gauge supply/demand, accumulation/distribution which afaik is likely to work better than applying TA.

[yf23_1] 12/8/2004 01:09

Kael
You may well be right, as I would say that with small illiquid stocks, the MMs have more control and smallish volumes could result in a lot of false signals.
However, my empirical evidence suggests that certain of the candlestick signals work well with both small and large stocks.
Even with small stocks, candlesticks give an insight into the investor psychology of the crowd.
In fact with the smaller stocks, the type of investor is more prone to follow the crowd and it is therefore easier to use the signals than with larger stocks.
With smaller stocks it is also easier to detect what larger volume players (institutional interest) are doing amongst the smaller retail crowd.

[kael] 11/8/2004 23:04

May I just interject here and say that due to the nature of small, illiquid stocks, the charting patterns that you are associating with them have a higher rate of failue than those of large, liquid ones, such as the one you are drawing comparison to. Better to be precautionary.

[yf23_1] 11/8/2004 23:01

Just as an example....


We can see clearly 2 low points defined by bullish hammers (mid march and mid may) and 3 high points defined by shooting star type formations (intra-day price spike rejection) in April, end-June and end-July.

[yf23_1] 11/8/2004 22:47

andrewhbruce
I seriously suggest you research candlesticks, they give a lot more information than plain line charts, very obvious pointers to subsequent lows and highs.
For example, on a line chart the action would just be flat (ignoring the ex-div adj) as if nothing happened, but in reality there was a rejection of a spike low which you will not see.

[andrewhbruce] 11/8/2004 18:35

yf....

pl define bullish hammer for the ignorant!!!

[yf23_1] 11/8/2004 18:16

nice action today - I was tempted to buy at the intra low
we end up with a bullish hammer - nice


I think the MMs may have been trying it on with the less experienced not knowing why the drop. Well, it didn't work did it.

[ukhawk] 11/8/2004 17:44

Large ??? LOL

[ukhawk] 11/8/2004 16:22

Kael, back in ? One or two large buys not showing yet.

[kael] 11/8/2004 15:44

Unfortunately CT, growth stocks are out of fashion atm.

[clocktower] 11/8/2004 15:43

Yes ukh.

Trouble on this one now is the directors may unload on the next big bounce.If it falls more I may get back in that said.

GLD....Only with ones that I do not trade with but if they keep going..I may part with them.

Looking for new growth stocks at present. I do like one that divina posted about but still looking at it.

[gengulphus] 11/8/2004 15:38

"Do you know what the CGT situation is on Investment grade stamps?"

Probably uses the standard "non business asset" rules, unless you can somehow make them into a "business asset". Wouldn't be easy, I suspect - most ways of using them in a business would end up trading them - though maybe you could set up as a stamp valuer in competition with SG, with your own "business asset" reference collection? ;-)

Should add that I'm out of the aspects of CGT that I'm knowledgable about and so am guessing! If you actually want to do anything along these lines, consult the Inland Revenue or a tax expert.

Gengulphus

[getscenic] 11/8/2004 14:58

Gengulphus,

I stand here foot in mouth.

Do you know what the CGT situation is on Investment grade stamps?

rds

[ukhawk] 11/8/2004 13:29

Ct, looks like a few T+ closing. If you do the sums then this is now on a fwd p/e of about 12, which is cheap for a growth stock. The question is how much growth ? If you believe SG can expand their mkts into places like India, etc, and continue to progress "investment portfolios" then its very cheap, IMO.

So, yes, it will bounce !

ps. Nice result on GLD, you still in ?

[clocktower] 11/8/2004 13:15

As expected, nice profit...will it bounce?

[gengulphus] 11/8/2004 12:25

getscenic,

"If you can live without the div and spec div. 13th august."

Uh, no. August 13th is the record date and is pretty much irrelevant - it affects some details of how dividends get to the people they belong to, but not who they belong to. The ex-dividend date is today: you can no longer buy the shares with the dividends attached, so if you cannot live without them, you're already too late...

Gengulphus

[xdavid] 11/8/2004 10:07

Comdirect: 10:00
Offer price: 15k @ 93.5
Bid price: 25k @ 90.64
Mid: 92, spread 2.85p

MMs are looking to make extra 1p out of those looking to exit after divi. 'Mid' currently 8.5p (divi) below yesterday but they have widened the spread below this. Offer margin generally the same as last few weeks.

[ukhawk] 11/8/2004 09:02

Yes, if you timed it perfectly you could have got out at 105, back in this morning at 90, minus 8.5 gives you 6.5, forgetting tax,trading,etc.

[2magpies] 11/8/2004 08:53

So, all those who sold over the last seven days can now buy back and make a nice cash profit, thank you very much!

Thereby they reduce the effective cost of their holdings. Which must be nice.

[ukhawk] 11/8/2004 08:51

Yep, there'll be quite a few trades not showing yet, might not be easy working out what they were though !!!

[kael] 11/8/2004 08:48

Give it an hour and fifteen.

[ukhawk] 11/8/2004 08:47

Comdirect now 15k @ 93.5 and 25k @ 90.64. Surprising you can only pick up 15k.