Spaceandpeople Share Discussion Threads

[qvg] 29/6/2015 09:29

Topvest
i would add Xaar to your list

[topvest] 28/6/2015 20:15

No, I don't think so. Most small companies go through a sticky patch every 5 years or so. Of course, some businesses have multiple profit warnings due to a structural decline, technological obsolescence, increased competition etc. I don't think that really applies to SAL.

[simonmoore595] 28/6/2015 20:11

would 2 profit warnings not be a massive sign that there are major issues? would this not be nothing short of a gamble of the share bouncing back?

[topvest] 28/6/2015 15:37

Yes, best time to buy a company is after a profit warning or two.

Generally best to buy when the share price has flattened out and you are reasonably confident that the warnings are out of the way.

Easier said than done, but those that I have liked recently are

SpaceandPeople - 2 warnings
Zytronic -1 warning
Produce Investments - 1 warning

You need to assess the reason for the warning and whether it is a temporary phenomenon or something more structural.

Patience is needed though. It takes about 2 years for a full recovery in the price; Zytronic is a good example. SpaceandPeople are only 6-12 months into recovery and so I don't expect the share price to fully regain past glories for another year or so unless we get many more contract wins.

[qvg] 28/6/2015 10:54

"I do think it's interesting that, when everyone hated this stock late last year, was actually the best time to have bought!"
Twas ever thus!

[paulypilot] 27/6/2015 12:40

Hi Redrumtum,

Indeed, people often talk rubbish about a company after it's warned on profits, because they are letting their emotions rule their head.

To my mind there are only two questions to ask management after a profit warning - (1) what has gone wrong?, and (2) what are you doing to fix it?

As reported in my SCVRs at the time, myself and a couple of other investors had a meeting with SAL management after the second profit warning last year, and we quizzed them on these issues. As I reported at the time, I was happy with their responses, and found them very open, even humble, about the things that had gone wrong. So all good. Also I was happy that they were doing the right things to fix the problems, and hence the shares were a hold (or even buy more, for the brave!) late last year.

But if you try telling other investors these things, they don't want to know!
Now if people want to get back in after the good news, they'll have to pay about double what they could have paid 9 months ago.

There's a bit more colour on the Network Rail deal here:



As the news only came out late on Fri afternoon, I suspect the share price rise could continue into Monday.

How much is the company worth? Who knows, but with only 19.5m shares in issue, I would have thought £1 a share is a reasonable short term target.

Profits? I reckon next year we could be looking at up to £2m profit, since the Network Rail contract will have kicked in from Oct 2014 (hopefully!), and also the new promotional kiosks will be getting rolled out, and remember they are higher margin than the existing kiosks.

So in my view this latest announcement draws a line under the problems in 2014, and the shares are justifiable being re-rated.

Well done to Matthew Bending & the team at SAL for getting things back on track.

Also bear in mind that SAL tends to pay out generous divis, so rising profits should mean a rising divi too.

I was worried in the past that SAL might be a counter-cyclical business, which does well in downturns, but is then marginalised in upturns. However, the latest deal has extinguished my worries on that score, so longer term I think there could be upside well beyond 100p. But one step at a time!

Have a good weekend all.

Regards, Paul.

[fillipe] 26/6/2015 19:48

Think about it, why would anyone sell here? It's now all to play for and a 10 days period of mild speculation and of course new broker forecasts on what we might now be worth, as a company.

f

[paulypilot] 26/6/2015 18:47

Thanks 1fox1! A super start to the weekend for us all too, so thanks to everyone at SAL for the good news re potential big contract win. Fingers crossed it goes through OK.

I do think it's interesting that, when everyone hated this stock late last year, was actually the best time to have bought! It's a good little company, with entrepreneurial management, so great to see them getting things back on track.

With small companies, things sometimes goes wrong, so important for investors not to throw out the baby with the bathwater, in my view.

Cheers, Paul.

[1fox1] 26/6/2015 18:25

Well done Pauly Pilot. Two in a week recovery stocks. NXR and SAL. A lesson in patience

[topvest] 26/6/2015 17:21

Nice to see that it is a 5 year contract as well. Obviously, they need to agree terms but if they are the preferred bidder that shouldn't be too onerous.

[topvest] 26/6/2015 17:19

This is great news. Definite evidence that they are turning the corner, if there ever was such a signal. They did say that there are significantly more tender opportunities this year so maybe this is first of a few.

[pugugly] 26/6/2015 16:17

There is the answer Significant contract - Ususal AIM stock News must have leaked. Up 25% but significant upward moves before the announcement at 4:05pm. Hummmmmmmmmm

QUESTION - What target value now ?

[topvest] 18/6/2015 21:17

Yes, good news. Things appear to be steadily looking up here.

[bsharman3] 18/6/2015 10:10

you got your good new this morning Masureguy! Let's hope for more to come.

[masurenguy] 18/5/2015 12:43

It's very quiet here. Over the past month less than 220,000 shares have been traded, which represents an average share volume of circa 11,000 per day. There is unlikely to be much in the way of price movement until it is driven by news.

[thebantamboy] 12/5/2015 12:10

I used one the kiosks and liked it, its the way they need to go and lovely high margin. I hope for a good recovery in this share over the next 6 months as performance improves.

[paulypilot] 25/4/2015 17:27

Management have learned from the mistakes last year, and changed their whole basis of forecasting. They now forecast only on existing contracts, and don't factor in any growth from new contract wins. This should mean that the company under-promises & over-delivers, hopefully.

It's going to take time for investor confidence to return here, but the company is now back on the right track, in my opinion.

So the in line trading update yesterday was pleasing.

Regards, Paul.

[topvest] 24/4/2015 19:09

Good solid update today. Seem to have resorted to less hype and more factual trading updates now after the bad experience of last year. All looks very encouraging if they are being cautious with their announcements.

[cerrito] 24/4/2015 15:19

Had been meaning to go to AGM but had to go to quack so missed it and would appreciate comments of anyone who made it.

[topvest] 07/4/2015 18:59

Yes I would agree. Be nice to hear of some contract wins as well as it has been quiet on that front, but flags increased opportunities this year.

[masurenguy] 07/4/2015 14:35

The recovery mode seems to have clearly reasserted itself since the fall on the results announcement two weeks ago. I don't think that response had any real significance since the trading volume on that day was less than 300K or circa 1.5% of the shares in issue. Absent any other unexpected bad news I would expect to see the shareprice back into three figures over the next 12 months.

[topvest] 30/3/2015 18:36

Yes, good comments by Paul. Fully agree that the big drop on the day of the results was difficult to understand. Things look well set for 2015. Hopefully they will have a contract win to announce at some point as well which will help sentiment.

[graham1ty] 30/3/2015 13:49

Paul Scott was very positive on Stockopedia over the weekend