Srt Marine Systems Share Discussion Threads

[lavalmy] 15/7/2025 16:21:17

A bit of background rather than a hint that something is imminent. Although there was an article on here a while ago confirming that Tanzania was going ahead with a system. The estimates used in the article seem quite sober compared to elsewhere.

[countryman5] 14/7/2025 12:23:38

Baynet, thank you.
Simon Thompson has been a long term follower of SRT. The online comment usually appears in the printed version the following Friday.

[yumyum] 14/7/2025 09:58:11

...at which point Cavendish's price target will have leapt higher. :-)

[baynet] 14/7/2025 09:57:04

Yes LaValmy...no doubt

[lavalmy] 14/7/2025 09:55:08

And beyond.

[baynet] 14/7/2025 09:41:23

Investors chronicles Simon thompson latest write-up



"However, the contract momentum is such that I can see potential for earnings upgrades on further contract awards to drive the share price to Cavendish’s 100p target price. Buy."

[supernumerary] 13/7/2025 12:11:46

I started writing data comms and operating systems software in assembler back in 1968, when system resources were really tight. For some of the work we had to write every instruction of every routine on a blackboard so the whole team could criticise it - egoless programming I think they call it. That was how we learnt, because there was no other way.

Now it's very different. The programmers (coders as they seem to have become) rarely understand real-time operating systems, don't know how to write multi-threading code, use libraries of whose content they really don't have a clue, and now are making everything worse by using AI for a first pass. The resulting godawful mess is what takes all the time to sort out, made even worse if there's an unstable hardware platform to work with. I don't envy the SRT guys at all.

Latency can be anything - generally used to just to mean delay - something takes longer to happen than you want or expect. Latency over comms lines is a huge problem, made worse as you can imagine if there are mobile comms or satellite links to deal with - we had tons of buffering, recovery, and error correction software (for 12oo baud teletype links!) and poor design or coding still led to intermittent lost data.

Slow code not only takes its own time, but can have knock-on effects - lost hardware interrupts for instance, which mean corrupt data, which mean resend/recovery is needed. There are established techniques for highlighting critical areas and fixing them, but it all takes (real) time.

Sorry for the lecture - used to be my specialist subject 30 or 40 years ago...

[alter ego] 13/7/2025 11:44:25

I'm no expert either but the definition of latency according to Fortinet is as fft describes:

[...]

I suppose it may be that in the process of sending data from one place to another there is a delay caused by processing the data before sending it, in which case perhaps there are too many lines of code. Thus causing the latency issue.

[lavalmy] 13/7/2025 11:39:04

When it was being explained to me by ST, there was another person present who was a retired coder. The latency was due to the amount of code and I don't think it was to do with getting a connection. The solution was to reduce the amount of code and that seemed very obvious to the retired coder. I know nothing of these things myself.

[fft] 13/7/2025 10:51:52

Yes. There have been large improvements in processors. And porting the code from an old processor to a a new one of the same family isn't rocket science. But, the word ST used was latency. That is, probably, the time taken to make a connection. Not the speed of the connection or how fast the display works. That is a two way thing. Both the Nexus device and whatever it is trying to connect to and any cabling, masts, whatever in-between.

Latency values have come down over the years, but I don't recall them being that bad 4 years ago on mobile phones, so it sounds like they are trying to just do a software fix in nexus instead of a hardware change along with upgraded software. The software guys probably said it would only be a month or two :-)

Changing the hardware on the other parts of the system shouldn't mean any type approval.

[lavalmy] 13/7/2025 08:06:07

fft

Yes ST did say that it was code that they had to reduce. But since this development started what four years ago?, there must surely have been enormous improvements in processors, hence my suggestion.

[fft] 13/7/2025 07:34:52

I am sure ST said the wait wasnt for hardware changes as that would require new type approval etc. it sounded like they were trying to upgrade software performance wise so it would respond at the same speed as a phone would. The software could be embedded, the operating system, applications etc. this can take a while to improve - and then testing, testing, testing. Optimising code is an art, and more memory quite often masks inefficiencies.

[extrader] 13/7/2025 01:42:42

Perhaps it'd be worthwhile asking SRT (pace LaV's hypothesis) how long type approval for a hardware upgrade usually takes...?

[gerihatrick] 12/7/2025 22:47:35

We were told that there was fine tuning and there would be a delay until summer.We are now being told that there is further significant delay. How long does fine tuning take?

[lavalmy] 12/7/2025 12:05:57

I suppose some people might wonder how Nexus has type approval and is in pre-production if it is not quite finished.

As I understand it the latency which they are trying to improve is down to the length of the software code that is used. The longer the code the longer the processing time. I suppose they could get a quicker chip, but that would probably require going back for type approval again, being a hardware change.

[yumyum] 11/7/2025 19:52:37

And thank you LaValmy for your human insights.

[yump] 11/7/2025 16:47:51

AI is ok at poetry though:

"Jam at Last"

They said, “Just wait, the jam will come,”
While I endured the lean and glum—
No sweetness now, just toil and crust,
With only faith and stubborn trust.

Through market dips and dry debates,
I held my nerve, I watched the rates.
The brokers scoffed, the headlines roared,
But I just saved—and I ignored.

No flashy wins, no golden prize,
Just quiet growth beneath the skies.
A seed, a plan, a steady stream—
Not luck, but time, not hype, but scheme.

And then one dawn, without a shout,
The numbers climbed, the payout sprout.
Dividends dropped like morning rain,
And compound interest earned its name.

The jars I’d long imagined filled
With fruits of plans so slowly tilled.
What once was just a whispered lore,
Now spread in wealth I could adore.

Jam tomorrow? No—jam today.
At last the cost began to pay.
The future came, not fast, but true—
For those who wait, and follow through.

So let the reckless chase the now—
I’ll take the long, the sure, the how.
For patient hands and careful minds
Will harvest sweetness time refines.

[lavalmy] 11/7/2025 13:45:04

I just had a listen again to the relevant part from 14.00 minutes on. Three to four looking promising for this year, ranging from $2 million with the largest at $263 million. Cross referencing to the pipeline in the brokers note, we can eliminate the three largest of those. There isn't one of $2 million, but it would be immaterial in any case. The $263 million one looks like Africa £190 million, i.e. Kenya. That leaves potentially two others from the remaining five. One we can forget about as it is the BFAR. Leaving two at £5 million (the NSA in the Philippines and a new regional fisheries thing, Asia, whereabouts unknown) and two large ones - Kuwait phase two at £140 million and the Saudi RADAR thing at £100 million which I pretty much rule out for now. So that is another £330 million and loose change to the order book.

And then there was the comment about Europe for the future.

[lavalmy] 11/7/2025 13:19:34

I don't rate this AI stuff at all, at least in comparison to a reasonably intelligent person.

ST pretty much admitted that the forecast is not what they are expecting, but you can't blame them for underplaying their hand given the historics. Three things stand out. The forecasts are made on the basis of the existing contracts being spread over three years, but two is more likely. Data and maintenance revenues are understated, the latter lowish margin. And the elephant of several contracts expected to be signed this FY. Add to that the expectations from the broker's note of customers (plural) wanting to be invoiced ahead of work being done so as to be able to pay before their budget cycle ends and this mysterious customer who will be paying into a restricted account, both balance sheet improvements, and it looks like there will be a series of upgrades.

[yumyum] 11/7/2025 10:43:15

Thank you carcosa. AI is becoming useful. Once a new systems contract/s land then the upgraded profit forecast will very much surprise to the upside given the much improved margin outlook.

[carcosa] 11/7/2025 10:39:40

'So, this year in our systems, business is about executing on what we've got. I'm very focused with my delivery team, the product management team, and our system development team to deliver those projects to a very high standard to our customers who are extremely demanding, both in time and quality.'

I take that as meaning 2025 and 2026 calendar and FY

[alter ego] 11/7/2025 10:34:13

Thx Carcosa v useful. Just one point
🔹 Outlook
----------
- FY2025: Execution of existing backlog + potential for material upside if new deals convert.

Shouldn't that be FY2026 ?

[carcosa] 11/7/2025 10:25:10

Here is a summary of the webcast with the help of AI.
==============================================

🔹 Current Performance (FY2024 Results)
--------------------------------------
- Revenue: £77 million
- Profit before tax: ~£4.5 million
- First year showing full impact of the Systems division.
- FY2025 forecast:
- Revenue to grow by ~50%
- Profit expected to more than double
- All revenue in the forecast is underpinned by existing signed contracts (no assumptions for new wins).

🔹 Divisional Overview
----------------------

1. Systems Division (Integrated Maritime Domain Awareness – MDA)
----------------------------------------------------------------
- Provides national-scale surveillance systems integrating data from satellites, UAVs, towers, and vessels.
- 5 sovereign government customers currently live.
- £330 million worth of contracted revenue to be delivered, mostly over 2–3 years.
- £1.4 billion validated pipeline, including:
- Near-term opportunities (next 12 months): 3–4 deals between $2m–$263m
- Margins expected to improve significantly:
- Established support infrastructure allows incremental contracts to drop largely to the bottom line.
- Forecast includes no new contracts — any future wins will be additive.

2. Transceivers Division
------------------------
- Focused on individual vessel equipment and waterways (AIS, navigation aids).
- Global dealer network of 5,000+ resellers.
- New voice communication product ("Nexus") ready and launching soon under the em-trak brand:
- Passed all certifications, production-ready.
- Awaiting final functionality polish before release.
- Current contracts:
- New German waterway digitisation project underway.
- Pipeline and product development targeting:
- 30 million boats in the global leisure marine market.
- Future product launches to update existing offerings and capture voice/data crossover opportunities with the Systems business.

🔹 Key Strategic Points
------------------------
- All growth underpinned by a macro trend in maritime domain awareness (security, fisheries, autonomous shipping, etc.).
- Unique offering combining surveillance integration and analytics for persistent national-scale maritime awareness.
- Competitive advantage built on 10+ years of R&D investment and early market entry.
- New inquiries rising in Europe, driven by geopolitical shifts and increased defense spending.
- Business growth requires little outbound sales; demand is largely inbound from sovereign clients.

🔹 Cash Flow and Capital Allocation
-----------------------------------
- Company is now cash-positive.
- No immediate decision on dividend or share buybacks.
- Priority is balance sheet strengthening and operational delivery.

🔹 Outlook
----------
- FY2025: Execution of existing backlog + potential for material upside if new deals convert.
- Further announcements expected around November results and December AGM.
- Potential investor open day post-summer to showcase products and operations.