Srt Marine Systems Share Discussion Threads

[pinkfoot2] 20/10/2018 13:06

Agreed.There is nothing wrong with invoice discounting or credit guarantees.Its cheap finance in reality

[lavalmy] 20/10/2018 12:52

If the company signs the Philippines contract in November as expected, then it will be cashflow positive in December. As to whether they decide to get credit insurance for the M/E projects, it might look like they go backwards again as any debtors will still stay on the books but could be converted to cash via financing. As cash would be coming from an increase in debt, some will see that as wonga financing, others as what it actually is.

[pinkfoot2] 20/10/2018 12:34

As a long term shareholder,I would be happy with a nice steady flow of wins.Most importantly,the company needs to get into positive cashflow and remain there.

[lavalmy] 20/10/2018 12:30

The problem with that analysis is that the individual projects are of such a size and profitability that renders talk about walking/running irrelevant. The company has £140 million odd of business at the procurement stage, as well as much more on the way and the very strong likelihood of recurring revenues. Or £70 million at typical gross margins to cover excess overheads of around £3.5 million p.a.

[pinkfoot2] 20/10/2018 12:08

Apologies Countryman-£45m market cap.My maths wrong.

[pinkfoot2] 20/10/2018 12:00

The drums do seem to be beating a bit louder Countryman but do you agree a lot of jam is already built into the market cap?£60m market cap for a business that turned over only £5m and lost £5m in 2018 is aggressive.

The company needs to deliver on 2019 forecasts,get cash positive and walk before running in my view.

[countryman5] 20/10/2018 10:46

Both the SRT team and long term shareholders have been waiting a long time for the systems contracts contained in the VSOP to arrive. The proverbial jam. Those that attend AGM's and keep their ears to the ground recognise the increasing tempo and sense imminence. My understanding is that senior management will be rewarded when the share price advances beyond the thresholds of 50p, 75p and 125p. Likewise shareholders will be rewarded at the same time. Predicting the timing of the 125p threshold is futile but the eventual Broker update for the next financial year will be revealing. However,I confidently predict that this board will be dominated with a discussion of dividends V share buy back when the contracts kick in.

[countryman5] 19/10/2018 20:37

We have learn't this week that the US coastguard is going to install SRT's new class A via Raymarine in 2000 boats. Once the Coastguard starts to install SRT kit how many US boats are there in the other 'blue light' agencies? These services include Police, ambulance and fire but obviously the police sector will be the largest. Around the whole of the US could there be 100,000 of such boats, or even more? I imagine that there is a close relationship with the US and Canadian coastguard. How long before Canada starts using the kit?
If I remember correctly Simon spoke about a 'couple' of potential large OEM contracts in the offering. I assume that the US Coastguard is the first one that he was referring to.

[lavalmy] 19/10/2018 15:38

Almost missed this



'Next steps
The Commission is now submitting to the Council the proposals for signature and conclusion of both agreements. Once authorised by the Council, the agreements will be signed and presented to the European Parliament for consent. Once the European Parliament has given its consent, the trade agreement can then be concluded by the Council and enter into force. The investment protection agreement with Vietnam will be ratified by Member States according to their respective internal procedures.'

Yellow card to be fixed soon?

[lavalmy] 19/10/2018 15:17

exactEarth just got a soft loan from the Canadian government of CAD $7.2 over three years starting last February and repayable over 15 years from 2023 (if they still exist). The share price is up accordingly by 72% to 43 cents.

Doesn't mean that they have a business but keeps the wolf from the door. Possibly eases the going concern issues, though of course the cash inflow is directly met by an increase in debt - they may avoid having to raise equity. They do have to pay Harris US$3 million a year once all the satellites are up as well as %age of revenues, so as I say it is still debateable if they have a business that will succeed. There aren't going to be any more big ships mandated to have Class A devices, most of these ships are tracked by multiple sources already and who actually needs to know where they are every second via satellite so much that they are willing to pay for it?

The Class B tracking I regard pretty much as SRT's patch, and most of that via base stations in any case. Plus being able to make sense of it all, the VMS catch reporting and all the rest.

[philburt] 19/10/2018 13:54

9d/boa - agreed. Certainly no criticism implied in my post. We all have different needs and concerns....

[boadicea] 19/10/2018 13:14

9d- Don't apologise for exercising common sense or prudence. We've all done it at times and regretted not doing it at others! Good luck, and I hope that it was not necessary this time, but never regret it.

[philburt] 19/10/2018 11:16

9d - I'm a bit more of a contrarian / black swan kind of investor currently. All my 'speculative' investment money is in SRT alone! Sh*t or Bust, I think it's known as! lol (not for widows & orphans, results may vary, DYOR etc...)

[philburt] 19/10/2018 11:13

9d - Don't worry, I suspect they'll be hovered up in no time :)

[lavalmy] 19/10/2018 11:02

Another bit of core OEM business yet to start is the JRC agreement. It looks like their existing model, the JHS-183, is from 2013 - so SRT inside is yet to come. No idea how significant their AIS sales were, but they only have Class A.

[9degrees] 19/10/2018 09:55

sorry guys just had to sell some to average down in this volatile market place . Too exposed but sadly timing probably awful

[yumyum] 18/10/2018 22:01

...cannot even count the eggs yet, supernumerary.

Egg jam? Chicken jam ?

Hmm..

[supernumerary] 18/10/2018 20:49

I dread the sound of chickens being prematurely counted...

[yump] 18/10/2018 18:57

So the new thread title once it all starts happening will be:

GEOVS will put this into ORBIT

Note obligatory use of capitals ;-)

[countryman5] 18/10/2018 18:32

If these contracts start to arrive and all of the hard work of the SRT team delivers, the market will eventually recognise the forward revenue streams created by satellite data sales and also the constant upgrades that the systems will have bought into. If the Geovs hub remains ahead of the game and globally unique, no one will be able to compete. There is an enormous potential for work beyond the current VSOP. This will be a rare example of Warren Buffet’s ‘moat’. It is also worth noting that because SRT controls the Geovs hub all feeds, cctv,radar, satellite and any other later feeds have to pass through SRT hands. SRT takes it’s generous cut on all equipment sales. When the contracts start to arrive the share price will respond accordingly but let us not forget that the SRT team will have a heavy workload delivering on our behalf

[yumyum] 18/10/2018 17:41

It is all jam tomorrow. I understand that. :-)

[yump] 18/10/2018 17:41

I think in the UK a high multiple depends on a share becoming trendy with some recognisable buzzwords involved, as well as delivering earnings growth. Call me a sceptic if you like, as I am.

Although there are plenty of examples of mundane earnings growth where multiples have been very high eg. IQE.

So once the earnings start growing here, can we 'prime' ST to use a few bits of jargon to capture the interest of the investment community ? Any ideas ?

The Internet of Things being applied to millions of boats...

PS it doesn't have to be accurate

[yumyum] 18/10/2018 17:37

In May 2018:

£132.5m | 7 Projects in specification phase

£167.5m | 11 Projects in planning phase

£119m | 10 Projects in procurement phase

Plus Philo 2 - $30m ?

[yumyum] 18/10/2018 17:32

Trident, I agree of course. A p/e of 30 in due course is perhaps not beyond the realms of plausibility.

I believe Bahrain was underpriced so maybe should actually have a high multiple. The main point is that so far Bahrain has barely been repeatable.

Once the £400m+ and growing verified sales pipeline actually looks plausible (which so far it concretely does not)...so ONCE = IF = WHEN (hopefully)...then I think the show is on the road. With regular per boat income mounting up and multiple projects on the go (lets say 5 in 2020-21) then let's be positive and optimistic on a high p/e multiple.

[trident5] 18/10/2018 17:21

High p/e ratios?

It kind of overlooks that the key sales are rather one off in nature - what earnings multiple would you place on profits of the sale to Bahrain? I think the case could be made that it should be somewhere in the range of 1 to 2.