Spaceandpeople Share Discussion Threads

[naeclue] 01/2/2016 11:32

Happy to see that SAL is on course, and will be interested to see any revised guidance for next year. The company looks to have a great pipeline of building revenue - Network Rail, British Land, Immochan and Mobile Promotion Kiosks all looking likely to add significantly for the forthcoming year.

I'm also pleased to see that the drift in the share price over the last month or two was not due to leaking of news from within the company.

[masurenguy] 01/2/2016 08:48

A deferral of £150K promotional revenue from 2015 to 2016, to conform with conventional accounting standards, is hardly a "sneaky profit warning". This is really not material on sales on circa £14m and with the eps coming in at 4.3p, plus the proposed 10% increase in the dividend, this indicates that management confidently see growth to be on track for 2016.

[topvest] 01/2/2016 08:38

Excellent news. No mention of how Network Rail is going, but otherwise pretty good given the weak H1. Should set up 2016 very nicely indeed. British Land contract is promising.

[boonkoh] 01/2/2016 08:37

A sneaky profit warning hidden in a positive announcement! But great to see trading in Q4 in line and new contract win. This should be trading closer to 20x PE for 2015, which means it probably still has another 20% to rise over the next week or two as investors digest the news.

[masurenguy] 01/2/2016 08:31

Looking a lot better here - this could be a crucial year for further profitable growth but they will have to watch their cash position.

New Contract Win
SpaceandPeople has signed a multi-year contract, which commenced on 1st January 2016, to manage promotional space at British Land's Drake Circus Shopping Centre in Plymouth. SpaceandPeople expects to extend this contract across 40 other assets, covering the majority of British Land's multi-let retail portfolio in due course. Retail assets in the portfolio include Meadowhall, Sheffield; Ealing Broadway, London; Old Market, Hereford; Glasgow Fort, Glasgow; Fort Kinnaird, Edinburgh; Teeside, Stockton-on-Tees; Broughton, Chester; and New Mersey, Speke. Matthew Bending, SpaceandPeople CEO, said: "This is a significant win for SpaceandPeople, and will complement our existing business. Our team has a wealth of knowledge and we are looking forward to supporting British Land's vision of 'Places People Prefer' across the UK."

Trading Update
Trading in the second half of 2015 was in line with management expectations. Management expects profit before tax attributable to shareholders for the year to be approximately £1.0m. Whilst this is slightly below current market expectations, the principal reason for this is due to a timing difference following a decision to recognise an element of promotional revenue that is now derived from Mobile Promotions Kiosks ("MPKs") on the same basis as we recognise revenue from Retail Merchandising Units. This change has resulted in the deferral of GBP150k of net promotional revenues from 2015 to 2016. The decision to account for revenue in this manner gives management better sight of future revenue and will be the standard accounting treatment applied to this type of revenue going forward. During 2015 the new MPK concept was rolled out as planned with 46 units operational by the end of the year. A decision was also taken to accelerate our investment in France during the final quarter of 2015, in advance of the Immochan contract start date of 1 January 2016, which is expected to help drive revenue more effectively.

Despite these decisions, basic EPS is expected to be in line with market expectations at 4.3p and as a result, the Board intends to propose a final dividend of 2.2p per share at the forthcoming Annual General Meeting. This is a 10% increase on the 2.0p dividend paid in April 2015. After the investment of £650k in MPKs during 2015, net cash as at 31 December was £0.75m plus an additional £400k held in escrow (2014: 1.6m). Matthew Bending commented further: "2015 has been a transitional year for the business with a major contract being agreed with Network Rail for the first time, the successful launch of our MPK programme and the agreement with Immochan to launch a pilot scheme in France for the first time. The Company continues to progress and with the announcement of a new relationship with British Land we have had a positive start to 2016."

[knownowt] 01/2/2016 07:57

Actually, Dividend 2.2p up 10% which gives a yield in excess of 3%+

[pugugly] 01/2/2016 07:44

Trading stqatement now out - Looks OK Dividend 2p - Revenue recognition adjustments -

[masurenguy] 29/1/2016 09:12

A Y/E Pre-close trading update is overdue. During the past 3 years this has been issued between 23rd and 25th January. Therefore it must be imminent and should either be issued later today or Monday.

[pugugly] 29/1/2016 08:58

No news yet - Now 5 weeks since Christmas so they should have known the position by now - The lack of a trading report gives me concern - or am I being too paranoid ?

[topvest] 23/1/2016 21:13

It's all about 2016 now and so an ok profit for 2015 and a maintained or slightly increased dividend will do for me provided the outlook is good. Retail has been strong in recent months and with more money in people's pockets this is likely to be beneficial for SAL. Anyway we will find out next week no doubt.

[pugugly] 23/1/2016 15:38

MG.
Latest estimates (refs) for 2015 eps are Cantor (House broker) 4.1p and Edison 4.6p.

"As such, the Group is committing significant resources ahead of these commencement dates. These set-up costs incurred in the current year" As you kindly point out above.

Outcome will depend very much (imo) on how these costs are expensed - The notes to the accounts will be critical. If expensed fine - If significantly capitalised then (unspeakable word !!)

On Cantor'e estimate looking at a historic p/e of about 14 - High (imo) for fair value UNLESS outlook statement confirms consensus estimate of 5.99p for 2016 in which case if YES then significant upside.

(imo)

[masurenguy] 23/1/2016 15:08

"With substantial new contracts commencing in the final quarter of the year, we have been augmenting and developing our sales and administration teams over the last few months to ensure that we deliver a full service of the highest standard to these clients from the very start. As such, the Group is committing significant resources ahead of these commencement dates. These set-up costs incurred in the current year will enable us to deliver the best possible outcome for the duration of these contracts. Overall, we believe full year 2015 will be in line with expectations." H1 Reort 21/9/15

Christmas was virtually a month ago so they have had plenty of time to issue any profit warnings if performance deviated from H1 expectations quoted above. If they were to subsequently come out with a profit warning in the pre-close trading update then their credibility will be undermined following last years events and this time it would be very difficult to recover. Consequently I am hoping that we will see an update that is at least in line with prior expectations.

[pugugly] 23/1/2016 12:44

Drift continuing - now 54/57 region. Trading update should be due next week (last year on 23rd Jan)


If worse than expectations could get hammered in this current market - If only meets - subject to forward expecations - could continue to slide -

If better than expected possibly a 10%+ bounse given recent movements of other shares where the trading updates etc have been ahead of expectations. (all imo dyor no investment advise given or intended to be given just personal musings)

[topvest] 24/12/2015 14:08

Looking at their web-site it does look like the Network Rail contract started on 1 October without delay.
A few news stories from various train stations on their news section subsequent to this as well. So that bodes pretty well, I guess.
Paul Scott is also still holding - gets a mention in his SmallCap post today.

[topvest] 24/12/2015 13:55

Difficult to know I guess. Not expecting 2015 to be good personally, but think the 2016 outlook will be very strong. Any delay on the new contracts and they will probably miss expectations given they have staffed up. If I had to guess, I would probably side on a profit downgrade in 2015...that's what the share price is indicating I suppose. Of course it might be just a large holder trying to clear a holding and the uptrend is still intact chart wise if it holds 60p. I'm not selling as I believe in this company and there's a lot of potential in the now £12m market capitalisation. Hopefully they will at least hold the dividend. If they mess-up it's back to 40p. If the results are in line, probably 80p. Next year 100p+ target in my view.

[pugugly] 24/12/2015 11:43

Another 25K sold at 62p - Someone knows something ? or II selling down as no longer flavour of the year - If the latter could continue to drift until trading update - Then probably a sharp move - but which way?

[pugugly] 23/12/2015 20:51

Looks to be a continuous drip of selling at about 62 with some buying at 63.5 and 64. Possibly brownian motions? - Stale bears selling into hope? - but what do I know.

[topvest] 23/12/2015 20:09

They normally provide a trading update at the end of January, so a month to go before we get an update. Not expecting 2015 to be a great year, but hoping for much better things in 2016.

[jimbobjames2002] 23/12/2015 20:05

Still here, being patient too.

[topvest] 22/12/2015 10:42

Who knows. Just need to be patient. 2016 should be better than 2015.

[pugugly] 22/12/2015 10:18

Anyone still following - No psots for 2 months - Nor any indication on deployments for Christmas which should be peak business period for SAL.

Is no news good news or potentailly bad news ??

Thoughts - knowledge ??

[topvest] 21/10/2015 19:58

Yes, 4p is realistic in my view as they incur some extra costs with the new contracts. There is a chance they do much better next year though so definitely worth sticking with in my view. Should still get a good dividend as well. Maybe 2.5p.

[jon l] 19/10/2015 20:49

There is wide variation between the current (late September) broker EPS forecasts available to me.

2015: 4.1; 2016: 5.1 (House broker Cantor)
2015: 3.9; 2016: 6.0 (Equity Development)
2015: 4.6; 2016: 6.8 (Edison)

If you average them out as about 4.1 for this year and 6 for next, then this year's consensus forecast has indeed been shaded down to about the same as 2014, but the growth rate into 2016 is nearly 40% against a forward PE of 13. IMO the variance is so high that they, and we, are guessing. Small cap House brokers often under-forecast to allow the company to surprise upwards.

With a co so small I think the flow of news will matter more and the past several months has been encouraging.

[dangersimpson2] 19/10/2015 19:04

Stockopedia has 3 brokers named:

Seymour Pierce , Edison Investment Research Bridie Barrett , Charles Stanley Securities , Equity Development Ben Maitland , Cantor Fitzgerald Europe Ian Osburn ,

But only 1 Buy rating so maybe the other two have an EPS estimates but no rating.

Looks like the consensus has softened from c.5p in September to 4.3p today. Presumably as a response to the HY results.

Not that 1 year's EPS during a period of recovery makes a big difference to the long term value of the business.

[masurenguy] 19/10/2015 17:52

The only reference to a current stock analyst forecast I can find has a 12 month target of 100p.



Since the interims were published 4 weeks ago there has been no further news yet the price has drifted down by 20% from 87.5p since then on very light trading volumes. This just suggests boredom and general negative sentiment rather than any specific change to either fundamentals or prospects.