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[dangersimpson2] 19/10/2015 19:04

Stockopedia has 3 brokers named:

Seymour Pierce , Edison Investment Research Bridie Barrett , Charles Stanley Securities , Equity Development Ben Maitland , Cantor Fitzgerald Europe Ian Osburn ,

But only 1 Buy rating so maybe the other two have an EPS estimates but no rating.

Looks like the consensus has softened from c.5p in September to 4.3p today. Presumably as a response to the HY results.

Not that 1 year's EPS during a period of recovery makes a big difference to the long term value of the business.

[masurenguy] 19/10/2015 17:52

The only reference to a current stock analyst forecast I can find has a 12 month target of 100p.



Since the interims were published 4 weeks ago there has been no further news yet the price has drifted down by 20% from 87.5p since then on very light trading volumes. This just suggests boredom and general negative sentiment rather than any specific change to either fundamentals or prospects.

[masurenguy] 19/10/2015 14:55

Can you provide some verification to illustrate the trimmed broker forecasts that you refer to above

[boonkoh] 19/10/2015 13:04

Broker forecasts trimmed in the last few weeks. Fishy to me - sometimes brokers get visibility of bad news ahead and steers their forecasts down before a profit warning is actually released.

[jimbobjames2002] 19/10/2015 09:59

RSI is low at 25, share price has dipped over 20% in the last month. Any reason why? I know volumes are low but it looks overdone IMO. Holding but thinking of a topup as buys going through at under 70p now.

[topvest] 21/9/2015 21:08

The forecasts are for them to do c£1m profit in H2 versus £1m in H2 last year so they are not particularly demanding. Only risk, I guess, is any contract deferrals given the additional costs recently added. Overall, I think they should get to a £1m PBT this year which will be a bit up on last year and hopefully then they have a very good position going into 2016 with the new business as well. Always the chance that H2 overshoots given the amount of money in the economy at the moment though. Could be a very strong H2. Anyone's guess, but very happy to hold.

[cerrito] 21/9/2015 11:36

Agree with your sentiments Topvest . I can understand why price has fallen today but also am holding.
They talk about expectations for 2015 and my understanding is that eps are forecast to be 4.65p for 2015 which suggests that H 2015 should be a corker. Not sure what you folks regard are expectations.

[topvest] 21/9/2015 08:59

All quiet this morning. Interim results probably mildly disappointing, albeit H1 is always a low profit half. French contract opportunity looks encouraging though and looks like they are firmly back to their winning ways with this and the Network Rail contract. Looks like outlook is "in line" but that depends on the Autumn trading and new contracts no doubt given the extra costs taken on. Overall, looks better for 2016 than 2015 but happy to hold.

[paduardo] 07/9/2015 18:38

Emailed investor relations and got a reply back from Matthew Bending within a couple of hours :) Interim results sometime during the week of the 21st. There will be a rns released shortly once final date is confirmed. Later than last year as he is going to India on business. Must say I was very pleasantly surprised to get such a prompt response from the CEO.

[neilcrom] 05/9/2015 14:22

anybody in JLP ? expecting bank funding for huge low cost tailing projects next week/week after (worth 12p) and mining licence (worth 20p) expected the week after.

see webcast (in JLP website) where CEO confirmed NPV for huge platinum mine is worth 1.7billion (compared that with mcap of 27m) and JV discussion already underway,

could rerate like AMC from 2p to 20p plus

twitter on Friday confirming that several high-net-worth investors have increased their stake to almost 10m shares


worth watching and do dyor.

[zoolook] 05/9/2015 13:57

Its Concourse Initiatives rather than Concourse Innovations.

An alternative speculative take is that CI/JCD re-bid for the contract but SAL offered better terms which immediately puts SAL on the back foot with regard to out performing in profitability on the contract. Too much guesswork all round for my liking which is all we have to go on in the absence of clearer company guidance.

[topvest] 04/9/2015 20:00

Paul - interesting. Yes, things do look much better here now. The shares will get a re-rating when the market starts to believe their messaging again. This will take time, but they are doing everything right in my view. Interim results to look forward to in the next week or so as well.

[paulypilot] 04/9/2015 18:44

Hi,

Both the Cantors & ED research notes have been prepared on an extremely conservative basis, assuming that existing contracts are NOT renewed (as explained in the narrative to each).

This is because mgt at SAL don't want to issue any more profit warnings. Instead they have decided to issue forecasts (via the brokers) which are the base case scenario, with no new contract wins, and super-conservative on existing contracts.

I'm expecting the company to substantially out-perform in 2016, since the Network Rail contract could become quite big. The predecessor was a company called Concourse Innovations, a tiny company which was bought by JC Decaux, but still publishes its own accounts at Companies House, which I have looked at.
You can look them up for free, it's company no. 2917586.

Typically it generated annual turnover of £4m, and made a profit of £100-300k p.a. It employed just 10 people. So assuming its business was mainly the Network Rail contract, which seems reasonable, and assuming that SAL can generate more, and more profitable business from this contract (since they already have the overheads and contacts needed), then who knows what upside there could be?

I would be disappointed if SAL are not able to squeeze say £5m and £0.5m profit out of the NR contract by say 2017.

We should hopefully see the compamy thrash the super-conservative forecasts for 2016 too.

Fingers crossed!

Regards, Paul.

[cerrito] 04/9/2015 17:20

Their paid for research people have been active
hxxp://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/doc/1386.pdf

[qvg] 03/9/2015 22:02

Maddox and Topvest, you get my vote in this discussion!

[topvest] 03/9/2015 14:53

Not sure I agree with that sentiment. SAL has not had any loss making contracts. It's a good deal - quantum is uncertain. Hopefully they will win a few more as there is quite a bit of tender activity this year. I'm holding as these will be back to a growth rating within 12 months in my view.

[maddox] 03/9/2015 13:53

Absolutely, and you don't have to invest if that's your view. SAL must be ranked as a speculative investment and in light of past mistakes there can be no certainty at this very early stage of the contract. The point I'd reiterate is that with a large five year contract we should be able to see in their numbers whether they are executing successfully.

Regards, Maddox

[my retirement fund] 03/9/2015 10:14

Anyone can win a contract, you just need to be the highest bidder and offer the sweetest terms, whether you can actually deliver those terms or make any profit out of it is another thing and the problem here is that SAL have a poor track record

[zoolook] 02/9/2015 14:46

Cant decide whether this is transformational or a load of hot air so I've bailed out (again) and will watch from the sidelines.

[zoolook] 02/9/2015 14:40

So Titan Outdoor had the contract before and was also acquired by JC Deceaux !

Perhaps SAL is next in line ;-)

[zoolook] 02/9/2015 14:36

Thanks BrileyLoucan

Concourse can't have made much money out of the contract as their entire turnover was only £3million when JC Deceaux took them over in 2011