Stanley Gibbons Share Discussion Threads

[kael] 05/8/2004 08:39

I base that over the fact that generally mm's like to keep an even keel. I have logs backdated to June and like I said, its roughly evens, at best there is 100K skew to they buy sided.

[gregory0106] 05/8/2004 08:38

Shares Says - Rating demanding, but there is scope for further appreciation. They give it as a buy recommendation (and the Shares writter declares they own shares themselves)

[popgunn] 05/8/2004 08:19

Kael - "Buys far outweigh the sells over the long term". Do you base that on there being a large amount of unplaced shares at some time in the past or something else, given that with a finite number of shares and MMs wanting to keep balanced, buys and sells generally match?

[nurdin] 05/8/2004 07:17

Anyone take the Share Magazine? Curious to know what they have to say if anything...

[gengulphus] 05/8/2004 02:36

xdavid,

"Ok, here's a theory for the larger buys... :o) (one for gengulphus! ;-)
If you are sitting on a potential CGT payment, would it not be worth the trading costs to buy a stack of SGI, wait for the ex-div date then sell at the mark down price for a capital 'loss' (a sizeable one due to high divi). For lower rate tax payer, divi is effectively non-taxable & capital loss used to reduce CGT - win, win...?"

I doubt it's the main motivation. Per share, a UK-based higher-rate taxpayer would save 3.4p of CGT and pay 2.125p income tax on the dividend. They would also pay a bit over 0.5p stamp duty. Net saving maybe 0.75p per share, not enough to cover the spread, let alone the commission..

For a UK-based basic-rate taxpayer, the CGT saving is 1.7p and there is no income tax. With stamp duty as before, the net saving is a bit under 1.2p per share, still not enough to cover the trading costs.

I won't try to do any calculations for non-UK-based taxpayers - I don't know enough about the tax rates for the plausible countries.

However, it might be a secondary motivation. Someone buying the share for a short-term trade based on its upwards momentum might be quite pleased to have the Chancellor paying most of the trading costs... :-)

Gengulphus

[barnetpeter] 04/8/2004 20:43

Yes Nurdin - still holding.

You were right all along Kael. I got it wrong - what a real big shame!

[kael] 04/8/2004 20:38

LOL I remember bp harping on about 90p being fair value!

I also remember him scoffing at my 120p target :-P getting quite close to it now ;)

[nurdin] 04/8/2004 20:12

lol barnetpeter....the trick is to look at the broader picture...and talk to the Directors!

ps..you still in?

[barnetpeter] 04/8/2004 19:54

Nurdin - I told you at about the 30p level this would be a steady stock that would only rise a little this year and I had tucked it away coz it was not very exciting and ...

See? I was confident all the time of a 4 bagger ("no you weren't. That chap Nurdin told you").

[ukhawk] 04/8/2004 18:40

It tells you a lot that they got the full 105p for the 100k (if it is them). I know they have to sell into a rising mkt, but with possible Shares/IC updates in the next couple of days I would have thought that they would have waited a few days.

All good news though, new shareholder base all with higher expectations.

[kael] 04/8/2004 18:39

Righty, just gone through it all - at a very basic estimate, its evens. Total trades from beginning July = 1.9mil.

Of course we have had half of the volume roughly over the last 10 trading days.

Again at a rough estimate, buys are favoured by around 10% ,but if you allow for a 10% error, then its evens.

Strong support will be generated from this breakout imo.

[kael] 04/8/2004 17:35

At a guess I'd say MSSL are top slicing. But who knows? The more pertinent fact is the price action. Buys far outweigh the sells over the long term. New support forming imo.

btw sgi covered in Shares tomorrow?

[ukhawk] 04/8/2004 17:27

See those late trades ? Not surprising really.

[kael] 04/8/2004 17:25

nurdin - exactly. Solid companies growing EPS at over 80% for two years dont come cheap! If they do, I'd be the first to buy them, the whole company!

[nurdin] 04/8/2004 17:20

Todays buys suggests that there are some new and astute investors prepared to build decent stakes around and above 100p.Doubt very much they would want to sell ahead of the divi, CT.My guess is they will take the divi,wait for the price drop and top up again...

[clocktower] 04/8/2004 17:15

What you must remember xdavid is that a lot of these held by Channel Island residents and capital profit or loss has no effect..divi`s get taxed as is non earned income. So I think you will see a lot sold just before divi...so watch out.

[kael] 04/8/2004 17:12

Huge (for sgi) volume again today higher than results I expect.

I would say your theory xdavid is sound.

[xdavid] 04/8/2004 17:07

Ok, here's a theory for the larger buys... :o) (one for gengulphus! ;-)
If you are sitting on a potential CGT payment, would it not be worth the trading costs to buy a stack of SGI, wait for the ex-div date then sell at the mark down price for a capital 'loss' (a sizeable one due to high divi). For lower rate tax payer, divi is effectively non-taxable & capital loss used to reduce CGT - win, win...?

[nurdin] 04/8/2004 16:54

Bought around 40p....and pleased with my returns so far.But I am holding on for £2 next year...:o)

[kael] 04/8/2004 16:47

Ill update my trades spreadsheet tonight, see if I can work out what state the mms are in. I know analysing trades is not a particulary effective method of analysis, but with a largish enough spread to determine buy and sell trades, coupled with a list of quote changes, should be possible to determine something :)

Edit: Also xdavid, now that SGI is over £1, it is out of the penny share class - good to see! It will increase the amount of investors who will see the stock on their screen, price being a good filter. Even though it may seem irrelevant, a price has psychological attatchments - e.g. £1.00

[xdavid] 04/8/2004 16:45

I'm with you Kael re the trading pattern. But this time (last few days) it has felt slightly different... Volumes are higher and continuing longer after the 'news', trades are for larger amounts. I feel that there is now a different type of holder coming onto the stock. I actually expected a retracement today. Maybe the same change in patterns have caught out the MMs...
Then again, maybe the upcoming ex-div date is interfering with the normal 'signals'...
Don't know, don't really care :-)

[ukhawk] 04/8/2004 16:41

Kael, very diplomatic !

These are special times, the special divi has made a lot of people take a look, and they've all worked out the huge potential here. Only known brand in the world market, and they only have 1% of it ! The infrastructure is in place, and it'll all go to the bottom-line.

[kael] 04/8/2004 16:28

If you think so ;)

SGI trades like this - look at the long term chart, goes up 10%+ then drops a 1p or 2p before the next move up. There was an early drop this morning, it bounced and will close above £1 - its broken out and on big volume.

[gregory0106] 04/8/2004 16:24

Bid price has droped a 1p - perhaps the buy orders are thinning out?